Harrison Bodendorf

Harrison Bodendorf P Lake County Captains

Age 22 LHP 6'5" / 186 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%22.2%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	19	17	78	336	94	40	7	89%	4.1	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	2.7%	3.46	4.56	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	19	17	78	336	94	40	7	89%	4.1	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	2.7%	3.46	4.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	CLE	3	2	7	35	11	3	1	67%	2.4	31.4%	8.6%	22.9%	2.9%	4.91	3.10	—
2026	22	A RAW	CLE	7	6	31	123	43	14	1	86%	4.4	35.0%	11.4%	23.6%	0.8%	2.35	2.04	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CLE	9	9	40	178	40	23	5	100%	4.4	22.5%	12.9%	9.6%	2.8%	4.05	4.38	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	79	335	77	36	10	100%	5.3	23.1%	10.6%	12.4%	2.9%	4.57	4.50	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	81	343	81	34	10	100%	5.4	23.6%	10.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.35	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	82	347	83	33	10	100%	5.9	23.9%	9.5%	14.5%	2.9%	4.32	4.26	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	82	347	84	33	10	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	2.9%	4.27	4.23	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	81	342	82	32	10	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	79	332	86	29	10	100%	6.1	25.9%	8.8%	17.1%	3.1%	4.16	4.09	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	75	318	82	29	10	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.0%	16.7%	3.2%	4.19	4.22	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	71	299	76	28	10	100%	5.9	25.4%	9.3%	16.0%	3.4%	4.31	4.39	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	66	278	69	27	10	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.7%	15.3%	3.6%	4.48	4.60	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	61	258	63	26	10	100%	6.1	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	3.9%	4.68	4.82	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	39	165	38	18	5	100%	5.6	23.1%	10.6%	12.4%	2.9%	4.57	4.50	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	57	241	57	24	7	100%	5.7	23.6%	10.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.35	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	67	283	68	27	8	100%	6.1	23.9%	9.5%	14.5%	2.9%	4.32	4.26	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	72	304	73	29	9	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	2.9%	4.27	4.23	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	73	308	74	29	9	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	72	304	79	27	9	100%	6.0	25.9%	8.8%	17.1%	3.1%	4.16	4.09	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	70	296	76	27	9	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.0%	16.7%	3.2%	4.19	4.22	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	66	279	71	26	9	100%	6.0	25.4%	9.3%	16.0%	3.4%	4.31	4.39	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	63	266	66	26	10	100%	6.3	25.0%	9.7%	15.3%	3.6%	4.48	4.60	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	58	245	60	25	9	100%	5.8	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	3.9%	4.67	4.81	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	637	2691	662	256	85	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.5%	15.1%	3.2%	4.34	3.97	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	80	27	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.5%	15.1%	3.2%	4.34	3.97	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		19	17	78	336	70	47	9	89%	4.1	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	2.7%	3.46	4.56	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	44	200	862	180	120	23	89%	4.1	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	2.7%	3.46	4.56	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Harrison Bodendorf (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	22.2%	11.7%	3.0%	—	4.37	23.6%	13.5%	243	-0.36	—	—	—
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	84
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	81
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	81
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	79
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	78
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	78
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	77
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	77
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	77
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	76
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	76
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	76
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	75
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	75
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	75
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	75
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	75
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	74
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	71	24.4%	9.6%	1.22	4.37
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33