John Holobetz
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+1.7
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 2.0 · 2028
ERA4.09
FIP4.09
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.6%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%13.9%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 23 | 19 | 125 | 499 | 120 | 20 | 10 | 18.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 3.03 | 3.37 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 2 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 104 | 34 | 14 | 20.6% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +1.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 129 | 542 | 116 | 38 | 14 | 21.4% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 3.80 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 119 | 37 | 15 | 21.1% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 4.07 | 4.04 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 127 | 40 | 16 | 21.4% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.04 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 130 | 41 | 17 | 21.4% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 129 | 41 | 17 | 21.4% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.09 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 126 | 41 | 17 | 21.3% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.13 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 121 | 40 | 17 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.19 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 115 | 39 | 17 | 20.8% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 109 | 39 | 16 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 103 | 38 | 16 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 96 | 37 | 16 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 89 | 36 | 15 | 19.5% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 81 | 34 | 15 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 73 | 33 | 14 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.97 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 21 | 134 | 534 | 105 | 27 | 11 | 19.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 2.90 | 3.25 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 31 | 200 | 799 | 157 | 40 | 16 | 19.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 2.90 | 3.25 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Holobetz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.09 | 20.6% | 6.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.05 | 21.3% | 14.6% | 417 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.64 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 5.79 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.15 | 3.18 | 237 | 94 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 93 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 92 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.69 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.01 | 3.68 | 523 | 91 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.65 | 17.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | .312 | 3.74 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 198 | +0.09 | 3.57 | 302 | 89 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 229 | 89 |
| Alex Colomé R 2028 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 89 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 89 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.58 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.81 | 3.35 | 541 | 88 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.86 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .279 | 4.13 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 177 | +0.27 | 3.77 | 420 | 88 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 88 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.90 | 15.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | .326 | 2.99 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 189 | -0.91 | 1.98 | 354 | 88 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 88 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 87 |
| Jason Forjet R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.36 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.48 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.12 | 3.36 | 197 | 87 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 87 |
| Chris Devenski R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .298 | 2.89 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 236 | -1.19 | 2.10 | 608 | 86 |
| Joe Wieland R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.45 | 16.6% | 5.4% | 1.9% | .352 | 4.28 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 124 | +0.83 | 3.45 | 270 | 86 |
| Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | .340 | 4.59 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 40 | +0.30 | 4.29 | 146 | 86 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.02 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.47 | 3.55 | 252 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.0 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.0 | $17M | +$17M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $4M | +1.9 | $18M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.7 | $16M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.5 | $15M | +$7M |
| Totals | $20M | $101M | +$82M | ||