Xiomer Guacache — OGILVIE

Xiomer Guacache P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%18.1%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	11	3	25	128	22	15	4	27%	2.3	11.7%	14.6%	-3.0%	4.4%	8.88	6.38	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	11	3	25	128	22	15	4	27%	2.3	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	3.1%	8.88	5.19	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	12	8	41	167	40	14	3	67%	3.4	16.3%	10.5%	5.8%	2.5%	2.41	4.42	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	12	8	41	167	40	14	3	67%	3.4	16.3%	10.5%	5.8%	2.5%	2.41	4.42	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	12	8	41	167	40	14	3	67%	3.4	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	1.8%	2.41	3.12	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	10	39	164	34	8	4	91%	3.5	14.1%	6.1%	8.0%	3.4%	6.28	4.57	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	10	39	164	34	8	4	91%	3.5	14.1%	6.1%	8.0%	3.4%	6.28	4.57	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	11	10	39	164	34	8	4	91%	3.5	20.7%	4.9%	15.9%	2.4%	6.28	3.31	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	16	0	33	147	25	18	2	0%	2.1	11.6%	15.3%	-3.7%	2.2%	3.82	5.25	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	16	0	33	147	25	18	2	0%	2.1	11.6%	15.3%	-3.7%	2.2%	3.82	5.25	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	16	0	33	147	25	18	2	0%	2.1	17.0%	12.2%	4.8%	1.4%	3.82	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	30	0	48	215	39	29	4	0%	1.6	13.0%	16.1%	-3.1%	2.5%	4.69	5.40	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	30	0	48	215	39	29	4	0%	1.6	13.0%	16.1%	-3.1%	2.5%	4.69	5.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	DET	11	0	19	79	15	6	1	0%	1.7	19.0%	7.6%	11.4%	1.3%	3.86	3.15	—
2026	22	A RAW	DET	19	0	29	136	24	23	3	0%	1.5	17.6%	16.9%	0.7%	2.2%	5.22	4.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	DET	46	0	49	206	41	21	6	0%	1.1	19.8%	10.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.83	4.74	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	48	0	50	211	44	21	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	48	0	51	214	45	20	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.4%	11.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.46	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	48	0	51	214	46	20	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.9%	4.47	4.44	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	DET	23	0	24	101	20	11	3	0%	1.0	19.8%	10.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.83	4.74	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	33	0	35	148	31	14	4	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	39	0	41	173	37	16	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.4%	11.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	42	0	44	186	40	17	5	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.9%	4.47	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		137	0	144	609	128	59	18	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.59	4.14	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	82	25	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.59	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		80	21	186	821	110	103	24	26%	2.3	13.4%	12.6%	0.8%	2.9%	4.94	5.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	23	200	883	119	111	26	26%	2.3	13.4%	12.6%	0.8%	2.9%	4.94	5.16	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xiomer Guacache (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	18.1%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.58	20.6%	10.8%	149	-0.45	—	—	—
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	89
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	88
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	88
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	87
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	87
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	86
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	86
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	85
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	85
Logan Lombana R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	16.8%	10.9%	1.8%	.316	4.02	15.4%	8.7%	97	-0.02	3.80	155	84
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	84
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	84
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	84
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	84
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	84
Gray Fenter R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	22	SU	4.41	18.4%	12.3%	2.4%	.367	4.28	22.2%	8.0%	172	-0.13	2.83	330	83
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	83
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.22	528	83
Brooks Wilson R 2018 · 5.17 FIP	22	SU	5.17	15.8%	10.3%	3.8%	.229	3.11	21.3%	12.5%	131	-2.06	2.92	194	83
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	44	20.6%	9.9%	1.13	4.66
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99