CD Pelham

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 32 LHP 6'6" / 238 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	10	0	10	1.80	3.40	26.7%	20.0%	—	K 26.7% · BB 20.0% · FIP 3.38
2025	30	AAOAK	41	0	39	3.43	2.69	28.0%	7.7%	—	K 22.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.39
2026	31	MIX2 levels	48	2	58	3.43	3.45	21.7%	13.6%	—	K 18.3% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.68
2027PROJ	32	MLBPIT	3	0	3	4.54	4.54	19.4%	11.2%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBPIT	9	0	9	4.67	4.77	19.3%	11.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Zach Phillips (age 32) · Adam Liberatore (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%19.4%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	16	0	18	87	24	13	1	0%	1.1	18.8%	18.7%	0.1%	1.6%	5.40	4.77	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	16	0	18	87	24	13	1	0%	1.1	27.6%	14.9%	12.6%	1.1%	5.40	3.32	—
2017	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	37	0	62	263	75	26	6	0%	1.7	21.1%	11.7%	9.4%	2.9%	3.18	4.39	—
2017	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	37	0	62	263	75	26	6	0%	1.7	28.5%	9.9%	18.6%	2.3%	3.18	3.20	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	0	54	252	60	29	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.7%	5.8%	0.5%	4.14	3.47	+0.7
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	0	54	252	60	29	1	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.5%	12.3%	0.4%	4.14	2.73	+1.2
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	32	188	37	38	6	0%	0.8	16.2%	21.9%	-5.7%	3.3%	11.97	6.31	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	32	188	37	38	6	0%	0.8	19.7%	20.2%	-0.5%	3.2%	11.97	6.75	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	41	174	41	25	4	0%	1.4	20.1%	13.2%	6.9%	3.6%	4.35	5.04	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	41	174	41	25	4	0%	1.4	23.6%	14.4%	9.2%	2.3%	4.35	4.19	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	0	14	64	16	9	1	0%	0.8	25.0%	14.1%	10.9%	1.6%	7.53	3.63	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	0	14	64	16	9	1	0%	0.8	25.0%	14.1%	10.9%	1.6%	7.53	3.66	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	10	45	12	9	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	1.80	3.38	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	10	45	12	9	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	1.80	3.38	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	10	45	12	9	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	1.80	3.40	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	41	0	39	168	47	13	3	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.5%	14.1%	2.1%	3.43	3.39	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	41	0	39	168	47	13	3	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.5%	14.1%	2.1%	3.43	3.39	—
2025	30	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	41	0	39	168	47	13	3	0%	1.0	28.0%	7.7%	20.2%	1.8%	3.43	2.69	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	2	58	235	51	32	2	4%	1.2	18.3%	12.6%	5.7%	1.0%	3.43	3.68	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	2	58	235	51	32	2	4%	1.2	18.3%	12.6%	5.7%	1.0%	3.43	3.68	—
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	2	58	235	51	32	2	4%	1.2	21.7%	13.6%	8.1%	0.9%	3.43	3.45	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	8	38	7	3	0	0%	0.8	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	0.0%	7.04	2.45	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	PIT	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.4%	11.2%	8.2%	2.3%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	PIT	23	0	24	101	19	12	3	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	2.7%	4.67	4.77	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	PIT	9	0	9	38	7	4	1	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	2.7%	4.67	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	16	75	14	7	1	0%	0.9	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	1.3%	5.78	3.46	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		223	0	200	913	170	85	12	0%	0.9	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	1.3%	5.78	3.46	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		297	2	330	1476	295	208	30	1%	1.1	20.0%	14.1%	6.0%	2.0%	4.69	4.29	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		180	1	200	895	179	126	18	1%	1.1	20.0%	14.1%	6.0%	2.0%	4.69	4.29	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 44 IPFIP 3.68 → 3.75 (+0.07)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.78%	—	×0.860	17.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×0.900	13.85%
HR / BF /BF	0.55%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.60%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 14 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.46 (+0.76)K% 28.3% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.30%	—	×0.810	22.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.100	8.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 39 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.39 (+0.69)K% 28.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.98%	—	×0.810	22.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.74%	—	×1.100	8.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.043	×1.200	2.06%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 9 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.64 (+0.65)K% 26.8% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.83%	—	×0.810	21.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.07%	—	×1.100	18.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 9 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.69 (+1.18)K% 24.4% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.810	19.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.78%	—	×1.100	19.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.820	×1.200	3.25%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATennessee Smokies · 32 IPFIP 4.18 → 5.04 (+0.86)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.81%	—	×0.810	20.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.03%	—	×1.100	13.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷1.010	×1.200	3.57%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 10 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.57 (+0.34)K% 19.5% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.51%	—	×0.880	17.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.95%	—	×1.050	23.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 22 IPFIP 5.51 → 6.14 (+0.63)K% 23.4% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.44%	—	×0.810	18.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.09%	—	×1.100	23.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.208	×1.200	3.10%

Result: FIP 5.51 → 6.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
CD Pelham (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	19.4%	11.2%	2.3%	—	4.77	19.3%	7.8%	24	+0.23	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	86
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	81
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	80
Jack Taschner L 2010 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	18.1%	11.7%	3.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	189	79
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	79
Yorkis Perez L 2000 · 4.85 FIP	32	SU	4.85	18.9%	10.8%	3.6%	.284	4.54	20.8%	10.0%	27	-0.31	3.18	269	77
Hideki Okajima L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	32	SU	3.49	23.3%	8.5%	2.3%	.253	4.09	18.4%	11.4%	107	+0.60	3.05	238	77
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	76
Doug Creek L 2001 · 4.48 FIP	32	SU	4.48	23.7%	15.8%	2.5%	.272	4.99	20.3%	7.6%	69	+0.51	4.48	277	75
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	75
Kelly Wunsch L 2003 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	20.6%	13.1%	0.6%	.152	3.82	21.0%	9.6%	24	+0.46	3.36	175	75
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	74
Dan Runzler L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	32	SU	4.20	17.5%	11.0%	2.1%	.325	4.84	16.0%	3.0%	27	+0.64	2.84	187	74
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	70
Tim Byrdak L 2005 · 3.45 FIP	31	SU	3.45	23.7%	15.3%	0.8%	.329	4.31	22.0%	10.7%	100	+0.86	2.85	320	70
Pedro Borbón L 2000 · 5.20 FIP	32	SU	5.20	13.6%	15.5%	2.4%	.274	4.23	21.1%	15.5%	104	-0.97	2.26	264	69
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	69
Valerio De Los Santos L 2005 · 5.03 FIP	32	SU	5.03	15.5%	8.7%	3.9%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	239	69
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	69
Scott Rice L 2014 · 4.38 FIP	32	SU	4.38	19.7%	16.7%	1.5%	.341	3.67	22.9%	5.7%	40	-0.71	3.10	104	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	19.2%	11.2%	0.83	4.89
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*