Colton Shaw

P Everett AquaSox

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#401ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AModesto Nuts	3	3	10	3.72	1.44	20.5%	0.0%	—	K 20.5% · BB 0.0% · FIP 1.37
2026	23	A+SEA	23	22	112	4.43	2.72	26.1%	4.1%	—	K 20.1% · BB 4.7% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	24	MLBSEA	—	—	0	4.07	4.07	19.7%	4.9%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	25	MLBSEA	5	5	27	4.02	4.00	20.3%	5.0%	0.4
2029PROJ51% MLB	26	MLBSEA	7	7	44	4.01	3.99	20.7%	5.2%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 82%

CompsShumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Nick Fraze (age 24) · Brian Edgington (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.07

FIP4.07

K%19.7%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M
Totals		$7M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	3	3	10	39	8	0	0	100%	3.2	20.5%	0.0%	20.5%	0.0%	3.72	1.37	—
2025	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	3	3	10	39	8	0	0	100%	3.2	20.5%	0.0%	20.5%	0.0%	3.72	1.37	—
2025	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	3	3	10	39	8	0	0	100%	3.2	20.5%	0.0%	20.5%	0.0%	3.72	1.44	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	23	22	112	463	121	19	11	96%	4.9	20.1%	4.7%	15.4%	3.0%	4.43	3.63	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	23	22	112	463	121	19	11	96%	4.9	20.1%	4.7%	15.4%	3.0%	4.43	3.63	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	23	22	112	463	121	19	11	96%	4.9	26.1%	4.1%	22.0%	2.4%	4.43	2.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.7%	4.9%	14.8%	3.0%	4.07	4.07	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	88	371	75	19	11	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.0%	15.3%	3.0%	4.06	4.04	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	85	359	74	19	11	100%	6.1	20.7%	5.2%	15.5%	3.0%	4.05	4.03	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	82	347	72	19	11	100%	5.9	20.7%	5.4%	15.3%	3.0%	4.07	4.08	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	78	331	68	19	10	100%	6.0	20.6%	5.6%	15.0%	3.1%	4.13	4.17	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	73	308	63	18	10	100%	6.1	20.4%	5.8%	14.6%	3.3%	4.23	4.30	+0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	66	279	56	17	10	100%	6.0	20.0%	6.1%	13.9%	3.5%	4.38	4.47	+0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	59	247	49	16	9	100%	5.9	19.6%	6.5%	13.2%	3.7%	4.56	4.68	+0.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	56	238	50	14	9	100%	6.3	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	4.0%	4.60	4.63	+0.5
2036	33	MLB MLE	SEA	8	8	48	203	42	13	9	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	4.2%	4.77	4.88	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	5	5	27	114	23	6	3	100%	5.4	20.3%	5.0%	15.3%	2.9%	4.02	4.00	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	44	186	38	10	5	100%	6.3	20.7%	5.2%	15.5%	2.9%	4.01	3.99	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	52	220	45	12	6	100%	5.8	20.7%	5.4%	15.3%	3.0%	4.03	4.04	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	56	236	49	13	7	100%	6.2	20.6%	5.6%	15.0%	3.1%	4.09	4.13	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	56	236	48	14	8	100%	6.2	20.4%	5.8%	14.6%	3.2%	4.19	4.26	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	53	224	45	14	8	100%	5.9	20.0%	6.1%	13.9%	3.4%	4.33	4.42	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	49	207	41	13	7	100%	6.1	19.6%	6.5%	13.2%	3.6%	4.51	4.63	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	49	207	44	13	8	100%	6.1	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	3.9%	4.55	4.58	+0.4
2036	33	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	42	177	37	12	7	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	4.1%	4.71	4.82	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	72	429	1811	371	106	60	100%	6.0	20.5%	5.8%	14.6%	3.3%	4.27	3.94	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	49	28	100%	6.0	20.5%	5.8%	14.6%	3.3%	4.27	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		26	25	121	502	101	22	14	96%	4.7	20.2%	4.4%	15.8%	2.7%	4.38	3.45	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	827	167	36	23	96%	4.7	20.2%	4.4%	15.8%	2.7%	4.38	3.45	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Everett AquaSox · 112 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.63 (+0.91)K% 26.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.13%	—	×0.770	20.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.10%	—	×1.150	4.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.97%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AModesto Nuts · 10 IPFIP 1.37 → 1.82 (+0.45)K% 20.5% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.51%	—	×0.740	15.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.759	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 52).

Result: FIP 1.37 → 1.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colton Shaw (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.05	20.6%	15.4%	255	-0.02	—	—	—
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	88
Nick Fraze R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP	3.86	17.3%	3.5%	3.2%	.261	5.11	17.2%	6.8%	157	+1.25	3.86	278	85
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	84
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	83
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	83
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	82
Boof Bonser R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	20.0%	5.7%	4.3%	.294	4.33	17.8%	10.5%	291	-0.16	3.80	417	82
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	82
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	81
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	81
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	658	81
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.50	459	81
Jimmy Nelson R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	18.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.332	3.69	21.4%	13.0%	532	+0.36	1.32	720	80
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.64	18.2%	11.4%	332	+0.95	3.68	523	80
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	80
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	80
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	79
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.26	16.4%	8.7%	340	+0.28	3.95	448	79
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	79
Jayden Murray R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP	4.14	20.8%	5.3%	3.9%	.167	4.90	16.9%	6.9%	145	+0.76	3.74	365	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	71	20.4%	5.6%	1.28	4.25
Glen Perkins ('17)	3.1	69	19.1%	6.0%	1.07	3.88
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Tyler Duffey ('24)	2.4	61	23.1%	7.0%	1.24	4.57
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42