Miqueas Mercedes

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	10.12	4.41	24.0%	8.0%	—	K 24.0% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.28
2025	19	MIX2 levels	17	13	60	6.34	3.38	21.9%	12.0%	—	K 15.3% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.44
2026	20	MIX2 levels	21	16	79	2.61	3.39	22.2%	14.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.28
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	10	10	48	5.86	5.86	15.2%	17.7%	-0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIL	7	7	37	5.58	5.45	17.3%	15.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	11	11	57	5.29	5.15	18.5%	13.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsKyle Larsen (age 21) · Danny Flatt (age 20) · Trey Riley (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.86

FIP5.86

K%15.2%

BB%17.7%

K-BB%-2.4%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	25	6	2	1	33%	1.8	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	4.0%	10.12	4.28	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	25	6	2	1	33%	1.8	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	4.0%	10.12	4.28	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	25	6	2	1	33%	1.8	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	4.0%	10.12	4.41	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	60	283	62	34	3	76%	3.5	15.3%	14.7%	0.6%	1.4%	6.34	4.44	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	60	283	62	34	3	76%	3.5	15.3%	14.7%	0.6%	1.4%	6.34	4.44	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	60	283	62	34	3	76%	3.5	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	1.1%	6.34	3.38	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	16	79	338	75	49	2	76%	3.8	16.7%	16.9%	-0.2%	0.8%	2.61	4.28	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	16	79	338	75	49	2	76%	3.8	16.7%	16.9%	-0.2%	0.8%	2.61	4.28	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	16	79	338	75	49	2	76%	3.8	22.2%	14.5%	7.7%	0.6%	2.61	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	10	10	48	203	31	36	5	100%	4.8	15.2%	17.7%	-2.4%	2.6%	5.86	5.86	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	75	317	55	49	8	100%	5.0	17.3%	15.3%	2.0%	2.6%	5.51	5.38	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	78	328	61	45	8	100%	5.2	18.5%	13.8%	4.7%	2.6%	5.22	5.08	-0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	80	337	65	43	9	100%	5.7	19.3%	12.8%	6.5%	2.6%	5.00	4.89	+0.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	81	341	67	42	9	100%	5.8	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	2.6%	4.86	4.77	+0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	81	341	68	42	9	100%	6.2	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	2.6%	4.79	4.75	+0.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	80	336	74	39	9	100%	6.1	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	2.6%	4.63	4.52	+0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	77	326	71	38	9	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	2.7%	4.61	4.60	+0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	74	311	67	37	9	100%	6.1	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	2.9%	4.68	4.73	+0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	69	292	62	36	9	100%	5.8	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	3.1%	4.82	4.91	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	37	156	27	24	4	100%	5.3	17.3%	15.3%	2.0%	2.7%	5.58	5.45	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	57	241	45	33	7	100%	5.2	18.5%	13.8%	4.7%	2.7%	5.29	5.15	-0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	66	279	54	36	8	100%	5.5	19.3%	12.8%	6.5%	2.7%	5.07	4.96	+0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	71	300	59	37	8	100%	5.9	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	2.7%	4.93	4.84	+0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	74	312	62	38	8	100%	6.2	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	2.7%	4.86	4.82	+0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	74	312	69	36	9	100%	6.2	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.70	4.59	+0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	72	304	66	35	9	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.67	+0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	70	296	64	35	9	100%	5.8	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	3.0%	4.76	4.81	+0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	66	279	59	34	9	100%	6.0	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	3.2%	4.90	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	101	586	2475	505	308	70	100%	5.8	20.4%	12.4%	8.0%	2.8%	4.93	4.50	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	172	105	24	100%	5.8	20.4%	12.4%	8.0%	2.8%	4.93	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		41	30	144	646	106	100	8	73%	3.5	16.3%	15.6%	0.8%	1.2%	4.43	4.35	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	42	200	895	146	139	11	73%	3.5	16.3%	15.6%	0.8%	1.2%	4.43	4.35	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miqueas Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	15.2%	17.7%	2.6%	—	5.11	18.4%	4.4%	232	-0.75	—	—	—
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	91
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	86
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	85
Ismael Agreda R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SP-	5.28	17.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.269	4.71	21.1%	6.1%	178	-0.57	3.35	272	84
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	84
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	84
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	84
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	83
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	82
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	82
Samuel Colmenares R 2024 · 6.21 FIP	19	SP-	6.21	17.3%	21.0%	3.5%	.292	3.85	15.8%	8.0%	31	-2.36	3.85	123	81
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	81
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	81
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	80
Wilmer Blanco R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	20	SP	5.76	14.9%	16.3%	3.4%	.364	5.82	14.1%	2.3%	47	+0.06	3.81	163	80
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	80
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	80
Jesus Lafalaise R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	19	SP-	5.54	13.0%	22.7%	1.2%	.368	4.19	17.0%	2.6%	147	-1.35	3.53	172	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	74	19.9%	13.0%	1.03	4.96
Ed Farmer ('71-'83, -2 WAR*)	3.1	69	21.3%*	12.2%*	1.03*	4.71*
Curt Leskanic ('04)	3.6	65	20.6%	11.6%	1.01	4.36
Ron Villone ('09)	5.8	78	17.8%	12.3%	1.05	4.73
Brian Boehringer ('04)	2.7	67	18.2%	11.5%	1.08	4.36
Jamie Easterly ('74-'87, -1 WAR*)	3.1	61	18.7%*	11.4%*	0.91*	4.82*
Greg Cadaret ('87-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.6	80	22.3%*	12.1%*	0.88*	4.14*