Andy Basora — OGILVIE

Andy Basora P Columbia Fireflies

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%18.5%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL KC Stewart	13	0	27	126	24	13	0	0%	2.1	13.0%	12.9%	0.1%	0.0%	3.33	3.64	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL KC Stewart	13	0	27	126	24	13	0	0%	2.1	19.0%	10.3%	8.7%	0.0%	3.33	2.77	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	12	4	32	142	27	10	0	33%	2.7	12.9%	8.8%	4.1%	0.0%	1.97	3.12	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	12	4	32	142	27	10	0	33%	2.7	12.9%	8.8%	4.1%	0.0%	1.97	3.12	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	12	4	32	142	27	10	0	33%	2.7	19.0%	7.0%	12.0%	0.0%	1.97	2.35	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	8	34	136	33	12	1	73%	3.1	16.5%	11.0%	5.5%	1.0%	3.44	3.67	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	8	34	136	33	12	1	73%	3.1	16.5%	11.0%	5.5%	1.0%	3.44	3.67	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	8	34	136	33	12	1	73%	3.1	24.3%	8.8%	15.4%	0.7%	3.44	2.60	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	14	0	33	147	26	6	0	0%	2.4	12.0%	5.1%	6.9%	0.0%	4.05	2.73	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	14	0	33	147	26	6	0	0%	2.4	12.0%	5.1%	6.9%	0.0%	4.05	2.73	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	14	0	33	147	26	6	0	0%	2.4	17.7%	4.1%	13.6%	0.0%	4.05	2.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	45	0	59	272	65	32	5	0%	1.3	17.7%	13.9%	3.8%	2.4%	4.73	4.68	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	45	0	59	272	65	32	5	0%	1.3	17.7%	13.9%	3.8%	2.4%	4.73	4.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	KC	45	0	59	272	65	32	5	0%	1.3	23.9%	11.8%	12.1%	1.8%	4.73	3.58	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	KC	58	0	61	256	52	19	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	2.8%	4.29	4.22	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	60	0	63	266	57	19	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	2.8%	4.17	4.09	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	KC	62	0	65	273	60	19	7	0%	1.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.7%	4.08	4.01	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	KC	62	0	65	276	62	19	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	2.7%	4.01	3.96	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	KC	62	0	65	276	62	19	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	6.9%	15.7%	2.7%	3.97	3.94	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	272	61	19	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	6.9%	15.6%	2.8%	3.98	3.98	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	KC	29	0	30	127	26	9	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	2.6%	4.18	4.11	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	44	0	46	194	41	14	5	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	2.5%	4.06	3.98	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	KC	51	0	54	228	50	16	6	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.5%	3.97	3.90	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	KC	55	0	58	245	55	17	6	0%	1.1	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	2.5%	3.90	3.85	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	KC	57	0	60	253	57	17	6	0%	1.1	22.6%	6.9%	15.7%	2.5%	3.86	3.83	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	KC	57	0	60	253	57	18	7	0%	1.1	22.6%	6.9%	15.6%	2.6%	3.87	3.87	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		292	0	306	1294	285	90	33	0%	1.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.5%	3.95	3.52	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	59	22	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.5%	3.95	3.52	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		95	12	185	823	123	89	8	13%	2.0	14.9%	10.8%	4.1%	1.0%	3.69	3.74	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	13	200	888	133	96	9	13%	2.0	14.9%	10.8%	4.1%	1.0%	3.69	3.74	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andy Basora (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	18.5%	7.5%	2.8%	—	4.10	21.2%	14.1%	188	-0.32	—	—	—
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	90
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	90
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	89
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	88
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	88
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Fraynel Nova R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SU	3.38	17.2%	6.6%	1.6%	.308	4.38	14.3%	3.3%	86	+1.00	3.38	129	88
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	88
Ismael Cabrera R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	21	SU	3.56	19.0%	7.4%	2.1%	.250	5.19	17.4%	6.6%	117	+1.63	3.56	133	87
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	87
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	87
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	86
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	86
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	86
Juan Jimenez R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	21	SU	3.45	18.2%	7.2%	1.8%	.327	5.51	17.2%	2.6%	80	+2.06	3.45	115	86
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	86
David Davalillo R 2023 · 3.33 FIP	20	SW	3.33	18.6%	6.8%	1.7%	.292	3.31	20.7%	12.3%	305	-0.02	2.96	322	86
Josh Sborz R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	21	SU	3.92	18.1%	6.8%	2.7%	.314	3.74	18.2%	8.4%	295	-0.18	2.15	569	86
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	86
Andrés Núñez R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	22	SU	3.42	18.0%	8.6%	1.4%	.269	3.43	22.5%	15.3%	128	+0.01	2.73	259	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	58	21.7%	7.0%	1.07	4.10
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97