Joseph Herrera — OGILVIE

Joseph Herrera P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 20 LHP 5'8" / 145 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%19.0%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%3.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	13	5	38	189	36	31	2	38%	2.9	13.0%	20.5%	-7.6%	1.6%	5.50	5.50	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	13	5	38	189	36	31	2	38%	2.9	13.0%	20.5%	-7.6%	1.6%	5.50	5.50	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	13	5	38	189	36	31	2	38%	2.9	19.0%	16.4%	2.6%	1.1%	5.50	4.35	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	8	3	20	93	18	11	1	38%	2.5	13.2%	14.8%	-1.6%	1.5%	5.49	4.67	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	8	3	20	93	18	11	1	38%	2.5	13.2%	14.8%	-1.6%	1.5%	5.49	4.67	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	8	3	20	93	18	11	1	38%	2.5	19.4%	11.8%	7.5%	1.1%	5.49	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	33	0	48	227	43	36	5	0%	1.4	13.8%	19.0%	-5.2%	2.9%	7.55	5.92	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	33	0	48	227	43	36	5	0%	1.4	13.8%	19.0%	-5.2%	2.9%	7.55	5.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	SD	6	0	11	50	10	9	0	0%	1.8	20.0%	18.0%	2.0%	0.0%	6.55	3.69	—
2026	20	A RAW	SD	27	0	37	177	33	27	5	0%	1.4	18.6%	15.3%	3.4%	2.8%	7.85	5.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	47	0	49	207	42	29	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	13.9%	6.2%	2.9%	5.22	5.12	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	49	0	52	217	46	27	6	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.2%	9.2%	2.8%	4.93	4.77	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	SD	51	0	53	225	50	25	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	2.8%	4.69	4.54	+0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	SD	52	0	55	231	53	24	6	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.39	+0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	SD	53	0	55	234	54	23	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.38	4.29	+0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	SD	53	0	55	234	55	23	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	2.7%	4.31	4.27	+0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	SD	23	0	24	101	20	14	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	13.9%	6.2%	2.9%	5.22	5.12	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	36	0	38	160	34	20	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.2%	9.2%	2.8%	4.93	4.77	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	SD	43	0	45	190	42	21	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	2.8%	4.69	4.54	+0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	SD	47	0	49	207	47	21	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.39	+0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	SD	49	0	51	215	50	21	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.38	4.29	+0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	SD	50	0	52	220	51	22	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	2.7%	4.31	4.27	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		246	0	258	1089	244	119	30	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	2.8%	4.60	4.11	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	92	23	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	2.8%	4.60	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		54	8	105	509	68	96	11	15%	1.9	13.3%	18.8%	-5.4%	2.2%	6.43	5.53	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	15	200	970	129	182	21	15%	1.9	13.3%	18.8%	-5.4%	2.2%	6.43	5.53	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joseph Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	19.0%	16.0%	2.9%	—	4.80	21.2%	8.9%	154	-0.71	—	—	—
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	84
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	284	83
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	83
Daniel Gonzalez L 2022 · 5.66 FIP	20	SU	5.66	16.3%	14.0%	3.9%	.310	4.44	23.2%	1.7%	55	-1.22	4.34	136	83
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	82
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	81
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	81
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	79
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	79
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	78
Zach Matson L 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	14.4%	10.9%	2.0%	.319	4.72	25.2%	10.0%	68	+0.33	4.39	187	77
Ignacio Briceno L 2021 · 5.16 FIP	20	SU	5.16	12.7%	12.9%	2.7%	.230	3.33	17.0%	7.2%	82	-1.83	2.39	156	77
Yordy Herrera L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	18	SU	4.98	20.6%	23.1%	1.3%	.283	4.88	21.2%	1.8%	117	-0.10	3.87	163	77
Riger Fernandez L 2018 · 4.61 FIP	20	SU	4.61	17.2%	19.5%	0.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	164	77
Oriel Castro L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	20	SW	4.95	19.6%	19.0%	2.0%	.390	5.41	16.3%	-0.1%	41	+0.46	4.63	129	76
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	76
Davis Schwab L 2019 · 4.46 FIP	22	SU	4.46	13.6%	13.8%	1.4%	.368	5.22	18.9%	-0.8%	92	+0.76	4.46	114	76
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	76
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	75
Harold Melenge L 2021 · 4.55 FIP	19	SU	4.55	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.297	3.44	16.4%	10.2%	89	-1.11	2.69	238	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	48	22.1%	11.4%	1.08	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84