Harrison Bodendorf

P Lake County Captains

Age 23 LHP 6'5" / 186 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1105ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX3 levels	19	17	78	3.46	3.39	28.0%	11.9%	—	K 20.8% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	23	MLBCLE	—	—	0	5.06	5.06	20.8%	13.6%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCLE	4	4	25	4.87	4.79	21.6%	12.1%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCLE	6	6	37	4.71	4.62	22.1%	11.1%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.4M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.1, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 85%

CompsCaden Grice (age 22) · Brent Headrick (age 23) · Christian MacLeod (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%20.8%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	17	78	336	94	40	7	89%	4.1	20.8%	14.3%	6.5%	2.5%	3.46	4.53	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	17	78	336	94	40	7	89%	4.1	20.8%	14.3%	6.5%	2.5%	3.46	4.53	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	17	78	336	94	40	7	89%	4.1	28.0%	11.9%	16.1%	2.1%	3.46	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	13.6%	7.3%	3.0%	5.06	5.06	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	59	248	54	30	7	100%	5.9	21.6%	12.1%	9.6%	2.9%	4.87	4.79	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	55	233	52	26	7	100%	6.1	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	2.9%	4.71	4.62	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	54	229	51	25	7	100%	6.0	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.58	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	53	222	50	24	7	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	8	8	50	210	47	24	6	100%	6.2	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.67	4.70	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	8	8	46	194	43	22	6	100%	5.8	22.1%	11.4%	10.7%	3.2%	4.77	4.83	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	7	7	42	175	38	21	6	100%	5.9	21.7%	11.7%	10.0%	3.4%	4.91	5.01	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	4	4	25	106	23	13	3	100%	6.2	21.6%	12.1%	9.6%	2.9%	4.87	4.79	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	37	156	35	17	5	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	2.9%	4.71	4.62	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	43	182	41	20	5	100%	6.1	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.58	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	45	190	43	21	6	100%	5.6	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	44	186	41	21	6	100%	6.3	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.67	4.70	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	42	177	39	20	6	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.4%	10.7%	3.2%	4.77	4.83	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	38	160	35	19	5	100%	6.3	21.7%	11.7%	10.0%	3.4%	4.91	5.01	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	274	1157	256	131	35	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.1%	4.72	4.34	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	96	26	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.1%	4.72	4.34	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		19	17	78	336	70	48	8	89%	4.1	20.8%	14.3%	6.5%	2.5%	3.46	4.53	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	44	200	862	179	123	22	89%	4.1	20.8%	14.3%	6.5%	2.5%	3.46	4.53	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 40 IPFIP 4.38 → 5.45 (+1.07)K% 22.5% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.47%	—	×0.770	17.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.92%	—	×1.150	14.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.38 → 5.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AHill City Howlers · 31 IPFIP 2.04 → 3.20 (+1.16)K% 35.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.96%	—	×0.740	25.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.38%	—	×1.180	13.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.06%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Guardians · 7 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.85 (+1.75)K% 31.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.43%	—	×0.680	21.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×1.250	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Harrison Bodendorf (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	20.8%	13.6%	3.0%	—	4.67	22.1%	10.6%	168	-0.39	—	—	—
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	88
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	84
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	83
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	83
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	83
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	83
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	83
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	82
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	82
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	82
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	81
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	81
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	81
Brad Halsey L 2004 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	16.3%	9.2%	2.6%	.336	4.43	11.9%	5.4%	254	+0.12	4.31	286	80
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.69	19.9%	9.7%	345	-0.23	3.25	451	79
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	79
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	79
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	79
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	78
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	51	21.9%	11.6%	1.17	4.78
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*