Miguel Balza
P
DSL Astros Orange
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.3%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP13
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 7 | 5 | 21 | 84 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 71% | 3.0 | 21.9% | 14.9% | 7.0% | 0.8% | 4.64 | 3.60 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 7 | 5 | 21 | 84 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 71% | 3.0 | 32.1% | 11.9% | 20.2% | 1.2% | 4.64 | 2.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 2 | 2 | 13 | 54 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 3.81 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 10 | 5 | 25 | 100 | 21 | 14 | 1 | 50% | 2.5 | 21.4% | 14.5% | 6.9% | 0.7% | 4.68 | 3.52 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 40 | 200 | 800 | 171 | 116 | 6 | 50% | 2.5 | 21.4% | 14.5% | 6.9% | 0.7% | 4.68 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Balza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.19 | 24.1% | 15.0% | 20 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 87 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 83 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 82 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 82 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 77 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 77 |
| Yon Castro R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.21 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .297 | 4.53 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 167 | +1.32 | 3.21 | 274 | 77 |
| Cole Stapler R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 77 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 77 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 76 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 76 |
| Rico Garcia R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 76 |
| Jorge Juan R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.32 | 28.0% | 10.1% | 2.4% | .310 | 4.96 | 23.0% | 4.7% | 103 | +1.64 | 3.32 | 238 | 76 |
| Juan Mendez R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 75 |
| Chris Campos R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 75 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2029 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 75 |
| Clay Chandler R 2027 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.97 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | .319 | 5.05 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 293 | +0.08 | 4.82 | 328 | 74 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 74 |
| Franco Aleman R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .391 | 3.00 | 29.2% | 18.4% | 114 | -0.93 | 0.86 | 198 | 73 |