Colton Shaw
P
Everett AquaSox
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
K%23.1%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%14.5%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 3 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 3.2 | 20.5% | 0.0% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 3.72 | 1.37 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 3 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 3.2 | 20.5% | 0.0% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 3.72 | 1.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 15 | 14 | 75 | 305 | 81 | 10 | 7 | 93% | 5.0 | 20.4% | 3.8% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.43 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 25 | 107 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.27 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 100 | 412 | 106 | 19 | 10 | — | — | 25.7% | 4.7% | 21.0% | 2.5% | 4.05 | 3.64 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.1% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 26 | 109 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.7% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.7% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.18 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.7% | 8.5% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 3.80 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 71 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.7% | 8.5% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 3.80 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 18 | 17 | 84 | 344 | 70 | 11 | 9 | 94% | 4.7 | 20.5% | 3.3% | 17.1% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 3.19 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 816 | 167 | 27 | 21 | 94% | 4.7 | 20.5% | 3.3% | 17.1% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 3.19 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colton Shaw (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.18 | 23.7% | 15.3% | 26 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 88 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 84 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 83 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 83 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 82 |
| Chance Kirby R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 17.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.86 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 166 | +1.60 | 4.26 | 325 | 81 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.31 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .281 | 7.92 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.61 | 3.31 | 191 | 81 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 81 |
| Gus Varland R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.13 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .294 | 5.81 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 105 | +1.68 | 2.54 | 304 | 80 |
| Kyle Funkhouser R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .329 | 4.35 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 193 | +0.90 | 3.45 | 387 | 80 |
| Glenn Sparkman R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.90 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .296 | 3.61 | 15.9% | 10.9% | 207 | -0.29 | 3.48 | 363 | 80 |
| Nick Kingham R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.96 | 20.7% | 5.4% | 3.5% | .330 | 3.99 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 276 | +0.03 | 2.31 | 363 | 80 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 79 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 194 | 79 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 79 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.72 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 4.0% | .307 | 6.57 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 61 | +1.85 | 4.72 | 200 | 77 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 77 |
| Blake Burkhalter R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .317 | 3.73 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 103 | +0.15 | 3.58 | 173 | 76 |
| Brendan Beck R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 76 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 1.15 | 4.24 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |