Javier Perez
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
+0.4
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.25
FIP4.25
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.1%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%14.0%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 9 | 8 | 21 | 76 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 20.6% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 1.31 | 2.20 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 19 | 8 | 69 | 272 | 70 | 11 | 5 | 18.0% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.88 | 3.54 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 3 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 26.5% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 4.15 | 7.09 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 49 | 18 | 6 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 66 | 276 | 68 | 21 | 10 | 24.8% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 4.23 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 53 | 18 | 7 | 23.0% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 56 | 19 | 7 | 23.6% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 57 | 19 | 7 | 23.9% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 58 | 19 | 7 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 57 | 19 | 7 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 57 | 18 | 7 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 55 | 18 | 7 | 24.0% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 53 | 18 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 51 | 18 | 7 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 48 | 17 | 7 | 23.3% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 18 | 102 | 401 | 79 | 22 | 12 | 19.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.73 | 3.75 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 35 | 200 | 784 | 154 | 43 | 23 | 19.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.73 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javier Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.06 | 23.5% | 15.6% | 168 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 93 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 92 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 91 |
| Parker Curry R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.75 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .341 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.85 | 3.75 | 256 | 91 |
| RJ Petit R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.50 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | .270 | 3.45 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 177 | -1.05 | 3.09 | 231 | 91 |
| Breckin Williams R 2028 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 90 |
| John Russell R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.98 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.78 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 60 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 158 | 90 |
| John Fasola R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.82 | 21.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | .294 | 2.97 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 58 | -0.85 | 2.72 | 124 | 89 |
| Adam Parks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.77 | 21.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .356 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 16.7% | 64 | +0.33 | 3.45 | 137 | 89 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 89 |
| Sam Bragg R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.26 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 3.98 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 203 | +0.72 | 3.26 | 277 | 89 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 88 |
| Darin Gillies R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | .236 | 4.71 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 183 | +0.48 | 4.22 | 295 | 88 |
| Jack Anderson R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.09 | 21.7% | 6.1% | 1.9% | .333 | 4.28 | 18.8% | 12.8% | 207 | +1.19 | 3.09 | 267 | 88 |
| Jordan Piche R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.40 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.22 | 12.3% | 5.4% | 55 | +0.82 | 3.40 | 115 | 88 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 88 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.53 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 3.8% | .271 | 4.71 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | +0.18 | 3.87 | 278 | 88 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .295 | 3.40 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.19 | 2.03 | 164 | 88 |
| Garrett McMillan R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.31 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .324 | 3.52 | 18.9% | 14.6% | 48 | +0.21 | 3.31 | 118 | 88 |
| Abel De Los Santos R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.85 | 18.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | .281 | 3.73 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 94 | -0.12 | 3.68 | 152 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $13M | +$8M | ||