Brian Curley — OGILVIE

Brian Curley P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 212 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.6 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%21.9%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—50

CMD3045

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$10M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	23	116	514	130	34	22	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	23	116	514	130	34	22	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	ARI	15	13	70	305	90	17	9	87%	4.6	29.5%	5.6%	23.9%	3.0%	4.52	2.93	—
2026	23	AA RAW	ARI	10	10	46	209	40	17	13	100%	4.6	19.1%	8.1%	11.0%	6.2%	6.41	5.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	116	491	111	40	16	100%	5.5	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	3.2%	4.38	4.34	+0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	118	498	114	40	16	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.0%	14.9%	3.1%	4.32	4.28	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	118	498	115	40	16	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.0%	15.1%	3.1%	4.28	4.26	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	116	490	113	39	16	100%	6.1	23.0%	8.0%	15.0%	3.2%	4.29	4.29	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	113	475	109	39	16	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	3.3%	4.34	4.38	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	108	454	103	38	16	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.4%	14.3%	3.4%	4.44	4.51	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	101	426	95	37	15	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.7%	13.6%	3.6%	4.59	4.69	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	94	398	87	36	15	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	3.8%	4.77	4.89	+0.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	87	368	79	35	15	100%	5.8	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	4.1%	4.98	5.11	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	50	211	48	17	6	100%	5.6	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.24	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	78	329	75	26	10	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.0%	14.9%	3.0%	4.23	4.19	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	93	393	91	31	12	100%	5.8	23.1%	8.0%	15.1%	3.0%	4.19	4.17	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	99	418	96	34	13	100%	6.2	23.0%	8.0%	15.0%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	100	422	97	34	13	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	3.1%	4.24	4.28	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	98	414	94	35	13	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.4%	14.3%	3.2%	4.34	4.41	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	93	393	88	34	13	100%	5.8	22.3%	8.7%	13.6%	3.4%	4.48	4.58	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	88	372	81	34	14	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	3.6%	4.65	4.77	+0.0
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	82	346	74	33	13	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	3.9%	4.86	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		131	131	781	3298	744	278	107	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.2%	4.38	4.04	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	71	27	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.2%	4.38	4.04	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		25	23	116	514	102	38	27	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	886	175	66	46	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Curley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.9%	8.5%	3.2%	—	4.29	22.8%	14.8%	352	-0.17	—	—	—
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	83
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	82
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	80
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	78
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	78
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	78
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	77
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77
Gabriel Hughes R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	22.2%	10.0%	4.8%	.302	3.83	18.2%	10.6%	201	-1.29	3.10	267	77
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	77
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	76
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	76
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	76
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	75
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	99	22.6%	8.4%	1.31	4.47
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73