Lucas Elissalt

P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #507MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	22	16	90	2.51	2.62	26.9%	9.4%	—	K 20.1% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.68
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	21	93	3.98	3.45	29.4%	9.1%	—	K 22.9% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.55
2027PROJ	23	MLBDET	12	12	65	4.62	4.62	22.2%	10.5%	0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBDET	7	7	37	4.43	4.38	22.7%	9.7%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBDET	10	10	58	4.34	4.29	23.1%	9.2%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$5M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command50FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 74%

CompsNoah Denoyer (age 23) · Pat Gallagher (age 23) · Cody Laweryson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%22.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD3050

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	90	372	100	35	4	73%	4.1	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.6%	2.51	3.68	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	90	372	100	35	4	73%	4.1	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.6%	2.51	3.68	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	16	90	372	100	35	4	73%	4.1	26.9%	9.4%	17.5%	1.1%	2.51	2.62	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	93	395	116	36	12	91%	4.0	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	3.8%	3.98	4.55	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	93	395	116	36	12	91%	4.0	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	3.8%	3.98	4.55	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	93	395	116	36	12	91%	4.0	29.4%	9.1%	20.3%	3.0%	3.98	3.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	DET	12	12	65	274	61	29	8	100%	5.4	22.2%	10.5%	11.7%	3.1%	4.62	4.62	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	86	361	82	35	11	100%	5.7	22.7%	9.7%	13.1%	3.0%	4.50	4.45	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	87	366	84	34	11	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.2%	13.8%	3.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	87	366	85	33	11	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	3.0%	4.36	4.33	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	85	360	83	33	11	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.1%	14.0%	3.1%	4.36	4.36	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	83	349	80	32	11	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.3%	13.8%	3.2%	4.41	4.45	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	79	334	83	29	11	100%	6.1	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	3.3%	4.35	4.31	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	74	314	77	28	11	100%	6.2	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	3.5%	4.43	4.49	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	69	293	70	27	11	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.7%	4.59	4.69	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	64	271	64	26	11	100%	5.8	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	4.0%	4.79	4.92	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	37	156	36	15	5	100%	5.3	22.7%	9.7%	13.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.38	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	58	245	56	23	7	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.2%	13.8%	2.9%	4.34	4.29	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	69	291	68	27	8	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	2.9%	4.29	4.26	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	73	308	71	28	9	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	74	312	72	29	9	100%	6.2	23.0%	9.3%	13.8%	3.0%	4.34	4.38	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	72	304	75	27	10	100%	6.0	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	3.2%	4.27	4.23	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	68	287	70	26	10	100%	6.2	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	3.4%	4.35	4.41	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	64	270	65	25	10	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.6%	4.50	4.60	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	60	253	60	25	10	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.8%	4.70	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	96	574	2424	573	224	77	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.2%	4.38	4.02	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	78	27	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.2%	4.38	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		45	37	182	767	165	82	21	82%	4.1	21.5%	10.7%	10.9%	2.7%	3.26	4.13	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	41	200	841	181	90	23	82%	4.1	21.5%	10.7%	10.9%	2.7%	3.26	4.13	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Elissalt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	22.2%	10.5%	3.1%	—	4.38	23.0%	13.7%	259	-0.24	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	89
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	89
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	87
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	87
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	87
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	86
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	85
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	85
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	85
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	84
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	84
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	84
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	84
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	84
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	83
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	78	23.4%	9.4%	1.26	4.47
Wes Stock ('59-'67, 2 WAR*)	2.6	74	22.3%*	9.6%*	1.29*	4.22*
Vicente Romo ('68-'82, 5 WAR*)	3.2	81	20.5%*	9.7%*	1.21*	4.01*
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Juan Nicasio ('20)	3.6	80	21.3%	8.3%	1.04	4.71
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48