Colton Shaw — OGILVIE

Colton Shaw P Everett AquaSox

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.0 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.10

FIP4.10

K%21.8%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%15.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$36M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	3	3	10	39	8	0	0	100%	3.2	20.5%	0.0%	20.5%	0.0%	3.72	1.37	—
2025	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	3	3	10	39	8	0	0	100%	3.2	20.5%	0.0%	20.5%	0.0%	3.72	1.37	—
2025	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	3	3	10	39	8	0	0	100%	3.2	20.5%	0.0%	20.5%	0.0%	3.72	1.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	23	22	112	463	121	19	11	96%	4.9	20.1%	4.7%	15.4%	3.0%	4.43	3.63	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	23	22	112	463	121	19	11	96%	4.9	20.1%	4.7%	15.4%	3.0%	4.43	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	SEA	23	22	112	463	121	19	11	96%	4.9	26.1%	4.1%	22.0%	2.4%	4.43	2.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	112	473	106	30	14	100%	5.6	22.4%	6.3%	16.0%	3.0%	4.06	4.02	+1.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	114	479	109	30	14	100%	6.0	22.7%	6.3%	16.4%	3.0%	4.02	3.98	+1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	114	479	110	30	14	100%	6.0	22.9%	6.3%	16.6%	3.0%	4.00	3.97	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	112	472	108	30	14	100%	5.9	22.9%	6.5%	16.4%	3.0%	4.01	4.02	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	108	458	104	30	14	100%	6.0	22.7%	6.6%	16.1%	3.1%	4.06	4.10	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	104	437	98	30	14	100%	6.1	22.5%	6.8%	15.7%	3.3%	4.16	4.23	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	SEA	16	16	97	411	91	29	14	100%	6.1	22.1%	7.1%	15.0%	3.5%	4.31	4.41	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	91	383	83	29	14	100%	6.0	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	3.7%	4.49	4.61	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	84	354	75	28	14	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.9%	13.4%	3.9%	4.70	4.84	+0.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	77	325	74	24	14	100%	5.9	22.8%	7.5%	15.3%	4.2%	4.77	4.82	+0.1
2037	34	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	70	296	66	24	13	100%	5.8	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	4.5%	4.96	5.09	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	48	203	45	13	6	100%	5.3	22.4%	6.3%	16.0%	2.9%	4.02	3.98	+0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	75	317	72	20	9	100%	5.8	22.7%	6.3%	16.4%	2.9%	3.98	3.94	+0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	15	15	90	380	87	24	11	100%	6.0	22.9%	6.3%	16.6%	2.9%	3.96	3.93	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	95	401	92	26	12	100%	5.9	22.9%	6.5%	16.4%	2.9%	3.97	3.98	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	96	405	92	27	12	100%	6.0	22.7%	6.6%	16.1%	3.0%	4.02	4.06	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	94	397	89	27	13	100%	5.9	22.5%	6.8%	15.7%	3.2%	4.12	4.19	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	SEA	15	15	90	380	84	27	13	100%	6.0	22.1%	7.1%	15.0%	3.4%	4.26	4.36	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	84	355	77	27	13	100%	6.0	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	3.6%	4.44	4.56	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	79	334	71	26	13	100%	6.1	21.3%	7.9%	13.4%	3.8%	4.65	4.79	+0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	73	308	70	23	13	100%	6.1	22.8%	7.5%	15.3%	4.1%	4.71	4.76	+0.1
2037	34	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	63	266	59	21	12	100%	6.3	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	4.4%	4.90	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		149	149	889	3753	841	262	126	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.0%	15.4%	3.3%	4.25	3.93	+10.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	59	28	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.0%	15.4%	3.3%	4.25	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		26	25	121	502	101	22	14	96%	4.7	20.2%	4.4%	15.8%	2.7%	4.38	3.45	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	827	167	36	23	96%	4.7	20.2%	4.4%	15.8%	2.7%	4.38	3.45	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colton Shaw (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	21.8%	6.4%	3.0%	—	3.99	22.7%	16.3%	339	-0.11	—	—	—
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	87
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	85
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	80
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	79
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	78
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	78
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	77
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	77
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	77
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	76
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	76
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	76
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	76
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	76
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	75
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	74
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	74
Octavio Acosta R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	15.5%	5.6%	4.0%	.337	4.39	16.3%	4.8%	184	-0.34	3.88	333	73
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	92	22.4%	6.9%	1.30	4.27
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17