John Holobetz — OGILVIE

John Holobetz P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION115 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.95

FIP3.95

K%17.8%

BB%3.8%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$16M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	18.5%	4.6%	14.0%	2.2%	3.03	3.34	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	18.5%	4.6%	14.0%	2.2%	3.03	3.34	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	24.0%	4.0%	20.0%	2.0%	3.03	2.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	25	23	115	485	124	34	16	92%	4.6	20.8%	7.3%	13.5%	3.9%	4.23	4.39	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	25	23	115	485	124	34	16	92%	4.6	20.8%	7.3%	13.5%	3.9%	4.23	4.39	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	BOS	17	15	79	331	93	25	11	88%	4.6	28.1%	7.6%	20.5%	3.3%	4.33	3.51	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	BOS	8	8	36	154	31	9	5	100%	4.5	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	3.2%	4.00	3.92	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BOS	1	1	7	31	6	1	1	100%	7.4	17.8%	3.8%	14.0%	2.7%	3.95	3.95	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	122	516	130	35	17	—	—	25.1%	6.8%	18.3%	3.3%	4.21	4.36	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	114	481	89	19	13	100%	6.0	18.6%	4.0%	14.5%	2.7%	3.95	3.92	+1.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	114	481	92	21	13	100%	6.0	19.0%	4.3%	14.8%	2.8%	3.95	3.93	+1.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	112	474	91	21	13	100%	5.9	19.2%	4.5%	14.6%	2.8%	3.97	3.98	+1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	109	460	88	22	13	100%	6.1	19.1%	4.8%	14.4%	2.9%	4.03	4.07	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	104	439	83	22	13	100%	6.1	18.9%	5.0%	13.9%	3.1%	4.13	4.20	+0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	98	413	77	22	13	100%	6.1	18.5%	5.3%	13.2%	3.3%	4.28	4.38	+0.6
2033	31	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	91	385	70	22	13	100%	6.1	18.1%	5.6%	12.5%	3.5%	4.46	4.58	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	84	356	63	22	13	100%	6.0	17.7%	6.0%	11.6%	3.7%	4.67	4.81	+0.1
2035	33	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	77	327	63	19	13	100%	6.0	19.2%	5.7%	13.5%	4.0%	4.74	4.79	+0.1
2036	34	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	70	297	55	18	13	100%	5.9	18.6%	6.2%	12.5%	4.3%	4.93	5.06	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	50	211	39	9	6	100%	5.6	18.6%	4.0%	14.5%	2.7%	3.91	3.88	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	76	321	61	14	9	100%	5.8	19.0%	4.3%	14.8%	2.7%	3.91	3.89	+0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	87	367	70	17	10	100%	6.2	19.2%	4.5%	14.6%	2.7%	3.93	3.94	+1.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	92	388	74	18	11	100%	6.1	19.1%	4.8%	14.4%	2.8%	3.99	4.03	+0.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	91	384	73	19	11	100%	6.1	18.9%	5.0%	13.9%	3.0%	4.09	4.16	+0.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	88	372	69	20	12	100%	5.9	18.5%	5.3%	13.2%	3.2%	4.24	4.34	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	83	350	64	20	12	100%	5.9	18.1%	5.6%	12.5%	3.4%	4.41	4.53	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	78	329	58	20	12	100%	6.0	17.7%	6.0%	11.6%	3.7%	4.62	4.76	+0.1
2035	33	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	72	304	58	17	12	100%	6.0	19.2%	5.7%	13.5%	3.9%	4.68	4.73	+0.1
2036	34	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	63	266	50	16	11	100%	6.3	18.6%	6.2%	12.5%	4.2%	4.87	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	130	781	3298	617	170	106	100%	6.0	18.7%	5.2%	13.6%	3.2%	4.25	3.94	+9.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	44	27	100%	6.0	18.7%	5.2%	13.6%	3.2%	4.25	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		48	42	240	984	194	58	30	88%	5.0	19.7%	5.9%	13.7%	3.0%	3.61	3.85	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	35	200	821	162	49	25	88%	5.0	19.7%	5.9%	13.7%	3.0%	3.61	3.85	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Holobetz (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.95	17.8%	3.8%	2.7%	—	3.94	18.9%	14.6%	340	-0.01	—	—	—
Nick Fraze R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP	3.86	17.3%	3.5%	3.2%	.261	5.14	16.9%	6.5%	157	+1.28	3.86	278	88
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	86
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	83
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	82
Raynel Espinal R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	24	SP	3.39	14.6%	3.5%	2.0%	.330	3.01	25.6%	18.2%	216	-0.38	2.48	507	82
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	81
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	80
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	80
Joe Wieland R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	25	SP	3.38	16.6%	5.4%	1.8%	.352	4.27	18.6%	11.3%	124	+0.89	3.38	270	79
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.66	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.97	3.69	523	79
Duncan Robinson R 2018 · 3.41 FIP	24	SP	3.41	16.3%	4.4%	2.1%	.324	4.10	10.2%	0.3%	23	+0.69	3.41	279	79
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	78
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	78
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	78
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	78
Brady Rodgers R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SP	3.92	15.5%	5.2%	2.7%	.326	2.99	18.1%	13.6%	189	-0.93	1.98	354	78
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	78
Dustin Crenshaw R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	27	SP	3.24	16.4%	2.7%	2.2%	.280	3.67	13.9%	11.4%	168	+0.43	3.24	238	77
Alex FaGalde R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	24	SP	3.82	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	5.04	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.22	3.82	279	77
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	97	18.7%	4.9%	1.23	4.23
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36