Alexander Garcia

P DSL CLE Goryl

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 161 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1489ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL CLE Mendo…	11	2	21	4.64	2.30	30.9%	10.3%	—	K 21.0% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.75
2025	19	ROKDSL CLE Goryl	11	11	48	1.32	2.22	25.8%	9.7%	—	K 17.5% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.15
2027PROJ	21	MLBPIT	—	—	0	4.84	4.84	21.4%	12.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBPIT	4	4	20	4.55	4.46	22.5%	11.3%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBPIT	6	6	30	4.39	4.29	23.3%	10.6%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

CompsKobe Robinson (age 21) · Jake Lyons (age 22) · Ray Gaither (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%21.4%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	2	21	97	30	10	1	18%	1.9	21.0%	12.9%	8.1%	1.4%	4.64	3.75	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	2	21	97	30	10	1	18%	1.9	21.0%	12.9%	8.1%	1.4%	4.64	3.75	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	2	21	97	30	10	1	18%	1.9	30.9%	10.3%	20.6%	1.0%	4.64	2.30	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	48	186	48	18	0	100%	4.3	17.5%	12.1%	5.5%	0.0%	1.32	3.15	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	48	186	48	18	0	100%	4.3	17.5%	12.1%	5.5%	0.0%	1.32	3.15	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	48	186	48	18	0	100%	4.3	25.8%	9.7%	16.1%	0.0%	1.32	2.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	2.9%	4.84	4.84	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	41	173	39	20	5	100%	5.1	22.5%	11.3%	11.2%	2.9%	4.67	4.58	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	41	173	40	18	5	100%	5.1	23.3%	10.6%	12.7%	2.8%	4.51	4.41	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	PIT	7	7	41	173	41	18	5	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.2%	13.6%	2.8%	4.38	4.30	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	PIT	7	7	39	165	40	17	5	100%	5.6	24.2%	10.1%	14.2%	2.8%	4.30	4.24	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	PIT	7	7	39	166	41	17	5	100%	5.6	24.4%	10.0%	14.4%	2.8%	4.25	4.22	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	PIT	6	6	38	162	40	16	5	100%	6.4	24.4%	10.1%	14.3%	2.8%	4.26	4.26	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	4	4	20	84	19	10	2	100%	5.0	22.5%	11.3%	11.2%	2.6%	4.55	4.46	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	30	127	30	13	3	100%	5.0	23.3%	10.6%	12.7%	2.6%	4.39	4.29	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	34	144	34	15	4	100%	5.7	23.9%	10.2%	13.6%	2.6%	4.26	4.18	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	34	144	35	14	4	100%	5.7	24.2%	10.1%	14.2%	2.6%	4.18	4.12	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	36	152	37	15	4	100%	6.0	24.4%	10.0%	14.4%	2.6%	4.13	4.10	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	36	152	37	15	4	100%	6.0	24.4%	10.1%	14.3%	2.6%	4.14	4.14	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	33	190	801	192	83	21	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	2.6%	4.25	3.82	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	202	87	22	100%	5.7	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	2.6%	4.25	3.82	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		22	13	69	283	53	35	1	59%	3.1	18.7%	12.4%	6.4%	0.5%	2.35	3.36	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	38	200	820	154	101	4	59%	3.1	18.7%	12.4%	6.4%	0.5%	2.35	3.36	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKDSL CLE Goryl · 48 IPFIP 2.15 → 3.15 (+1.00)K% 25.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.680	17.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.250	12.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.316	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 163).

Result: FIP 2.15 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL CLE Mendoza · 21 IPFIP 2.36 → 3.75 (+1.39)K% 30.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.93%	—	×0.680	21.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×1.250	12.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.44%

Result: FIP 2.36 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.43	23.2%	12.5%	123	-0.41	—	—	—
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	86
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	83
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	82
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	81
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	81
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	81
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	81
Eiberson Castellano R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.67	386	81
Robert Colina R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	20.5%	10.8%	2.5%	.366	3.37	22.3%	15.2%	61	-0.72	3.25	266	81
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	80
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	80
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	39	23.5%	10.7%	1.10	4.46
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*