Joangel Gonzalez

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKARI	15	1	34	4.98	2.75	26.8%	9.4%	—	K 18.3% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.23
2025	21	MIX2 levels	41	0	55	5.69	3.06	23.1%	10.0%	—	K 17.5% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.93
2026	22	A+ARI	34	0	61	7.08	5.31	24.7%	17.0%	—	K 19.0% · BB 19.6% · FIP 6.26
2027PROJ	23	MLBARI	—	—	0	5.61	5.61	19.3%	16.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBARI	17	0	18	5.32	5.21	20.5%	14.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBARI	24	0	25	5.08	4.97	21.1%	12.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJames Acuna (age 23) · Morgan McSweeney (age 23) · Hayden Snelsire (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%19.3%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%3.1%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	7	4	11	47	11	2	2	57%	1.6	23.4%	4.3%	19.1%	4.3%	4.91	4.00	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	7	4	11	47	11	2	2	57%	1.6	23.4%	4.3%	19.1%	4.3%	4.91	4.01	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	15	1	34	149	40	14	2	7%	2.3	18.3%	11.7%	6.5%	2.1%	4.98	4.23	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	15	1	34	149	40	14	2	7%	2.3	18.3%	11.7%	6.5%	2.1%	4.98	4.23	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	15	1	34	149	40	14	2	7%	2.3	26.8%	9.4%	17.4%	1.3%	4.98	2.75	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	55	251	58	25	3	0%	1.3	17.5%	11.6%	6.0%	1.5%	5.69	3.93	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	55	251	58	25	3	0%	1.3	17.5%	11.6%	6.0%	1.5%	5.69	3.93	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	55	251	58	25	3	0%	1.3	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	1.2%	5.69	3.06	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	61	300	74	51	10	0%	1.8	19.0%	19.6%	-0.6%	4.2%	7.08	6.26	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	61	300	74	51	10	0%	1.8	19.0%	19.6%	-0.6%	4.2%	7.08	6.26	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	61	300	74	51	10	0%	1.8	24.7%	17.0%	7.7%	3.3%	7.08	5.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.3%	16.2%	3.1%	3.1%	5.61	5.61	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	39	0	41	175	36	24	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	14.0%	6.5%	3.1%	5.32	5.21	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	35	0	37	156	33	20	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.6%	8.6%	3.1%	5.08	4.97	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	17	0	18	76	16	11	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	14.0%	6.5%	3.1%	5.32	5.21	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	24	0	25	106	22	13	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.6%	8.6%	3.1%	5.08	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	179	37	24	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.2%	7.7%	3.1%	5.18	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	113	24	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.2%	7.7%	3.1%	5.18	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		97	5	162	747	139	107	22	5%	1.7	18.6%	14.3%	4.3%	2.9%	6.01	4.93	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	6	200	924	172	133	27	5%	1.7	18.6%	14.3%	4.3%	2.9%	6.01	4.93	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 61 IPFIP 5.00 → 6.26 (+1.26)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.67%	—	×0.770	18.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.00%	—	×1.150	19.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.00 → 6.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 37 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.34 (+0.87)K% 21.1% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.770	16.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.36%	—	×1.150	10.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷0.968	×1.250	2.27%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 19 IPFIP 2.20 → 3.06 (+0.86)K% 27.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.50%	—	×0.740	20.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.25%	—	×1.180	13.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.283	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL D-backs · 34 IPFIP 2.76 → 4.23 (+1.47)K% 26.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.85%	—	×0.680	18.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.40%	—	×1.250	11.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷0.875	×1.400	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Arizona Black · 11 IPFIP 4.00 → 5.58 (+1.58)K% 23.4% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.40%	—	×0.680	15.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.26%	—	×1.250	5.32%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷1.039	×1.400	5.73%

Result: FIP 4.00 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joangel Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	19.3%	16.2%	3.1%	—	5.10	20.8%	7.5%	78	-0.51	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	93
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	91
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	90
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	89
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	89
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	89
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	89
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	89
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	88
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	88
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	88
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	87
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	87
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	86
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	86
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	20.3%	14.3%	1.20	5.34
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*