Braylon Owens

P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 228 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#456ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	21	14	94	4.04	3.07	29.9%	10.9%	—	K 23.5% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.06
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIL	—	—	0	4.57	4.57	23.5%	12.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIL	5	5	31	4.54	4.49	23.8%	10.9%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIL	7	7	46	4.48	4.46	23.8%	10.6%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$1M2034Arb-2$1M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 6.5, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 83%

CompsAngel Guzman (age 24) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Tyler Uberstine (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%23.5%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.6M
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2035	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	94	394	118	43	8	67%	4.5	23.5%	12.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.04	4.06	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	94	394	118	43	8	67%	4.5	23.5%	12.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.04	4.06	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	94	394	118	43	8	67%	4.5	29.9%	10.9%	19.0%	2.0%	4.04	3.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	2.8%	4.57	4.57	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	73	307	73	33	9	100%	6.6	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	2.8%	4.46	4.41	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	70	294	70	31	8	100%	7.0	23.8%	10.6%	13.2%	2.8%	4.40	4.38	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	67	282	67	30	8	100%	6.7	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.9%	4.40	4.41	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	64	268	63	28	8	100%	7.1	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	65	274	69	28	9	100%	6.5	25.3%	10.1%	15.3%	3.2%	4.39	4.35	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	59	248	62	26	8	100%	6.5	25.0%	10.3%	14.6%	3.4%	4.47	4.53	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	52	219	54	23	8	100%	6.5	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.62	4.73	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	45	190	46	21	7	100%	6.4	24.1%	11.1%	13.0%	3.8%	4.82	4.95	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	31	131	31	14	4	100%	6.2	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	3.0%	4.54	4.49	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	46	194	46	21	6	100%	6.6	23.8%	10.6%	13.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.46	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	52	220	52	23	7	100%	6.5	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.49	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	53	224	53	24	7	100%	6.6	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	3.2%	4.53	4.57	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	57	241	61	24	8	100%	6.3	25.3%	10.1%	15.3%	3.3%	4.48	4.44	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	53	224	56	23	8	100%	6.6	25.0%	10.3%	14.6%	3.5%	4.56	4.62	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	47	198	49	21	7	100%	6.7	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.8%	4.72	4.83	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	42	177	43	20	7	100%	7.0	24.1%	11.1%	13.0%	4.0%	4.93	5.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	57	381	1610	391	170	54	100%	6.7	24.3%	10.6%	13.7%	3.4%	4.58	4.23	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	205	89	28	100%	6.7	24.3%	10.6%	13.7%	3.4%	4.58	4.23	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		21	14	94	394	92	49	10	67%	4.5	23.5%	12.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.04	4.06	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	30	200	841	197	104	21	67%	4.5	23.5%	12.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.04	4.06	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 64 IPFIP 3.07 → 4.15 (+1.08)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.04%	—	×0.770	23.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.89%	—	×1.150	11.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 30 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.88 (+0.81)K% 29.8% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.77%	—	×0.810	24.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.98%	—	×1.100	14.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.53%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.83%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braylon Owens (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	23.5%	12.0%	2.8%	—	4.40	23.8%	13.1%	209	-0.17	—	—	—
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	86
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	85
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	82
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	81
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	80
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	80
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	80
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	80
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	80
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	80
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	79
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	21.3%	10.9%	176	+0.51	3.89	296	79
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Tim Redding R 2002 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	19.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	4.48	13.8%	5.4%	307	+0.08	3.97	822	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	78
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	62	24.1%	10.8%	1.20	4.49
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*