Braylon Owens — OGILVIE

Braylon Owens P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 228 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%23.5%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	21	14	94	394	118	43	8	67%	4.5	23.5%	12.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.04	4.06	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	21	14	94	394	118	43	8	67%	4.5	23.5%	12.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.04	4.06	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIL	14	9	64	263	79	26	6	64%	4.5	30.0%	9.9%	20.2%	2.3%	3.82	3.07	—
2026	23	AA RAW	MIL	7	5	30	131	39	17	2	71%	4.3	29.8%	13.0%	16.8%	1.5%	4.50	3.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	94	397	95	40	12	100%	6.7	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	2.9%	4.41	4.35	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	95	402	97	38	12	100%	6.8	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	2.9%	4.32	4.26	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	95	402	97	38	12	100%	6.8	24.2%	9.4%	14.8%	2.9%	4.27	4.23	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	94	396	96	37	12	100%	6.7	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	91	384	92	37	12	100%	6.5	24.0%	9.6%	14.4%	3.1%	4.32	4.36	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	87	367	87	36	12	100%	6.7	23.8%	9.8%	14.0%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	82	345	81	35	12	100%	6.8	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	76	322	80	31	12	100%	6.9	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	3.7%	4.59	4.60	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	70	298	73	30	12	100%	6.4	24.6%	10.0%	14.5%	3.9%	4.73	4.82	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	40	169	40	17	5	100%	6.7	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	3.1%	4.49	4.43	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	63	266	64	25	8	100%	7.0	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	3.1%	4.40	4.34	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	75	317	77	30	10	100%	6.8	24.2%	9.4%	14.8%	3.1%	4.35	4.31	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	80	338	81	32	11	100%	6.7	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.1%	4.35	4.35	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	81	342	82	33	11	100%	6.8	24.0%	9.6%	14.4%	3.2%	4.40	4.44	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	79	334	79	33	11	100%	6.6	23.8%	9.8%	14.0%	3.4%	4.51	4.58	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	75	317	74	32	11	100%	6.8	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	3.6%	4.66	4.76	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	71	300	75	29	12	100%	6.5	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	3.8%	4.69	4.70	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	66	279	68	28	11	100%	6.6	24.6%	10.0%	14.5%	4.1%	4.84	4.93	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	94	631	2666	643	259	91	100%	6.7	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	3.4%	4.52	4.16	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	204	82	29	100%	6.7	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	3.4%	4.52	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		21	14	94	394	92	49	10	67%	4.5	23.5%	12.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.04	4.06	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	30	200	841	197	104	21	67%	4.5	23.5%	12.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.04	4.06	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braylon Owens (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	23.5%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.28	24.1%	14.4%	284	-0.24	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	81
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	81
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	79
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	77
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	77
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	76
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	76
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	75
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	75
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	75
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	74
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	74
Travis Herrin R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	21.1%	7.3%	3.9%	.315	4.92	17.6%	5.2%	106	+0.52	4.40	236	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	80	24.1%	9.7%	1.24	4.42
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04