Brian Curley

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 212 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#588ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	23	116	5.28	4.20	25.3%	6.6%	—	K 19.8% · BB 7.4% · FIP 5.24
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	1	1	1	4.93	4.93	20.2%	8.0%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	8	8	49	4.69	4.66	21.2%	7.8%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBARI	12	12	71	4.61	4.58	21.7%	7.8%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$1M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 5.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 80%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Will Warren (age 24) · Brian Edgington (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%20.2%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	514	130	34	22	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	514	130	34	22	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	116	514	130	34	22	92%	4.6	25.3%	6.6%	18.7%	4.3%	5.28	4.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	3.9%	4.93	4.93	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	114	483	102	38	18	100%	5.7	21.2%	7.8%	13.3%	3.8%	4.80	4.77	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	107	453	98	35	17	100%	6.0	21.7%	7.8%	13.9%	3.7%	4.72	4.69	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	103	433	94	34	16	100%	6.0	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	3.7%	4.70	4.70	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	97	411	89	33	16	100%	6.1	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.8%	4.74	4.78	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	90	382	81	31	15	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	4.0%	4.84	4.91	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	82	346	73	30	14	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.5%	12.4%	4.2%	4.99	5.09	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	49	207	44	16	7	100%	6.1	21.2%	7.8%	13.3%	3.6%	4.69	4.66	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	71	300	65	23	11	100%	5.9	21.7%	7.8%	13.9%	3.5%	4.61	4.58	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	79	334	72	26	12	100%	6.1	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	3.5%	4.59	4.59	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	82	346	75	28	13	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.6%	4.62	4.66	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	79	334	71	27	13	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	3.8%	4.72	4.79	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	74	312	66	27	12	100%	6.2	21.0%	8.5%	12.4%	4.0%	4.86	4.96	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	435	1835	393	148	67	100%	6.0	21.4%	8.1%	13.4%	3.7%	4.68	4.33	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	68	31	100%	6.0	21.4%	8.1%	13.4%	3.7%	4.68	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		25	23	116	514	102	38	27	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	886	175	66	46	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 70 IPFIP 2.93 → 4.02 (+1.08)K% 29.5% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.51%	—	×0.770	22.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.57%	—	×1.150	6.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.95%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.69%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 46 IPFIP 5.93 → 7.02 (+1.09)K% 19.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.14%	—	×0.810	15.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.13%	—	×1.100	8.95%
HR / BF /BF	6.22%	÷1.000	×1.200	7.46%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.93 → 7.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Curley (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.9%	—	4.72	21.5%	13.7%	324	-0.21	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	88
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	87
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	86
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	85
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	85
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	84
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	84
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	84
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	84
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	24	SP-	4.43	21.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.80	20.9%	14.6%	156	-0.63	2.39	500	84
Tanner Gordon R 2022 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	20.8%	8.0%	4.3%	.330	4.56	17.3%	12.0%	363	-0.16	4.10	715	84
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	84
Justin Vernia R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	23	SP-	5.27	17.0%	8.4%	4.6%	.296	4.46	14.7%	10.2%	79	-0.81	4.37	193	83
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	83
Jeff Bain R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	23	SP	5.11	21.7%	8.7%	5.0%	.303	4.63	19.9%	11.9%	124	-0.48	3.35	475	83
Osmer Morales R 2017 · 5.22 FIP	24	SP	5.22	18.9%	10.1%	4.4%	.294	5.33	16.9%	4.5%	102	+0.11	3.14	429	83
Taylor Buchholz R 2006 · 4.94 FIP	24	SP	4.94	16.1%	6.3%	4.4%	.245	3.30	17.8%	13.0%	160	-1.64	3.12	299	83
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	82
Ian Bedell R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	24	SP	5.08	19.8%	8.8%	4.6%	.232	6.29	17.3%	6.0%	70	+1.21	3.73	274	82
Jonathan Heasley R 2021 · 5.25 FIP	24	SP	5.25	21.0%	8.2%	5.2%	.289	5.37	17.5%	8.9%	284	+0.12	3.72	607	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	104	21.2%	8.0%	1.50	4.82
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.1	138	21.3%	7.8%	1.48	4.52
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*