Ricardo Osorio

P DSL Athletics

Age 19 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.8 · 2032

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1172ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKOAK	15	2	22	4.98	2.73	25.8%	14.4%	—	K 17.5% · BB 18.0% · FIP 3.91
2026	18	ROKOAK	11	11	51	4.09	2.05	23.0%	7.0%	—	K 15.6% · BB 8.8% · FIP 2.89
2027PROJ	19	MLBOAK	—	—	0	4.66	4.66	19.6%	10.3%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBOAK	4	4	20	4.50	4.44	20.6%	9.7%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	21	MLBOAK	6	6	30	4.38	4.31	21.2%	9.2%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsEdwin Jimenez (age 19) · Gilberto Batista (age 19) · Luis Victorino (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%19.6%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP29

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	15	2	22	97	25	14	0	13%	1.4	17.5%	18.0%	-0.5%	0.0%	4.98	3.91	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	15	2	22	97	25	14	0	13%	1.4	17.5%	18.0%	-0.5%	0.0%	4.98	3.91	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	15	2	22	97	25	14	0	13%	1.4	25.8%	14.4%	11.3%	0.0%	4.98	2.73	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	11	51	213	49	15	0	100%	4.6	15.6%	8.8%	6.8%	0.0%	4.09	2.89	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	11	51	213	49	15	0	100%	4.6	15.6%	8.8%	6.8%	0.0%	4.09	2.89	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	11	11	51	213	49	15	0	100%	4.6	23.0%	7.0%	16.0%	0.0%	4.09	2.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	2.8%	4.66	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	41	174	36	17	5	100%	5.2	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	2.8%	4.54	4.48	+0.4
2029	21	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	41	174	37	16	5	100%	5.2	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	2.7%	4.42	4.35	+0.5
2030	22	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	43	181	40	16	5	100%	5.3	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	2.7%	4.27	4.17	+0.6
2031	23	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	44	184	42	15	5	100%	5.5	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	2.6%	4.13	4.04	+0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	44	184	43	15	5	100%	5.5	23.5%	8.2%	15.4%	2.6%	4.02	3.95	+0.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	43	180	43	14	5	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.0%	15.9%	2.6%	3.95	3.90	+0.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	43	182	44	15	5	100%	6.2	24.1%	8.0%	16.1%	2.6%	3.90	3.87	+0.8
2035	27	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	42	178	43	14	5	100%	6.0	24.1%	8.1%	16.0%	2.6%	3.91	3.91	+0.8
2028	20	MLB CTX	OAK	4	4	20	84	17	8	2	100%	5.0	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	2.7%	4.50	4.44	+0.2
2029	21	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	30	127	27	12	3	100%	5.0	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	2.6%	4.38	4.31	+0.4
2030	22	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	36	152	34	13	4	100%	5.1	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	2.6%	4.23	4.13	+0.5
2031	23	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	39	165	38	14	4	100%	5.6	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	2.6%	4.09	4.00	+0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	40	169	40	14	4	100%	5.7	23.5%	8.2%	15.4%	2.5%	3.98	3.91	+0.7
2033	25	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	40	169	40	14	4	100%	5.7	23.9%	8.0%	15.9%	2.5%	3.91	3.86	+0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	41	173	42	14	4	100%	5.9	24.1%	8.0%	16.1%	2.5%	3.86	3.83	+0.8
2035	27	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	40	169	41	14	4	100%	5.7	24.1%	8.1%	16.0%	2.6%	3.87	3.87	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	287	1210	279	102	31	100%	5.6	23.1%	8.4%	14.6%	2.6%	4.07	3.63	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	195	71	22	100%	5.6	23.1%	8.4%	14.6%	2.6%	4.07	3.63	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		26	13	72	310	50	36	0	50%	2.8	16.2%	11.7%	4.5%	0.0%	4.35	3.21	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	36	200	857	139	100	0	50%	2.8	16.2%	11.7%	4.5%	0.0%	4.35	3.21	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL Athletics · 51 IPFIP 2.05 → 2.89 (+0.84)K% 23.0% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.680	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.04%	—	×1.250	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.05 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Athletics · 22 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.91 (+1.15)K% 25.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.77%	—	×0.680	17.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.43%	—	×1.250	18.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.868	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricardo Osorio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	19.6%	10.3%	2.8%	—	4.33	21.4%	12.1%	125	-0.33	—	—	—
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	90
Gilberto Batista R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP-	4.00	16.9%	11.4%	1.6%	.308	5.86	14.7%	4.9%	172	+1.86	3.63	250	85
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	85
Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	18.7%	11.2%	2.7%	.333	3.98	16.9%	5.8%	61	-0.44	3.98	178	84
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	84
Adolfo Oviedo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP-	3.74	17.2%	8.1%	1.9%	.272	4.90	12.6%	5.2%	124	+1.16	3.74	235	84
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	84
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	84
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	83
Xiomer Guacache R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	16.3%	10.5%	2.5%	.255	5.09	13.0%	0.3%	120	+0.67	4.42	186	82
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	82
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	82
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	507	82
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	82
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.39	24.3%	10.6%	249	-0.81	2.95	349	82
Wuilliams Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP-	4.21	17.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.363	5.79	21.2%	5.9%	70	+1.58	3.69	135	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	81
Andy Basora R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP-	3.67	16.5%	11.0%	1.0%	.278	3.98	15.6%	4.9%	92	+0.31	2.73	185	81
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	41	22.6%	8.7%	1.03	4.18
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Neftalí Feliz ('21)	2.0	49	22.9%	9.7%	1.05	3.55
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Ken Dayley ('82-'93, 4 WAR*)	2.9	64	21.8%*	9.1%*	0.97*	4.10*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*