Ricardo Osorio — OGILVIE

Ricardo Osorio P DSL Athletics

Age 18 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.3 · 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%21.8%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$30M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.5M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	15	2	22	97	25	14	0	13%	1.4	17.5%	18.0%	-0.5%	0.0%	4.98	3.91	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	15	2	22	97	25	14	0	13%	1.4	17.5%	18.0%	-0.5%	0.0%	4.98	3.91	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	15	2	22	97	25	14	0	13%	1.4	25.8%	14.4%	11.3%	0.0%	4.98	2.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	11	51	213	49	15	0	100%	4.6	15.6%	8.8%	6.8%	0.0%	4.09	2.89	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	11	51	213	49	15	0	100%	4.6	15.6%	8.8%	6.8%	0.0%	4.09	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	OAK	11	11	51	213	49	15	0	100%	4.6	23.0%	7.0%	16.0%	0.0%	4.09	2.05	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	52	220	49	29	6	100%	5.2	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.94	4.85	+0.0
2028	20	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	55	231	53	28	7	100%	5.5	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	2.8%	4.73	4.61	+0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	57	242	56	27	7	100%	5.2	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	2.8%	4.55	4.43	+0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	60	255	61	26	7	100%	5.5	24.1%	10.1%	14.0%	2.7%	4.35	4.21	+0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	63	264	66	25	7	100%	5.2	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	2.7%	4.17	4.05	+0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	64	271	69	25	7	100%	5.8	25.4%	9.1%	16.3%	2.6%	4.03	3.94	+0.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	65	274	71	24	7	100%	5.9	25.8%	8.9%	16.9%	2.6%	3.93	3.87	+0.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	65	274	71	24	7	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.8%	17.1%	2.6%	3.88	3.85	+0.8
2035	27	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	64	270	70	24	7	100%	5.8	26.0%	8.9%	17.0%	2.7%	3.88	3.88	+0.8
2027	19	MLB CTX	OAK	5	5	26	110	25	15	3	100%	5.2	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	2.8%	4.90	4.81	+0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	40	169	39	20	5	100%	5.0	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	2.7%	4.69	4.57	+0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	48	203	47	22	5	100%	5.3	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	2.7%	4.51	4.39	+0.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	54	228	55	23	6	100%	5.4	24.1%	10.1%	14.0%	2.6%	4.31	4.17	+0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	58	245	61	23	6	100%	5.3	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	2.6%	4.13	4.01	+0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	60	253	64	23	7	100%	5.5	25.4%	9.1%	16.3%	2.6%	3.99	3.90	+0.7
2033	25	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	62	262	67	23	7	100%	5.6	25.8%	8.9%	16.9%	2.6%	3.89	3.83	+0.8
2034	26	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	62	262	68	23	7	100%	6.2	26.0%	8.8%	17.1%	2.6%	3.84	3.81	+0.8
2035	27	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	61	258	67	23	7	100%	6.1	26.0%	8.9%	17.0%	2.6%	3.84	3.84	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	84	470	1986	492	196	52	100%	5.6	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	2.6%	4.16	3.70	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	209	83	22	100%	5.6	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	2.6%	4.16	3.70	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		26	13	72	310	50	36	0	50%	2.8	16.2%	11.7%	4.5%	0.0%	4.35	3.21	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	36	200	857	139	100	0	50%	2.8	16.2%	11.7%	4.5%	0.0%	4.35	3.21	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricardo Osorio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	21.8%	15.1%	2.9%	—	4.62	22.8%	10.8%	164	-0.54	—	—	—
Gerelmi Maldonado R 2022 · 4.23 FIP	18	SP-	4.23	24.0%	14.2%	2.5%	.337	4.58	19.9%	2.2%	124	+0.35	3.83	225	84
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	84
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	84
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	84
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	82
Alexander Cornielle R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	19	SW	4.01	24.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.329	4.37	19.2%	7.6%	312	+0.36	3.88	548	82
Jesus Rivero R 2021 · 5.42 FIP	18	SP-	5.42	21.7%	22.1%	2.5%	.224	4.35	21.7%	1.5%	117	-1.07	4.09	146	81
Ernesto Jaquez R 2017 · 4.99 FIP	18	SW	4.99	18.4%	16.9%	2.4%	.265	2.56	24.8%	15.7%	53	-2.43	2.56	239	81
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	80
Eliazar Dishmey R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	18	SW	6.05	17.9%	15.1%	4.6%	.302	3.83	21.9%	9.2%	268	-2.22	3.40	311	80
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	79
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	79
Starlyn Castillo R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	19	SP-	4.17	16.4%	13.1%	1.5%	.271	4.76	15.3%	0.9%	117	+0.59	4.17	138	78
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	78
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	78
Heisell Baro R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	17	SP-	4.37	19.0%	11.9%	2.5%	.196	5.91	15.8%	-1.4%	61	+1.54	4.25	105	77
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	77
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	77
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	199	77
Andry Cuevas R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	18	SW	4.68	18.2%	17.1%	1.7%	.223	4.21	20.7%	2.6%	71	-0.47	3.71	108	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	56	24.5%	10.2%	1.05	4.27
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93