John Holobetz — OGILVIE

John Holobetz P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91

ERA3.94

FIP3.94

K%17.8%

BB%4.0%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$22M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	18.5%	4.6%	14.0%	2.0%	3.03	3.21	—
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	24.0%	4.0%	20.0%	2.0%	3.03	2.70	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	15	14	72	305	80	24	11	93%	4.8	21.2%	8.7%	12.6%	4.3%	4.75	4.78	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB	BOS	12	12	67	281	50	11	7	100%	5.6	17.8%	4.0%	13.8%	2.7%	3.94	3.94	+0.6
ROS	24	MLB	BOS	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	17.8%	4.0%	13.8%	2.7%	3.95	3.95	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB	BOS	—	—	139	586	130	35	18	—	—	22.2%	6.0%	16.2%	3.1%	4.36	4.38	+1.7
2026 FULL	24	MLB	BOS	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	17.8%	4.0%	13.8%	2.7%	3.95	3.56	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	BOS	15	15	88	373	69	16	10	100%	5.9	18.6%	4.2%	14.4%	2.7%	3.93	3.91	+1.3
2028	26	MLB	BOS	15	15	88	373	71	16	10	100%	5.9	19.0%	4.4%	14.6%	2.7%	3.93	3.91	+1.3
2029	27	MLB	BOS	15	15	87	368	71	17	10	100%	5.8	19.2%	4.7%	14.5%	2.8%	3.96	3.97	+1.2
2030	28	MLB	BOS	14	14	84	357	68	17	10	100%	6.0	19.1%	4.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.02	4.06	+1.0
2031	29	MLB	BOS	13	13	81	341	64	17	10	100%	6.2	18.9%	5.1%	13.8%	3.0%	4.12	4.19	+0.8
2032	30	MLB	BOS	13	13	76	320	66	15	10	100%	5.8	20.5%	4.6%	15.9%	3.2%	4.11	4.10	+0.7
2033	31	MLB	BOS	12	12	71	299	60	15	10	100%	5.9	20.1%	5.0%	15.2%	3.4%	4.22	4.30	+0.4
2034	32	MLB	BOS	11	11	66	277	54	15	10	100%	6.0	19.7%	5.4%	14.3%	3.7%	4.40	4.52	+0.1
2035	33	MLB	BOS	10	10	60	254	49	15	10	100%	6.0	19.2%	5.8%	13.4%	4.0%	4.62	4.77	-0.2
2036	34	MLB	BOS	9	9	55	231	43	15	10	100%	6.1	18.6%	6.3%	12.3%	4.3%	4.88	5.05	-0.3
2027	25	MLB	BOS	7	7	39	165	31	7	4	100%	5.6	18.6%	4.2%	14.4%	2.7%	3.94	3.92	+0.3
2028	26	MLB	BOS	10	10	59	249	47	11	7	100%	5.9	19.0%	4.4%	14.6%	2.7%	3.94	3.92	+0.4
2029	27	MLB	BOS	11	11	68	287	55	13	8	100%	6.2	19.2%	4.7%	14.5%	2.8%	3.97	3.98	+0.6
2030	28	MLB	BOS	12	12	71	300	57	15	9	100%	5.9	19.1%	4.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.03	4.07	+0.6
2031	29	MLB	BOS	12	12	71	300	57	15	9	100%	5.9	18.9%	5.1%	13.8%	3.0%	4.13	4.20	+0.5
2032	30	MLB	BOS	11	11	68	287	59	13	9	100%	6.2	20.5%	4.6%	15.9%	3.2%	4.12	4.11	+0.5
2033	31	MLB	BOS	11	11	65	274	55	14	9	100%	5.9	20.1%	5.0%	15.2%	3.5%	4.23	4.31	+0.3
2034	32	MLB	BOS	10	10	61	258	51	14	10	100%	6.1	19.7%	5.4%	14.3%	3.7%	4.41	4.53	+0.0
2035	33	MLB	BOS	9	9	56	236	45	14	9	100%	6.2	19.2%	5.8%	13.4%	4.0%	4.63	4.78	-0.2
2036	34	MLB	BOS	8	8	49	207	39	13	9	100%	6.1	18.6%	6.3%	12.3%	4.3%	4.89	5.06	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			101	101	607	2564	496	129	84	100%	6.0	19.3%	5.0%	14.3%	3.3%	4.21	3.89	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	163	42	28	100%	6.0	19.3%	5.0%	14.3%	3.3%	4.21	3.89	+3.5
Career	—			38	33	197	804	157	49	23	87%	5.2	19.6%	6.1%	13.4%	2.9%	3.66	3.81	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—			39	34	200	818	160	50	24	87%	5.2	19.6%	6.1%	13.4%	2.9%	3.66	3.81	+3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Holobetz (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	17.8%	4.0%	2.7%	—	3.93	18.9%	14.5%	264	-0.01	—	—	—
Nick Fraze R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	17.3%	3.5%	3.1%	.261	5.18	17.3%	6.4%	157	+1.37	3.81	278	86
Ryan Watson R 2027 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP-	4.26	18.6%	4.9%	3.9%	.342	5.85	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.59	4.26	165	84
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	24	SP	3.46	17.6%	5.5%	2.1%	.290	5.81	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.35	3.18	237	84
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	21.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.336	6.45	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.76	3.69	124	83
Luc Rennie R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	24	SP	3.48	18.7%	5.5%	2.3%	.352	5.49	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.01	3.48	265	82
Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	24	SP	3.39	14.6%	3.5%	2.0%	.330	2.97	25.6%	18.2%	216	-0.42	2.53	507	82
Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.63	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.84	3.79	606	82
Joe Wieland R 2027 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	16.6%	5.4%	2.2%	.352	4.50	18.6%	11.3%	124	+0.94	3.56	270	82
Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.85	18.2%	11.3%	332	+1.18	3.67	523	81
Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP	3.81	19.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.321	5.05	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.24	3.81	171	81
Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	22.3%	5.7%	3.0%	.262	3.13	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.44	3.13	137	81
Duncan Robinson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	24	SP	3.48	16.3%	4.4%	2.2%	.324	4.08	10.2%	0.3%	23	+0.60	3.48	279	80
Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	18.2%	6.2%	2.7%	.290	4.23	21.6%	12.3%	25	+0.39	3.84	254	80
Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	24	SP	3.77	16.3%	6.0%	2.3%	.279	4.10	18.9%	8.5%	216	+0.33	3.74	459	80
Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	15.5%	5.2%	2.5%	.326	2.99	18.1%	13.6%	189	-0.85	1.98	354	80
Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	24	SP	3.95	19.1%	6.7%	2.9%	.266	5.04	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.09	3.95	279	79
Mason Erla R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	24	SP	3.95	14.9%	6.0%	2.5%	.309	4.99	14.9%	4.6%	124	+1.04	3.12	206	79
Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	21.1%	7.1%	2.9%	.244	3.56	23.9%	18.1%	56	-0.23	3.56	167	79
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	17.0%	6.5%	3.4%	.293	4.16	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.22	3.50	472	78
Connor Noland R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	24	SP	3.78	14.8%	5.7%	2.2%	.290	4.26	16.6%	8.0%	315	+0.48	3.78	423	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11	77	19.1%	4.8%	1.21	4.15
Erasmo Ramírez ('24)	8	78	18.1%	5.8%	1.40	4.33
Ross Stripling ('24)	9	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94
Tyler Duffey ('22)	8	59	23.0%	6.8%	1.25	4.57
Yusmeiro Petit ('21)	7	72	20.4%	4.6%	1.27	3.28
Matt Andriese ('21)	7	73	21.7%	6.7%	1.34	4.63