Joseph Herrera

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 LHP 5'8" / 145 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Padres Br…	13	5	38	5.50	4.35	19.0%	16.4%	—	K 13.0% · BB 20.5% · FIP 5.50
2025	19	ROKSD	8	3	20	5.49	3.61	19.4%	11.8%	—	K 13.2% · BB 14.8% · FIP 4.67
2026	20	MIX2 levels	33	0	48	7.55	4.93	18.9%	15.9%	—	K 13.8% · BB 19.0% · FIP 5.92
2027PROJ	21	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.87	5.87	17.0%	17.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSD	15	0	16	5.48	5.33	19.1%	14.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBSD	22	0	23	5.14	4.97	20.5%	12.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBrayan Restituyo (age 21) · Austin Hamilton (age 23) · Matt Minnick (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128137vR 145

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%17.0%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%-0.3%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	13	5	38	189	36	31	2	38%	2.9	13.0%	20.5%	-7.6%	1.6%	5.50	5.50	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	13	5	38	189	36	31	2	38%	2.9	13.0%	20.5%	-7.6%	1.6%	5.50	5.50	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	13	5	38	189	36	31	2	38%	2.9	19.0%	16.4%	2.6%	1.1%	5.50	4.35	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	8	3	20	93	18	11	1	38%	2.5	13.2%	14.8%	-1.6%	1.5%	5.49	4.67	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	8	3	20	93	18	11	1	38%	2.5	13.2%	14.8%	-1.6%	1.5%	5.49	4.67	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	8	3	20	93	18	11	1	38%	2.5	19.4%	11.8%	7.5%	1.1%	5.49	3.61	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	48	227	43	36	5	0%	1.4	13.8%	19.0%	-5.2%	2.9%	7.55	5.92	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	48	227	43	36	5	0%	1.4	13.8%	19.0%	-5.2%	2.9%	7.55	5.92	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	48	227	43	36	5	0%	1.4	18.9%	15.9%	3.1%	2.2%	7.55	4.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.0%	17.2%	-0.3%	3.0%	5.87	5.87	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	31	0	32	136	26	20	4	0%	1.0	19.1%	14.6%	4.5%	2.9%	5.48	5.33	-0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	SD	31	0	32	136	28	17	4	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.9%	7.6%	2.9%	5.14	4.97	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	15	0	16	68	13	10	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	14.6%	4.5%	2.9%	5.48	5.33	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	SD	22	0	23	97	20	12	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.9%	7.6%	2.9%	5.14	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	0	39	166	33	23	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	13.6%	6.4%	2.9%	5.28	4.73	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	117	25	0%	1.0	19.9%	13.6%	6.4%	2.9%	5.28	4.73	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		54	8	105	509	68	96	11	15%	1.9	13.3%	18.8%	-5.4%	2.2%	6.43	5.53	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	15	200	970	129	182	21	15%	1.9	13.3%	18.8%	-5.4%	2.2%	6.43	5.53	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 37 IPFIP 5.01 → 6.23 (+1.22)K% 18.6% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.64%	—	×0.740	13.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.25%	—	×1.180	18.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.01 → 6.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Padres · 11 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.80 (+1.11)K% 20.0% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.680	13.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.00%	—	×1.250	22.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Padres · 20 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.67 (+1.12)K% 19.4% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.35%	—	×0.680	13.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.83%	—	×1.250	14.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.018	×1.400	1.48%

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Padres Brown · 38 IPFIP 4.15 → 5.50 (+1.35)K% 19.0% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.680	12.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.40%	—	×1.250	20.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.908	×1.400	1.63%

Result: FIP 4.15 → 5.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joseph Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	17.0%	17.2%	3.0%	—	5.15	19.8%	6.1%	64	-0.72	—	—	—
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	89
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	85
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	84
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	83
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	83
Yenfri Sosa L 2024 · 6.08 FIP	20	SU	6.08	19.0%	21.3%	3.4%	.309	4.41	21.7%	7.4%	38	-1.67	2.49	128	83
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	82
Blake Townsend L 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	18.3%	17.5%	3.8%	.170	3.73	18.1%	8.4%	167	-2.10	3.34	305	82
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	81
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	81
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	80
Luis Silva L 2018 · 5.05 FIP	21	SU	5.05	14.1%	13.4%	2.6%	.311	6.59	8.7%	-7.4%	12	+1.54	4.48	107	80
Roberto Medina L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	19	SW	5.29	18.5%	19.6%	2.3%	.254	5.91	15.1%	-2.7%	45	+0.62	3.87	109	80
Boone Logan L 2006 · 4.69 FIP	21	SU	4.69	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	.302	4.14	17.2%	10.5%	110	-0.55	2.58	442	80
Felix Polanco L 2021 · 5.49 FIP	21	SU	5.49	16.1%	13.0%	3.8%	.275	4.39	18.8%	6.2%	51	-1.10	3.68	105	79
Andre Davis L 2015 · 6.34 FIP	21	SU	6.34	13.6%	16.7%	4.2%	.384	4.43	17.5%	9.9%	127	-1.91	4.14	154	79
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	79
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	79
Deyer Zapata L 2024 · 5.79 FIP	20	SU	5.79	18.0%	15.3%	4.1%	.319	3.77	16.2%	7.0%	15	-2.02	3.77	130	79
Wilgenis Alvarado L 2021 · 6.38 FIP	21	SU	6.38	11.6%	21.1%	2.9%	.342	4.70	17.3%	1.4%	45	-1.68	4.70	122	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	29	19.1%	14.7%	1.14	5.46
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*