Gabriel Paez

P FCL Rays

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 183 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKTB	12	5	23	7.15	4.82	21.2%	25.7%	—	K 14.4% · BB 32.1% · FIP 5.94
2026	20	ROKTB	8	6	21	6.75	4.60	19.4%	14.8%	—	K 13.2% · BB 18.5% · FIP 5.75
2027PROJ	21	MLBTB	3	3	13	5.98	5.98	19.5%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTB	2	2	11	5.56	5.40	21.0%	16.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsSpencer Giesting (age 21) · Dominic Scheffler (age 20) · Colby Langford (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130139vR 147

ERA5.98

FIP5.98

K%19.5%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.5%

Proj IP13

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	4	0	4	23	6	8	0	0%	1.0	26.1%	34.8%	-8.7%	0.0%	18.00	5.30	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	4	0	4	23	6	8	0	0%	1.0	26.1%	34.8%	-8.7%	0.0%	18.00	5.30	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	4	0	4	23	6	8	0	0%	1.0	26.1%	34.8%	-8.7%	0.0%	18.00	6.10	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	5	23	113	24	29	0	42%	1.9	14.4%	32.1%	-17.6%	0.0%	7.15	5.94	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	5	23	113	24	29	0	42%	1.9	14.4%	32.1%	-17.6%	0.0%	7.15	5.94	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	12	5	23	113	24	29	0	42%	1.9	21.2%	25.7%	-4.4%	0.0%	7.15	4.82	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	8	6	21	108	21	16	2	75%	2.7	13.2%	18.5%	-5.3%	2.6%	6.75	5.75	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	8	6	21	108	21	16	2	75%	2.7	13.2%	18.5%	-5.3%	2.6%	6.75	5.75	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	8	6	21	108	21	16	2	75%	2.7	19.4%	14.8%	4.6%	1.9%	6.75	4.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TB	3	3	13	55	11	11	2	100%	4.3	19.5%	20.0%	-0.5%	2.9%	5.98	5.98	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	4	4	21	90	19	15	3	100%	5.3	21.0%	16.6%	4.4%	2.9%	5.56	5.40	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	2	2	11	46	10	8	1	100%	5.5	21.0%	16.6%	4.4%	2.9%	5.56	5.40	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	44	9	7	1	100%	5.3	21.0%	16.6%	4.4%	2.9%	5.56	5.02	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	171	133	19	100%	5.1	21.0%	16.6%	4.4%	2.9%	5.56	5.02	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		24	11	48	244	37	64	3	46%	2.0	15.0%	26.3%	-11.3%	1.1%	7.88	5.80	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	46	200	1017	153	268	12	46%	2.0	15.0%	26.3%	-11.3%	1.1%	7.88	5.80	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Paez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.98	19.5%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.40	21.0%	4.4%	21	-0.58	—	—	—
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	84
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	80
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	80
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	79
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	78
Ryan Anderson L 2021 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP-	5.71	14.7%	26.1%	1.0%	.373	3.73	20.3%	11.0%	149	-1.98	2.80	214	76
Holden Laws L 2021 · 6.35 FIP	21	SP-	6.35	19.3%	15.6%	5.3%	.306	4.71	17.5%	7.1%	133	-1.64	2.96	190	73
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	72
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	72
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	72
Roberto Medina L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	19	SW	5.29	18.5%	19.6%	2.3%	.254	5.91	15.1%	-2.7%	45	+0.62	3.87	109	70
Joseph Herrera L 2024 · 5.50 FIP	18	SW	5.50	13.0%	20.5%	1.6%	.325	5.55	13.6%	-4.1%	67	+0.05	4.67	105	70
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	70
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	69
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	68
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	68
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	68
Javier Navas L 2017 · 6.10 FIP	19	SW	6.10	11.1%	19.7%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	103	68
Javier Atencio L 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP-	5.66	12.9%	18.4%	2.4%	.387	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	68
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	68