John Holobetz

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#296ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX3 levels	23	19	125	3.03	2.70	24.0%	4.0%	—	K 18.5% · BB 4.6% · FIP 3.34
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	23	119	4.07	3.54	26.3%	7.2%	—	K 21.7% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.26
2027PROJ	25	MLBBOS	1	1	2	4.17	4.17	20.4%	5.4%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBBOS	7	7	43	4.12	4.12	20.8%	5.6%	0.6
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBOS	10	10	59	4.15	4.16	20.9%	5.9%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 8.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 78%

CompsAndy Ferguson (age 26) · Shumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Ryan Watson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.17

FIP4.17

K%20.4%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%15.0%

Proj IP85

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$13M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	18.5%	4.6%	14.0%	2.2%	3.03	3.34	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	18.5%	4.6%	14.0%	2.2%	3.03	3.34	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	24.0%	4.0%	20.0%	2.0%	3.03	2.70	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	119	502	132	36	16	88%	4.6	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	3.7%	4.07	4.26	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	119	502	132	36	16	88%	4.6	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	3.7%	4.07	4.26	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	119	502	132	36	16	88%	4.6	26.3%	7.2%	19.1%	3.2%	4.07	3.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	1	1	2	8	2	0	0	100%	2.0	20.4%	5.4%	15.0%	3.1%	4.17	4.17	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	98	415	86	23	13	100%	6.2	20.8%	5.6%	15.2%	3.1%	4.16	4.16	+1.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	92	391	81	23	12	100%	6.2	20.9%	5.9%	15.0%	3.2%	4.19	4.20	+1.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	87	369	77	22	12	100%	5.8	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	3.3%	4.25	4.29	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	81	344	71	22	12	100%	5.8	20.6%	6.4%	14.2%	3.4%	4.35	4.42	+0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	74	312	63	21	11	100%	6.1	20.2%	6.7%	13.6%	3.6%	4.50	4.59	+0.7
2033	31	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	66	277	55	19	11	100%	6.0	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.8%	4.68	4.80	+0.5
2034	32	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	57	242	47	18	10	100%	5.7	19.4%	7.4%	12.0%	4.1%	4.88	5.02	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	43	182	38	10	6	100%	6.1	20.8%	5.6%	15.2%	3.1%	4.12	4.12	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	59	249	52	15	8	100%	5.9	20.9%	5.9%	15.0%	3.1%	4.15	4.16	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	66	279	58	17	9	100%	6.0	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	3.2%	4.21	4.25	+0.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	66	279	57	18	9	100%	6.0	20.6%	6.4%	14.2%	3.3%	4.30	4.37	+0.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	63	266	54	18	9	100%	6.3	20.2%	6.7%	13.6%	3.5%	4.45	4.54	+0.6
2033	31	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	58	245	49	17	9	100%	5.8	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.7%	4.63	4.75	+0.4
2034	32	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	52	220	43	16	9	100%	5.8	19.4%	7.4%	12.0%	4.0%	4.82	4.96	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	408	1722	351	111	59	100%	6.0	20.4%	6.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.38	4.07	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	172	54	29	100%	6.0	20.4%	6.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.38	4.07	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		49	42	244	1001	201	60	30	86%	5.0	20.1%	6.0%	14.1%	3.0%	3.54	3.80	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	34	200	820	165	49	24	86%	5.0	20.1%	6.0%	14.1%	3.0%	3.54	3.80	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 79 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.42 (+0.91)K% 28.1% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.10%	—	×0.810	22.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.100	8.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.32%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.99%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 40 IPFIP 3.59 → 3.94 (+0.35)K% 22.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.81%	—	×0.860	19.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.43%	—	×0.900	5.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.92%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.22%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 63 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.99 (+0.73)K% 23.7% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.66%	—	×0.770	18.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.82%	—	×1.150	4.39%
HR / BF /BF	3.05%	÷1.117	×1.250	3.42%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 38 IPFIP 2.30 → 2.69 (+0.39)K% 19.6% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.57%	—	×0.810	15.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.62%	—	×1.100	3.99%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷1.119	×1.200	0.78%

Result: FIP 2.30 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 24 IPFIP 1.65 → 2.49 (+0.84)K% 31.3% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.31%	—	×0.740	23.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.05%	—	×1.180	5.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.01%	÷1.214	×1.300	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 1.65 → 2.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Holobetz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.21	20.8%	15.0%	278	+0.04	—	—	—
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	89
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	88
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	87
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	85
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	83
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	83
Jimmy Nelson R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	18.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.332	3.69	21.4%	13.0%	532	+0.36	1.32	720	82
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	81
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	80
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	80
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	80
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	79
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	79
James McDonald R 2010 · 2.99 FIP	25	SP-	2.99	22.2%	7.8%	1.4%	.314	4.36	19.8%	10.2%	372	+1.37	2.99	506	79
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	79
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	79
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	79
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	79
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	79
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	80	20.4%	6.2%	1.32	4.36
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Vidal Nuño ('18)	1.9	75	19.6%	6.6%	1.55	4.06