Roberto Medina — OGILVIE

Roberto Medina P FCL Rays

Age 21 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 136

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%20.6%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	11	11	37	167	53	29	2	100%	3.3	21.6%	21.7%	-0.1%	1.5%	3.68	4.85	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	11	11	37	167	53	29	2	100%	3.3	21.6%	21.7%	-0.1%	1.5%	3.68	4.85	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	11	11	37	167	53	29	2	100%	3.3	31.7%	17.4%	14.4%	1.2%	3.68	3.29	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	2	28	121	33	19	2	18%	2.5	18.5%	19.6%	-1.1%	2.3%	4.18	5.29	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	2	28	121	33	19	2	18%	2.5	18.5%	19.6%	-1.1%	2.3%	4.18	5.29	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	11	2	28	121	33	19	2	18%	2.5	27.3%	15.7%	11.6%	1.7%	4.18	3.71	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	17	0	25	109	24	14	0	0%	1.5	15.0%	16.1%	-1.1%	0.0%	2.92	3.87	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	17	0	25	109	24	14	0	0%	1.5	15.0%	16.1%	-1.1%	0.0%	2.92	3.87	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	17	0	25	109	24	14	0	0%	1.5	22.0%	12.8%	9.2%	0.0%	2.92	2.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	16	0	20	94	21	15	5	0%	1.2	15.2%	19.9%	-4.8%	7.4%	6.30	8.43	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	16	0	20	94	21	15	5	0%	1.2	15.2%	19.9%	-4.8%	7.4%	6.30	8.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	TB	16	0	20	94	21	15	5	0%	1.2	22.3%	16.0%	6.4%	5.3%	6.30	6.15	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	25	0	26	112	24	16	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.9%	7.9%	2.8%	5.09	4.96	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	12	0	13	55	12	8	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.9%	7.9%	2.8%	5.09	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	55	12	8	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.9%	7.9%	2.8%	5.09	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	123	31	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.9%	7.9%	2.8%	5.09	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		55	13	109	491	89	96	12	24%	2.0	18.1%	19.6%	-1.5%	2.5%	4.12	5.43	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	24	200	898	163	176	22	24%	2.0	18.1%	19.6%	-1.5%	2.5%	4.12	5.43	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roberto Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	20.6%	16.2%	2.9%	—	4.96	21.8%	7.9%	26	-0.43	—	—	—
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	84
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	84
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	84
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	83
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	82
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	284	81
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	81
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	80
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	80
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	79
Blake Townsend L 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	18.3%	17.5%	3.8%	.170	3.73	18.1%	8.4%	167	-2.10	3.34	305	79
Yoldin De La Paz L 2023 · 4.38 FIP	21	SU	4.38	17.8%	15.8%	1.4%	.339	4.32	17.7%	10.5%	44	-0.06	3.51	124	79
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	79
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	79
Nick Jones L 2022 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	22.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.284	3.63	21.7%	12.0%	143	-0.58	1.32	201	79
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	79
Felix Polanco L 2021 · 5.49 FIP	21	SU	5.49	16.1%	13.0%	3.8%	.275	4.39	18.8%	6.2%	51	-1.10	3.68	105	78
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	78
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	78