Ramiro Villanueva

Ramiro Villanueva P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%21.2%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	3	2	3	15	2	0	0	67%	1.0	13.3%	0.0%	13.3%	0.0%	15.00	1.97	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	3	2	3	15	2	0	0	67%	1.0	13.3%	0.0%	13.3%	0.0%	15.00	1.97	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	3	2	3	15	2	0	0	67%	1.0	13.3%	0.0%	13.3%	0.0%	15.00	1.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	17	15	52	241	47	32	5	88%	3.1	14.4%	15.7%	-1.2%	2.7%	4.85	5.35	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	17	15	52	241	47	32	5	88%	3.1	14.4%	15.7%	-1.2%	2.7%	4.85	5.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	MIN	17	15	52	241	47	32	5	88%	3.1	19.5%	13.3%	6.2%	2.1%	4.85	4.27	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	53	225	49	25	7	100%	5.3	21.8%	11.1%	10.8%	2.9%	4.71	4.65	+0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	56	237	54	24	7	100%	5.6	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.52	4.41	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	58	246	58	23	7	100%	5.3	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	2.8%	4.35	4.24	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	60	252	61	23	7	100%	5.4	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	2.8%	4.22	4.13	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	60	255	63	22	7	100%	6.0	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	2.8%	4.13	4.06	+0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	60	255	63	22	7	100%	6.0	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	2.8%	4.08	4.04	+0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	60	251	62	22	7	100%	6.0	24.7%	8.9%	15.8%	2.8%	4.08	4.08	+0.6
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	26	110	24	12	3	100%	5.2	21.8%	11.1%	10.8%	2.9%	4.72	4.66	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	41	173	40	17	5	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.53	4.42	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	49	207	49	20	6	100%	5.4	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.36	4.25	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	53	224	54	20	6	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	2.8%	4.23	4.14	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	55	232	57	20	7	100%	6.1	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	2.8%	4.14	4.07	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	56	236	58	21	7	100%	6.2	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	2.8%	4.09	4.05	+0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	57	241	59	21	7	100%	5.7	24.7%	8.9%	15.8%	2.9%	4.09	4.09	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	338	1426	342	132	41	100%	5.6	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	2.9%	4.26	3.81	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	203	78	24	100%	5.6	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	2.9%	4.26	3.81	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		20	17	55	256	37	38	6	85%	2.8	14.4%	14.8%	-0.4%	2.5%	5.40	5.15	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	62	200	931	134	137	24	85%	2.8	14.4%	14.8%	-0.4%	2.5%	5.40	5.15	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ramiro Villanueva (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	21.2%	12.2%	3.0%	—	4.43	22.8%	12.6%	168	-0.44	—	—	—
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	88
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	86
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	86
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	85
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	84
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	83
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	82
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	82
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	82
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.82	20.3%	9.4%	253	+0.83	3.99	380	81
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	81
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	81
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	79
Aidan Curry R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	21.7%	13.5%	3.5%	.384	4.73	21.5%	9.5%	260	-0.18	3.34	410	79
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	79
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	56	23.6%	9.6%	1.11	4.34
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93