Dayne Pengelly
P
Dunedin Blue Jays
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.2%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP10
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 4 | 4 | 11 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 2.8 | 30.6% | 10.2% | 20.4% | 2.0% | 3.18 | 2.93 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 4 | 4 | 11 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 2.8 | 30.6% | 10.2% | 20.4% | 2.0% | 3.18 | 2.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 4 | 4 | 14 | 55 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 3.4 | 10.8% | 19.3% | -8.5% | 0.0% | 1.98 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 2 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 23 | 96 | 17 | 13 | 1 | — | — | 18.2% | 13.4% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 2.95 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.84 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 70 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 8 | 8 | 25 | 104 | 21 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 5.1% | 1.0% | 2.52 | 3.83 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 64 | 200 | 832 | 167 | 125 | 8 | 100% | 3.1 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 5.1% | 1.0% | 2.52 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dayne Pengelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.23 | 23.8% | 14.9% | 20 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Brendan Beck R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 85 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 81 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 79 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 78 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 77 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 77 |
| Michael Grove R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.46 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .409 | 5.62 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 176 | +1.16 | 3.54 | 377 | 76 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.11 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .264 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 245 | -1.01 | 3.90 | 264 | 76 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 75 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 75 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 74 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 73 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 194 | 73 |
| Hunter Harvey R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 17.6% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .344 | 5.66 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 86 | +1.86 | 2.00 | 269 | 73 |
| Octavio Acosta R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.37 | 15.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | .337 | 4.27 | 16.3% | 4.8% | 184 | -0.10 | 3.80 | 333 | 73 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 72 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 72 |
| Dane Acker R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.44 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.44 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 215 | -1.00 | 4.23 | 257 | 71 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.31 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .281 | 7.92 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.61 | 3.31 | 191 | 71 |
| J.T. Ginn R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.66 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 3.8% | .337 | 4.32 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 271 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 501 | 70 |