Jake McCutcheon

RF Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 195 lbs A HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	22	A+/AMIA	333	.201/.332/.325	7	10	43	—	.160/.260/.251
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBMIA	443	.199/.281/.306	8	8	68	-0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBMIA	75	.196/.279/.302	1	1	71	-0.2
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBMIA	139	.199/.281/.308	3	2	73	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed97

Z-Con%51

Whiff%41

K%30

Chase%21

ISO5

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJacob Wetzel (age 23) · Darrien Miller (age 23) · Christopher Familia (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .279 / .303

PA210

HR4

K%28

BB%9

ISO107

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT29

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	71	67	10	1	1	0	3	20	1	5	1	149	197	194	391	45	213	28	4	183	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	262	207	45	8	1	7	45	67	5	5	2	217	370	367	737	150	275	26	17	335	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	71	68	9	1	1	0	2	25	1	5	1	132	169	176	345	44	199	35	3	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	262	221	37	6	1	5	31	91	5	5	2	167	284	271	556	104	235	35	12	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	333	289	46	7	2	5	33	117	6	10	3	159	259	249	508	90	238	35	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	333	274	55	9	2	7	48	87	6	10	3	201	332	325	657	124	259	26	14	303	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	333	291	46	7	2	5	33	117	6	10	3	158	259	247	507	89	227	35	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	333	291	46	7	2	5	33	117	6	10	3	158	259	247	507	89	227	35	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	443	395	79	14	3	8	40	124	5	8	2	199	281	306	587	107	266	28	9	268	68	-17	+1	+0	-5	+10	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	30%	251	223	45	8	1	5	23	70	3	5	1	203	285	315	600	113	269	28	9	273	71	-9	+1	+0	-3	+5	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	44%	314	279	57	10	2	6	28	86	4	6	1	205	287	322	609	117	270	27	9	277	73	-10	+1	+0	-3	+7	-0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	51%	355	316	65	12	2	7	32	96	4	6	2	207	289	326	615	119	271	27	9	279	75	-11	+0	+0	-4	+8	-0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	371	330	70	13	2	8	34	100	4	6	2	208	289	328	617	120	271	27	9	280	76	-11	+0	+0	-4	+8	-0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	376	335	70	13	2	8	34	102	4	5	2	208	289	327	616	119	271	27	9	279	75	-11	+0	-1	-4	+8	-0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	371	331	68	12	2	7	33	101	4	4	1	206	286	321	607	115	270	27	9	276	73	-12	+0	-1	-4	+8	-0.9
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	30%	75	67	12	2	0	1	7	21	1	1	0	196	279	302	580	105	260	28	9	265	71	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	44%	139	123	25	4	1	3	13	38	2	2	1	199	281	308	589	109	261	27	9	269	73	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	51%	180	160	32	6	1	3	16	49	2	3	1	201	282	312	595	112	262	27	9	271	75	-5	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	194	172	35	6	1	4	18	52	2	3	1	201	283	314	596	112	262	27	9	272	76	-6	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	200	178	36	6	1	4	18	54	2	3	1	201	282	313	595	111	262	27	9	271	75	-6	+0	-0	-2	+4	-0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	195	174	35	6	1	4	17	53	2	2	1	199	280	307	587	108	261	27	9	268	73	-6	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	983	874	175	30	5	19	89	267	11	14	5	200	282	311	594	111	263	27	9	270	70	-30	+1	-1	-11	+21	-2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	116	20	3	13	59	177	7	9	3	201	283	313	596	112	263	27	9	270	70	-20	+1	-1	-7	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2581	2290	459	82	14	50	236	731	31	46	13	200	284	314	598	114	268	28	9	271	70	-71	+3	-2	-24	+49	-4.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	117	21	4	13	59	184	8	12	3	203	286	321	606	118	271	28	9	271	70	-21	+1	-1	-7	+14	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 262 PAwOBA .334 → .256 (−78)K% 25.6% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.57%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	34.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.18%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	11.73%
HBP% /PA	1.91%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.47%
Singles /BIP	20.71%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.966	×0.990	18.23%
Doubles /BIP	5.71%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.966	×0.990	4.54%
Triples /BIP	0.71%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.966	×0.990	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	3.96%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .334 → .256; ISO .150 → .116; BABIP .275 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 71 PAwOBA .178 → .146 (−32)K% 28.2% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.17%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	35.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.23%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	2.99%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	1.11%
Singles /BIP	17.02%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.040	×0.998	16.26%
Doubles /BIP	2.13%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.040	×0.998	1.79%
Triples /BIP	2.13%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.040	×0.998	1.88%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .178 → .146; ISO .045 → .035; BABIP .213 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#3Larry Stahl'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	36	22	235*	297*	387*	-16	+11	2.4	2.9
/162	664	13	8	-5.5	+3.9	0.8	pk7: 4
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.8	1,194	23	19	206	284	323	+1	+4	0.1	0.2
/162	664	13	10	+0.7	+2.2	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake McCutcheon (OGILVIE)	23	24→29	39→44	50→55	60	197/279/303	106	266	4	4	28%	9%	68	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→34	43→45	50	47	194/280/301	107	268	12	10	30%	9%	68	-1.0	192/268/302	110	281	9	13	32%	9%	63	-1.4	180/256/297	117	269	7	16	33%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Darrien Miller 2024 · A	23	39→42	44→45	48→45	47	194/289/310	116	258	12	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	192/313/294	102	262	8	5	27%	11%	80	-0.2	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	38	45→55	47→45	46	195/271/314	120	240	13	8	25%	7%	68	-1.0	215/270/381	166	280	21	4	31%	6%	82	-0.0	212/261/402	190	265	27	0	32%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Randy Florentino 2023 · A	23	37	41→45	47→45	41	184/247/274	90	275	9	6	35%	7%	48	-2.5	197/245/283	86	259	8	6	26%	6%	49	-2.4	182/223/254	73	228	7	4	23%	5%	32	-1.1
✕Jose Brizuela 2016 · A	23	41→39	44→50	50→45	45	206/271/326	120	274	11	7	28%	8%	69	-0.9	208/265/331	123	293	14	5	32%	7%	68	-1.0	187/241/315	128	257	17	1	34%	6%	53	-0.9
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	44→40	55→50	47	201/283/322	121	254	11	15	25%	8%	74	-0.6	215/303/306	91	265	8	14	20%	9%	77	-0.3	215/311/283	68	261	5	15	18%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	39→40	42→45	46→55	54	193/293/304	111	262	9	11	28%	12%	73	-0.6	198/296/310	112	251	10	20	23%	12%	75	-0.5	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	40→30	42→45	51→60	40	198/262/303	106	282	9	12	32%	6%	60	-1.6	182/252/273	91	277	7	13	35%	6%	50	-2.3	178/268/298	120	261	12	28	34%	10%	60	-0.9
✕Daniel Vellojin 2024 · AA	24	39	43→45	45	49	192/277/302	110	267	11	6	30%	10%	66	-1.1	177/253/266	89	250	8	6	31%	8%	49	-2.4	150/230/223	73	210	7	4	31%	8%	29	-1.4
✕Alex Iadisernia 2024 · A	23	38→37	46→50	52→55	43	196/263/328	132	261	14	16	30%	7%	67	-1.1	197/263/295	98	277	8	16	30%	7%	59	-1.7	178/248/250	72	257	3	19	30%	7%	42	-2.0
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	47	218/294/306	88	309	7	13	29%	9%	73	-0.6	202/287/334	132	324	13	21	38%	10%	77	-0.3	193/290/335	142	306	15	26	38%	11%	76	-0.4
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→46	41→50	51→40	45	197/266/297	101	258	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	222/279/357	135	292	15	6	28%	6%	79	-0.2	226/286/369	143	292	17	3	28%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Jonny Butler 2022 · A	23	43→33	40→50	51→55	43	207/268/296	89	302	7	9	32%	8%	61	-1.5	199/264/310	111	281	9	16	31%	7%	62	-1.4	179/252/293	114	245	10	19	30%	8%	52	-1.2
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→39	45→50	48→45	53	209/300/336	128	267	12	11	25%	10%	82	+0.0	201/292/339	138	285	13	8	31%	10%	80	-0.1	178/280/321	143	246	16	6	32%	11%	70	-0.6
✕Clark Elliott 2024 · A	23	42→40	36→45	51→50	49	196/281/257	61	262	4	12	25%	9%	57	-1.8	207/307/309	102	286	9	13	28%	10%	80	-0.2	198/314/306	108	278	10	16	29%	12%	80	-0.1
✕Dom Nuñez 2018 · AA	23	40→46	44→50	49→45	48	203/278/317	113	255	13	8	25%	8%	70	-0.9	200/276/330	130	263	15	8	29%	9%	72	-0.7	181/265/328	147	236	18	5	31%	9%	68	-0.5
✕Michael Pérez 2016 · A	23	35	41→50	42→40	42	178/243/275	96	257	9	4	33%	7%	47	-2.6	210/262/308	98	279	8	3	26%	6%	61	-1.5	225/285/350	124	287	13	0	25%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Brian O'Grady 2015 · A	23	39→38	43→60	54→50	46	194/258/307	113	251	9	8	26%	8%	59	-1.6	188/270/299	111	264	10	14	30%	9%	63	-1.4	212/274/402	190	276	23	15	31%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Carlos Soto 2022 · A	23	40	45	45→30	48	200/279/322	122	273	12	3	30%	9%	72	-0.7	197/273/311	114	289	10	5	33%	9%	66	-1.1	146/235/244	98	221	7	0	35%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Imanol Vargas 2021 · A	23	42→43	44→50	46→45	47	204/287/322	118	294	12	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	206/286/361	155	328	19	4	39%	10%	83	+0.1	198/285/355	157	311	19	2	39%	10%	79	-0.2

Jake McCutcheon

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps