Alexander Garcia
P
DSL CLE Goryl
Age 20
RHP
6'0" / 161 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%20.6%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%8.8%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Mendoza | 11 | 2 | 21 | 97 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 18% | 1.9 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 4.64 | 3.75 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Mendoza | 11 | 2 | 21 | 97 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 18% | 1.9 | 30.9% | 10.3% | 20.6% | 1.0% | 4.64 | 2.30 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL CLE Goryl | 11 | 11 | 48 | 186 | 48 | 18 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.5% | 12.1% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 1.32 | 3.15 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL CLE Goryl | 11 | 11 | 48 | 186 | 48 | 18 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 25.8% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 1.32 | 2.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | PIT | 5 | 5 | 27 | 113 | 23 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | PIT | 6 | 6 | 28 | 119 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | PIT | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.24 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 87 | 29 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 22 | 13 | 69 | 283 | 53 | 35 | 1 | 59% | 3.1 | 18.7% | 12.4% | 6.4% | 0.5% | 2.35 | 3.36 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 38 | 200 | 820 | 154 | 101 | 4 | 59% | 3.1 | 18.7% | 12.4% | 6.4% | 0.5% | 2.35 | 3.36 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alexander Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.62 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 28 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 86 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 86 |
| Luis Cohen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.14 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .263 | 4.99 | 13.7% | 3.4% | 225 | +0.85 | 3.00 | 310 | 84 |
| Ulices Campos R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.60 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 5.16 | 12.0% | 1.0% | 65 | +0.56 | 4.13 | 153 | 84 |
| Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 84 |
| Reibyn Corona R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.61 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.67 | 4.38 | 190 | 84 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2029 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 83 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 83 |
| Joshua Quezada R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.4% | .293 | 4.27 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 73 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 153 | 83 |
| Bryan Polanco R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .248 | 5.50 | 13.0% | 1.2% | 243 | +0.17 | 5.24 | 347 | 82 |
| Henry Valencio R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .293 | 5.11 | 11.9% | -11.9% | 14 | +0.96 | 3.48 | 136 | 82 |
| Jonawel Valdez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.20 | 17.5% | 13.8% | 1.5% | .309 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 1.1% | 70 | +0.42 | 4.04 | 131 | 82 |
| Kamdyn Perry R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.18 | 18.6% | 12.8% | 3.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.18 | 123 | 81 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 81 |
| Porter Hodge R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.18 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.78 | 2.98 | 349 | 81 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2029 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 81 |
| Jharold Clemente R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.08 | 17.5% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .258 | 5.35 | 13.3% | 4.3% | 92 | +0.27 | 3.91 | 116 | 81 |
| Nicholas Economos R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.95 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .233 | 5.28 | 10.4% | 0.6% | 57 | +0.33 | 4.58 | 223 | 80 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.46 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .312 | 3.70 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 111 | -0.76 | 3.25 | 266 | 80 |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.82 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.47 | 2.50 | 103 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 1.09 | 4.73 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |