Javier Perez

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.4 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#199ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	9	8	21	1.31	1.45	30.3%	5.3%	—	K 20.6% · BB 6.6% · FIP 2.20
2025	21	MIX2 levels	19	8	69	2.88	2.49	25.7%	4.0%	—	K 18.0% · BB 5.0% · FIP 3.56
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	21	110	4.25	3.06	29.2%	5.8%	—	K 21.8% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.32
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	—	—	0	4.18	4.18	20.8%	5.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	7	7	38	4.09	4.05	21.5%	5.8%	0.6
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	10	10	56	4.04	4.00	21.9%	5.8%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control55Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 5.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%

CompsBraxton Bragg (age 23) · Zack Lee (age 23) · Pat Gallagher (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%20.8%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP77

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$49M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$8M		$18M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	9	8	21	76	23	4	0	89%	2.3	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	0.0%	1.31	2.20	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	9	8	21	76	23	4	0	89%	2.3	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	0.0%	1.31	2.20	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	9	8	21	76	23	4	0	89%	2.3	30.3%	5.3%	25.0%	0.0%	1.31	1.45	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	69	272	70	11	5	42%	3.6	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	2.5%	2.88	3.56	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	69	272	70	11	5	42%	3.6	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	2.5%	2.88	3.56	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	8	69	272	70	11	5	42%	3.6	25.7%	4.0%	21.7%	1.8%	2.88	2.49	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	110	452	132	26	14	91%	4.8	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	4.0%	4.25	4.32	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	110	452	132	26	14	91%	4.8	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	4.0%	4.25	4.32	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	110	452	132	26	14	91%	4.8	29.2%	5.8%	23.5%	3.1%	4.25	3.06	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	5.9%	14.9%	3.1%	4.18	4.18	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	88	373	80	22	12	100%	5.5	21.5%	5.8%	15.7%	3.1%	4.14	4.10	+1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	84	355	78	21	11	100%	6.0	21.9%	5.8%	16.1%	3.1%	4.09	4.05	+1.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	83	352	78	21	11	100%	6.0	22.1%	5.9%	16.2%	3.1%	4.07	4.04	+1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	81	344	76	21	11	100%	5.8	22.1%	6.0%	16.1%	3.1%	4.08	4.08	+1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	78	328	72	20	11	100%	6.0	21.9%	6.2%	15.8%	3.2%	4.13	4.17	+1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	72	306	66	20	10	100%	6.0	21.7%	6.4%	15.3%	3.4%	4.23	4.30	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	66	277	59	19	10	100%	6.0	21.4%	6.7%	14.7%	3.6%	4.38	4.48	+0.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	58	246	52	17	9	100%	5.8	21.0%	7.0%	13.9%	3.8%	4.56	4.68	+0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	56	236	53	16	10	100%	6.2	22.5%	6.6%	15.9%	4.0%	4.61	4.64	+0.5
2037	33	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	48	201	44	14	9	100%	6.0	22.0%	7.1%	14.9%	4.3%	4.78	4.89	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	38	160	34	9	5	100%	5.4	21.5%	5.8%	15.7%	3.0%	4.09	4.05	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	56	236	52	14	7	100%	5.6	21.9%	5.8%	16.1%	3.0%	4.04	4.00	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	66	279	62	16	8	100%	6.0	22.1%	5.9%	16.2%	3.0%	4.02	3.99	+1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	69	291	64	17	9	100%	5.8	22.1%	6.0%	16.1%	3.0%	4.03	4.03	+1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	69	291	64	18	9	100%	5.8	21.9%	6.2%	15.8%	3.1%	4.08	4.12	+1.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	66	279	60	18	9	100%	6.0	21.7%	6.4%	15.3%	3.3%	4.18	4.25	+0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	60	253	54	17	9	100%	6.0	21.4%	6.7%	14.7%	3.5%	4.33	4.43	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	54	228	48	16	8	100%	6.0	21.0%	7.0%	13.9%	3.7%	4.50	4.62	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	52	220	49	15	9	100%	5.8	22.5%	6.6%	15.9%	3.9%	4.55	4.58	+0.5
2037	33	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	45	190	42	13	8	100%	5.6	22.0%	7.1%	14.9%	4.2%	4.71	4.82	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	97	576	2433	531	154	81	100%	5.9	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	3.3%	4.23	3.89	+10.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	53	28	100%	6.0	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	3.3%	4.23	3.89	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		51	37	199	800	163	49	25	73%	3.9	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	3.1%	3.48	3.86	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	37	200	803	164	49	25	73%	3.9	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	3.1%	3.48	3.86	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 89 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.72 (+1.35)K% 28.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.61%	—	×0.740	21.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.180	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	3.61%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.69%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 21 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.75 (+0.89)K% 31.5% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.52%	—	×0.770	24.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.52%	—	×1.150	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Astros · 43 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.56 (+1.30)K% 28.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.92%	—	×0.680	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.82%	—	×1.250	6.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷1.023	×1.400	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 26 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.57 (+0.82)K% 20.8% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.75%	—	×0.740	15.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.83%	—	×1.180	3.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.005	×1.300	2.44%

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Astros Blue · 21 IPFIP 1.21 → 2.20 (+0.98)K% 30.3% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.26%	—	×0.680	20.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.250	6.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.981	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.21 → 2.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javier Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	20.8%	5.9%	3.1%	—	4.06	21.8%	16.0%	256	-0.12	—	—	—
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	91
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	88
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	87
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	86
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	86
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	84
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	84
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	84
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	84
Reid Johnston R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	19.4%	6.1%	2.8%	.297	5.00	19.5%	5.6%	92	+1.26	3.74	234	84
Michael Rucker R 2017 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP-	3.22	18.9%	5.8%	1.8%	.298	4.43	19.1%	11.7%	208	+1.21	3.22	595	84
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	84
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	83
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	83
Martin Agosta R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	21.6%	6.2%	4.1%	.340	4.58	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.28	4.30	146	83
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	82
Brock Stewart R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.9%	6.4%	3.2%	.343	3.46	20.9%	14.1%	304	-0.71	1.51	622	81
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	81
Mariano Salomon R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	21	SP-	3.48	21.0%	6.9%	2.3%	.282	4.85	18.5%	10.4%	67	+1.37	2.60	158	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	72	21.7%	6.2%	1.30	4.25
Jesse Chavez ('25)	5.7	82	21.4%	7.4%	1.32	4.27
Tyler Duffey ('24)	2.4	61	23.1%	7.0%	1.24	4.57
Bob Lacey ('77-'84, 2 WAR*)	2.3	75	20.5%*	7.3%*	1.35*	4.11*
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Craig Lefferts ('83-'94, 10 WAR*)	5.7	95	19.5%*	6.7%*	1.40*	3.93*