Javier Perez
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
K%18.1%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 9 | 8 | 21 | 76 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 89% | 2.3 | 20.6% | 6.6% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 1.31 | 2.20 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 9 | 8 | 21 | 76 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 89% | 2.3 | 30.3% | 5.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.31 | 1.45 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 8 | 69 | 272 | 70 | 11 | 5 | 42% | 3.6 | 18.0% | 5.0% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 2.88 | 3.54 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 8 | 69 | 272 | 70 | 11 | 5 | 42% | 3.6 | 25.7% | 4.0% | 21.7% | 1.8% | 2.88 | 2.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 15 | 14 | 77 | 301 | 89 | 13 | 9 | 93% | 5.1 | 21.9% | 5.1% | 16.8% | 3.9% | 3.17 | 4.03 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 52 | 222 | 40 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.1% | 5.7% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 129 | 523 | 129 | 26 | 15 | — | — | 24.7% | 4.9% | 19.8% | 3.0% | 3.62 | 4.13 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 45 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 5.8% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.2% | 5.8% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 50 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.8% | 5.8% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 50 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.0% | 5.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.0% | 5.9% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 48 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 6.1% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 52 | 218 | 45 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.6% | 6.3% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 49 | 205 | 42 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 45 | 191 | 38 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 7.0% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.4% | 5.8% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 33 | 10 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.2% | 5.8% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 40 | 11 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 5.8% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 5.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 44 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.0% | 5.9% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 44 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.9% | 6.1% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 42 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 6.3% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.9% | 7.0% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 67 | 398 | 1680 | 345 | 103 | 53 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 3.87 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 173 | 52 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 30 | 166 | 649 | 130 | 34 | 18 | 70% | 3.9 | 20.1% | 5.2% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 2.82 | 3.61 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 36 | 200 | 782 | 157 | 41 | 22 | 70% | 3.9 | 20.1% | 5.2% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 2.82 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javier Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.08 | 20.1% | 14.3% | 167 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Nick Payero R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 87 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 87 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .330 | 5.02 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.59 | 4.37 | 292 | 85 |
| Zack Lee R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.41 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .293 | 5.18 | 14.7% | 5.9% | 130 | +1.77 | 3.41 | 213 | 85 |
| Matt Eckelman R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.30 | 15.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | .265 | 4.60 | 16.3% | 5.4% | 169 | +0.30 | 4.10 | 386 | 85 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 84 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2029 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 84 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 83 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 83 |
| Lucas Long R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.11 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | .300 | 3.83 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 386 | -1.28 | 3.42 | 441 | 83 |
| Tanner Jones R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .317 | 4.83 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 68 | +1.03 | 3.80 | 108 | 82 |
| Sam Tewes R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.08 | 14.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.68 | 11.2% | 3.5% | 61 | +0.60 | 4.08 | 105 | 82 |
| Cole Peschl R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.36 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 1.4% | .304 | 5.18 | 15.1% | 6.3% | 46 | +1.82 | 3.36 | 115 | 82 |
| Nick Dean R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 82 |
| Adam Mazur R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.48 | 18.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .326 | 5.15 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 264 | +1.67 | 3.48 | 360 | 82 |
| Adam Oller R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.86 | 13.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | .322 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 160 | -0.45 | 3.41 | 670 | 82 |
| Luis Santos R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 81 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 81 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 81 |
| Michael Rucker R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 1.9% | .298 | 4.44 | 19.1% | 11.7% | 208 | +1.15 | 3.29 | 564 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 53 | 20.2% | 6.1% | 1.17 | 4.19 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Jake McGee ('22) | 8 | 44 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 1.34 | 4.27 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Tommy Hunter ('23) | 7 | 41 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 1.00 | 3.72 |
| Joe Smith ('22) | 7 | 44 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 1.08 | 3.67 |