Alexander Garcia

Alexander Garcia P DSL CLE Goryl

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 161 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%20.6%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD2040

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	2	21	97	30	10	1	18%	1.9	21.0%	12.9%	8.1%	1.4%	4.64	3.75	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	2	21	97	30	10	1	18%	1.9	21.0%	12.9%	8.1%	1.4%	4.64	3.75	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	2	21	97	30	10	1	18%	1.9	30.9%	10.3%	20.6%	1.0%	4.64	2.30	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	48	186	48	18	0	100%	4.3	17.5%	12.1%	5.5%	0.0%	1.32	3.15	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	48	186	48	18	0	100%	4.3	17.5%	12.1%	5.5%	0.0%	1.32	3.15	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	48	186	48	18	0	100%	4.3	25.8%	9.7%	16.1%	0.0%	1.32	2.22	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	PIT	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	20.6%	12.7%	7.8%	2.8%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	45	190	40	22	5	100%	5.0	21.3%	11.8%	9.5%	2.8%	4.76	4.70	+0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	47	199	45	22	5	100%	5.2	22.3%	10.9%	11.5%	2.7%	4.58	4.48	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	49	207	48	21	6	100%	5.4	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.7%	4.42	4.33	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	50	212	50	21	6	100%	5.6	23.7%	10.0%	13.6%	2.7%	4.30	4.23	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	51	214	52	21	6	100%	5.6	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	2.7%	4.22	4.17	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	51	214	52	21	6	100%	6.3	24.3%	9.9%	14.4%	2.7%	4.18	4.15	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	50	211	51	21	6	100%	6.2	24.2%	9.9%	14.3%	2.7%	4.18	4.19	+0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	PIT	4	4	22	93	20	11	2	100%	5.5	21.3%	11.8%	9.5%	2.6%	4.65	4.59	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	34	144	32	16	4	100%	4.9	22.3%	10.9%	11.5%	2.5%	4.47	4.37	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	41	173	40	18	4	100%	5.1	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.5%	4.31	4.22	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	45	190	45	19	5	100%	5.6	23.7%	10.0%	13.6%	2.5%	4.19	4.12	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	47	198	48	20	5	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	2.5%	4.11	4.06	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	47	198	48	20	5	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.9%	14.4%	2.5%	4.07	4.04	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	48	203	49	20	5	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.9%	14.3%	2.5%	4.07	4.08	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	284	1199	282	123	30	100%	5.6	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	2.5%	4.22	3.79	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	199	87	21	100%	5.6	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	2.5%	4.22	3.79	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		22	13	69	283	53	35	1	59%	3.1	18.7%	12.4%	6.4%	0.5%	2.35	3.36	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	38	200	820	154	101	4	59%	3.1	18.7%	12.4%	6.4%	0.5%	2.35	3.36	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	20.6%	12.7%	2.8%	—	4.50	22.3%	11.3%	141	-0.41	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	88
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	85
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	85
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	85
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	84
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	84
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	82
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	82
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	81
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	81
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	80
Wuilliams Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP-	4.21	17.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.363	5.79	21.2%	5.9%	70	+1.58	3.69	135	80
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	80
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	80
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	80
Eric Prado R 2023 · 4.15 FIP	17	SP-	4.15	16.6%	11.5%	1.8%	.222	7.05	14.8%	-0.5%	90	+2.90	4.15	131	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	46	23.1%	10.5%	1.05	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93