Ramiro Villanueva

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1515ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKMIN	3	2	3	15.00	1.77	13.3%	0.0%	—	K 13.3% · BB 0.0% · FIP 1.97
2026	20	AMIN	17	15	52	4.85	4.39	19.5%	13.3%	—	K 14.4% · BB 15.7% · FIP 5.35
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIN	—	—	0	5.48	5.48	17.5%	14.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIN	4	4	20	5.17	5.04	19.5%	12.7%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIN	5	5	29	4.90	4.76	20.7%	11.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%

CompsRyan Harvey (age 22) · Luis Hernandez (age 21) · Juan Nuñez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%17.5%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%2.9%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	3	2	3	15	2	0	0	67%	1.0	13.3%	0.0%	13.3%	0.0%	15.00	1.97	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	3	2	3	15	2	0	0	67%	1.0	13.3%	0.0%	13.3%	0.0%	15.00	1.97	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	3	2	3	15	2	0	0	67%	1.0	13.3%	0.0%	13.3%	0.0%	15.00	1.77	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	17	15	52	241	47	32	5	88%	3.1	14.4%	15.7%	-1.2%	2.7%	4.85	5.35	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	17	15	52	241	47	32	5	88%	3.1	14.4%	15.7%	-1.2%	2.7%	4.85	5.35	—
2026	20	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	17	15	52	241	47	32	5	88%	3.1	19.5%	13.3%	6.2%	2.1%	4.85	4.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.5%	14.6%	2.9%	3.0%	5.48	5.48	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIN	7	7	40	168	33	21	5	100%	5.7	19.5%	12.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.16	5.03	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIN	7	7	40	168	35	19	5	100%	5.7	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.89	4.75	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIN	7	7	40	168	36	18	5	100%	5.7	21.4%	10.6%	10.9%	2.8%	4.69	4.57	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIN	6	6	38	160	35	16	5	100%	6.3	21.9%	10.0%	11.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.46	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIN	6	6	38	162	36	16	5	100%	6.4	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	2.8%	4.48	4.44	+0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIN	6	6	37	157	35	16	5	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	20	84	16	11	2	100%	5.0	19.5%	12.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.17	5.04	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	29	122	25	14	4	100%	5.8	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.90	4.76	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	33	139	30	15	4	100%	5.5	21.4%	10.6%	10.9%	2.9%	4.70	4.58	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	34	144	31	14	4	100%	5.7	21.9%	10.0%	11.8%	2.8%	4.56	4.47	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	35	148	33	15	4	100%	5.8	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	2.8%	4.49	4.45	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	35	148	33	15	4	100%	5.8	22.1%	10.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.49	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	33	185	781	167	83	22	100%	5.6	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.21	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	181	90	24	100%	5.7	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.21	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		20	17	55	256	37	38	6	85%	2.8	14.4%	14.8%	-0.4%	2.5%	5.40	5.15	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	62	200	931	134	137	24	85%	2.8	14.4%	14.8%	-0.4%	2.5%	5.40	5.15	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 52 IPFIP 4.27 → 5.35 (+1.07)K% 19.5% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.50%	—	×0.740	14.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.28%	—	×1.180	15.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.27 → 5.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ramiro Villanueva (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	17.5%	14.6%	3.0%	—	4.78	20.6%	9.0%	120	-0.70	—	—	—
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	88
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	87
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	85
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	85
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	84
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	84
Victor Mederos R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	15.6%	14.0%	2.1%	.286	5.19	16.4%	5.7%	301	+0.50	3.73	394	83
Adam Bates R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP-	5.12	16.2%	14.1%	2.9%	.358	6.39	13.0%	-7.2%	146	+1.27	5.12	183	83
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	82
Elvis Luciano R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	17.5%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	204	82
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	82
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	81
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	81
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	81
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	80
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	80
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	80
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	80
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	80
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	39	20.8%	11.3%	1.11	4.82
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71