Joseph Herrera
P
Lake Elsinore Storm
Age 20
LHP
5'8" / 145 lbs
A
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%22.2%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Brown | 13 | 5 | 38 | 189 | 36 | 31 | 2 | 38% | 2.9 | 13.0% | 20.5% | -7.6% | 1.8% | 5.50 | 5.60 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Brown | 13 | 5 | 38 | 189 | 36 | 31 | 2 | 38% | 2.9 | 19.0% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 5.50 | 4.35 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 8 | 3 | 20 | 93 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 38% | 2.5 | 13.2% | 14.8% | -1.6% | 1.5% | 5.49 | 4.66 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 8 | 3 | 20 | 93 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 38% | 2.5 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 1.1% | 5.49 | 3.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 28 | 0 | 38 | 179 | 34 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.3% | 16.3% | -3.0% | 4.5% | 8.60 | 6.50 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | SD | 15 | 0 | 15 | 65 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.50 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | SD | — | — | 53 | 244 | 48 | 33 | 7 | — | — | 19.9% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 7.42 | 5.92 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SD | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 3.97 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 49 | 8 | 95 | 461 | 60 | 82 | 13 | 16% | 1.9 | 13.1% | 17.7% | -4.6% | 2.8% | 6.73 | 5.76 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 17 | 200 | 971 | 127 | 172 | 27 | 16% | 1.9 | 13.1% | 17.7% | -4.6% | 2.8% | 6.73 | 5.76 | -0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joseph Herrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.35 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 20 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Denny Bentley L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 85 |
| Harry Gustin L 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .331 | 4.42 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 89 | +0.45 | 3.77 | 132 | 84 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 84 |
| Connor Curlis L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.49 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 1.2% | .306 | 6.24 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 172 | +2.75 | 3.49 | 309 | 82 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.09 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .208 | 4.77 | 16.8% | 7.4% | 223 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 82 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 4.85 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.38 | 3.47 | 212 | 82 |
| Vance Tatum L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .319 | 5.18 | 15.6% | 2.3% | 85 | +0.14 | 4.80 | 116 | 81 |
| Zach Morris L 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.59 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 1.4% | .286 | 4.59 | 13.9% | 2.4% | 84 | +1.00 | 3.40 | 109 | 80 |
| Oddanier Mosqueda L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.65 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .308 | 4.15 | 25.7% | 14.1% | 106 | +0.50 | 3.05 | 433 | 80 |
| Drew Harrington L 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.18 | 15.7% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .295 | 4.11 | 12.5% | 5.4% | 175 | -0.07 | 3.19 | 190 | 79 |
| Garvin Alston L 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.29 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.76 | 16.4% | 2.9% | 84 | +0.47 | 4.01 | 232 | 79 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 79 |
| Sean Mellen L 2029 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 79 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.99 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .250 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.93 | 319 | 79 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2029 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.67 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.08 | 2.51 | 119 | 79 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.31 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .341 | 3.53 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.78 | 3.41 | 265 | 78 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2029 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.4% | .294 | 2.76 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.76 | 2.17 | 310 | 78 |
| Kenny Rosenberg L 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.65 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .313 | 4.79 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 361 | +1.14 | 3.34 | 755 | 78 |
| Dominic LoBrutto L 2028 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.31 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .333 | 3.51 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 84 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 135 | 78 |
| Johnathan Frebis L 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.81 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 1.8% | .245 | 4.25 | 9.7% | -0.6% | 124 | +0.44 | 3.81 | 146 | 78 |