Liam Doyle

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #27MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP55ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	2	2	4	2.45	5.01	40.0%	13.3%	—	K 40.0% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.07
2026	22	AASTL	23	23	103	3.76	3.41	30.0%	12.5%	—	K 24.3% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	18	18	95	4.61	4.61	25.9%	13.6%	0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBSTL	10	10	54	4.36	4.28	26.0%	12.0%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBSTL	16	16	96	4.23	4.15	26.1%	11.1%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control49Command47FB velo71

Career WAR1 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 19, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 70%

CompsAnthony Veneziano (age 23) · Sam Weatherly (age 22) · Samy Natera Jr. (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%25.9%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5050

CTRL4550

CMD4050

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$3M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$20M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.07	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.07	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.01	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	23	23	103	433	130	54	10	100%	4.5	24.3%	13.7%	10.6%	2.8%	3.76	4.31	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	23	23	103	433	130	54	10	100%	4.5	24.3%	13.7%	10.6%	2.8%	3.76	4.31	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	23	23	103	433	130	54	10	100%	4.5	30.0%	12.5%	17.6%	2.3%	3.76	3.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	18	18	95	401	104	54	12	100%	5.3	25.9%	13.6%	12.3%	2.9%	4.61	4.61	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	123	521	136	63	15	100%	5.6	26.0%	12.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.39	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	143	603	158	67	17	100%	6.0	26.1%	11.1%	15.1%	2.9%	4.34	4.26	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	155	654	171	71	19	100%	6.0	26.1%	10.8%	15.3%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	153	644	168	70	19	100%	6.1	26.0%	10.8%	15.2%	2.9%	4.28	4.27	+1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	148	625	162	69	19	100%	5.9	25.9%	11.0%	14.9%	3.0%	4.33	4.36	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	141	597	153	67	19	100%	5.9	25.6%	11.2%	14.4%	3.2%	4.43	4.49	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	133	561	142	65	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	11.5%	13.8%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	124	523	130	62	19	100%	5.9	24.9%	11.9%	13.0%	3.6%	4.75	4.87	+0.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	114	483	118	59	19	100%	6.0	24.4%	12.3%	12.2%	3.9%	4.96	5.09	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	54	228	59	27	6	100%	5.4	26.0%	12.0%	14.0%	2.7%	4.36	4.28	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	96	405	106	45	11	100%	6.0	26.1%	11.1%	15.1%	2.7%	4.23	4.15	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	123	519	136	56	14	100%	6.2	26.1%	10.8%	15.3%	2.7%	4.17	4.13	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	130	549	143	59	15	100%	5.9	26.0%	10.8%	15.2%	2.7%	4.17	4.16	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	132	557	144	61	16	100%	6.0	25.9%	11.0%	14.9%	2.8%	4.21	4.24	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	129	545	140	61	16	100%	5.9	25.6%	11.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.31	4.37	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	122	515	130	59	16	100%	6.1	25.3%	11.5%	13.8%	3.2%	4.44	4.54	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	115	486	121	58	16	100%	6.1	24.9%	11.9%	13.0%	3.4%	4.61	4.73	+0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	107	452	110	55	16	100%	5.9	24.4%	12.3%	12.2%	3.6%	4.81	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	169	1009	4259	1090	483	127	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.2%	3.0%	4.36	4.01	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	216	96	25	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.2%	3.0%	4.36	4.01	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		25	25	107	448	111	61	13	100%	4.3	24.8%	13.7%	11.1%	2.9%	3.71	4.33	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	840	209	115	24	100%	4.3	24.8%	13.7%	11.1%	2.9%	3.71	4.33	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liam Doyle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	25.9%	13.6%	2.9%	—	4.29	26.1%	14.8%	421	-0.32	—	—	—
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	88
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	88
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	86
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	86
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	85
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	82
Cade Povich L 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	25.7%	12.1%	3.4%	.298	4.32	22.0%	13.7%	386	-0.00	3.80	626	80
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	79
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	79
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	79
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	79
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	79
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	78
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	78
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	77
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	76
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	76
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	76
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	76
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	3.99	17.6%	7.2%	171	+0.40	3.59	280	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.6	133	25.7%	11.5%	1.22	4.48
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Frank Lange ('10-'13, 4 WAR*)	2.5	125	26.5%*	11.1%*	1.30*	4.20*
Hideo Nomo ('08)	9.9	180	22.7%	10.7%	1.14	4.24
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Ubaldo Jiménez ('17)	9.3	170	21.3%	10.5%	0.90	4.34