Javier Perez — OGILVIE

Javier Perez P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%18.1%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%13.2%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$46M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$23M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	9	8	21	76	23	4	0	89%	2.3	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	0.0%	1.31	2.20	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	9	8	21	76	23	4	0	89%	2.3	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	0.0%	1.31	2.20	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	9	8	21	76	23	4	0	89%	2.3	30.3%	5.3%	25.0%	0.0%	1.31	1.45	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	69	272	70	11	5	42%	3.6	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	2.5%	2.88	3.56	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	69	272	70	11	5	42%	3.6	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	2.5%	2.88	3.56	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	8	69	272	70	11	5	42%	3.6	25.7%	4.0%	21.7%	1.8%	2.88	2.49	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	23	21	110	452	132	26	14	91%	4.8	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	4.0%	4.25	4.32	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	23	21	110	452	132	26	14	91%	4.8	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	4.0%	4.25	4.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	HOU	18	17	89	360	103	20	13	94%	5.0	28.6%	5.6%	23.1%	3.6%	4.23	3.37	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	HOU	5	4	21	92	29	6	1	80%	4.1	31.5%	6.5%	25.0%	1.1%	4.35	1.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	112	472	91	23	14	100%	5.6	19.3%	4.9%	14.3%	2.9%	4.11	4.06	+1.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	114	483	97	24	14	100%	5.7	20.0%	4.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.04	3.98	+1.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	116	489	100	24	14	100%	5.8	20.5%	4.9%	15.6%	2.9%	3.98	3.94	+1.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	116	489	101	24	14	100%	6.1	20.7%	4.9%	15.8%	2.9%	3.95	3.92	+1.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	114	482	100	24	14	100%	6.0	20.7%	5.0%	15.7%	2.9%	3.96	3.96	+1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	111	468	96	24	14	100%	6.2	20.6%	5.2%	15.4%	3.0%	4.01	4.05	+1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	106	447	91	24	14	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.4%	14.9%	3.2%	4.11	4.18	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	100	420	84	24	14	100%	5.9	20.0%	5.7%	14.3%	3.4%	4.26	4.36	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	93	392	77	24	14	100%	6.2	19.6%	6.0%	13.6%	3.6%	4.44	4.56	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	86	362	69	23	14	100%	6.1	19.1%	6.5%	12.7%	3.8%	4.65	4.78	+0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	79	332	69	20	14	100%	6.1	20.6%	6.1%	14.5%	4.1%	4.72	4.76	+0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	72	302	61	20	13	100%	6.0	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	4.4%	4.91	5.04	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	55	232	45	11	7	100%	5.5	19.3%	4.9%	14.3%	2.8%	4.07	4.02	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	80	338	68	17	9	100%	5.7	20.0%	4.9%	15.1%	2.8%	4.00	3.94	+0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	94	397	81	19	11	100%	5.9	20.5%	4.9%	15.6%	2.8%	3.94	3.90	+1.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	17	17	101	426	88	21	12	100%	5.9	20.7%	4.9%	15.8%	2.8%	3.91	3.88	+1.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	17	17	103	435	90	22	12	100%	6.1	20.7%	5.0%	15.7%	2.8%	3.92	3.92	+1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	17	17	102	431	89	22	13	100%	6.0	20.6%	5.2%	15.4%	2.9%	3.96	4.00	+1.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	98	414	84	22	13	100%	6.1	20.3%	5.4%	14.9%	3.1%	4.06	4.13	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	93	393	79	22	13	100%	5.8	20.0%	5.7%	14.3%	3.3%	4.21	4.31	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	88	372	73	22	13	100%	5.9	19.6%	6.0%	13.6%	3.5%	4.39	4.51	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	82	346	66	22	13	100%	5.9	19.1%	6.5%	12.7%	3.7%	4.59	4.72	+0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	75	317	65	19	13	100%	6.2	20.6%	6.1%	14.5%	4.0%	4.66	4.70	+0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	65	274	55	18	12	100%	5.9	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	4.3%	4.84	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		175	175	1036	4375	883	240	139	100%	5.9	20.2%	5.5%	14.7%	3.2%	4.18	3.84	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	170	46	27	100%	5.9	20.2%	5.5%	14.7%	3.2%	4.18	3.84	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		51	37	199	800	163	49	25	73%	3.9	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	3.1%	3.48	3.86	+9.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	37	200	803	164	49	25	73%	3.9	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	3.1%	3.48	3.86	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javier Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	18.1%	4.9%	2.9%	—	3.99	19.9%	15.0%	342	-0.19	—	—	—
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	86
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	85
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	85
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	84
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	84
Logan Shore R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	22	SP-	3.09	18.3%	5.9%	1.4%	.350	4.17	13.2%	4.9%	188	+1.08	3.09	386	83
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	83
Sam Tewes R 2017 · 3.72 FIP	22	SP-	3.72	14.0%	3.7%	2.4%	.340	4.71	11.2%	3.5%	61	+0.99	3.72	105	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Adam Mazur R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP-	3.22	18.0%	4.9%	1.9%	.326	4.90	17.7%	10.8%	264	+1.68	3.22	360	81
Michael Rucker R 2017 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP-	3.22	18.9%	5.8%	1.8%	.298	4.43	19.1%	11.7%	208	+1.21	3.22	589	81
Adam Oller R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP-	4.86	13.3%	4.8%	4.2%	.322	4.53	17.4%	9.0%	160	-0.33	3.47	670	81
Dylan Unsworth R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	16.9%	4.2%	2.9%	.333	4.05	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.27	3.05	377	81
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	80
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	79
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	79
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	79
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	98	20.1%	5.4%	1.25	4.21
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36