Joangel Gonzalez
P
Hillsboro Hops
+0.3
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%11.4%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 7 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 15 | 1 | 34 | 149 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 4.98 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 41 | 0 | 55 | 251 | 58 | 25 | 3 | 17.5% | 11.6% | 1.5% | 5.69 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 3 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | 17.18 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ARI | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 52 | 230 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 5.37 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 22.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 52 | 19 | 6 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 5 | 104 | 473 | 87 | 55 | 11 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 5.78 | 4.32 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 10 | 200 | 907 | 167 | 105 | 21 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 5.78 | 4.32 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joangel Gonzalez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.20 | 22.9% | 13.9% | 154 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 94 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 93 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 93 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 93 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 92 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 91 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 89 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 89 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 89 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.64 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .246 | 3.81 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 169 | +0.17 | 2.90 | 215 | 89 |
| Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 88 |
| Brandon Beckel R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.74 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.34 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 76 | +0.60 | 3.74 | 123 | 88 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 88 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.79 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 103 | -0.00 | 4.73 | 149 | 88 |
| Kyle Marman R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 88 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 88 |
| Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.13 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .265 | 4.57 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 179 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 214 | 88 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 88 |
| Joey Stock R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.00 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 95 | +1.52 | 3.48 | 121 | 87 |
| Stephen Jones R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $6M | $13M | +$6M | ||