Xiomer Guacache

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKDSL Tigers 2	11	10	39	6.28	3.31	20.7%	4.9%	—	K 14.1% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.57
2025	21	ROKDET	16	0	33	3.82	4.01	17.0%	12.2%	—	K 11.6% · BB 15.3% · FIP 5.25
2026	22	MIX2 levels	30	0	48	4.69	4.37	18.1%	13.5%	—	K 13.0% · BB 16.1% · FIP 5.40
2027PROJ	23	MLBDET	—	—	0	5.51	5.51	16.6%	14.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBDET	13	0	14	5.23	5.12	18.5%	12.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJunior Rincon (age 23) · Sam Ryan (age 22) · Hayden Snelsire (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%16.6%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%2.3%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	11	3	25	128	22	15	4	27%	2.3	11.7%	14.6%	-3.0%	4.4%	8.88	6.38	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	11	3	25	128	22	15	4	27%	2.3	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	3.1%	8.88	5.19	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	12	8	41	167	40	14	3	67%	3.4	16.3%	10.5%	5.8%	2.5%	2.41	4.42	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	12	8	41	167	40	14	3	67%	3.4	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	1.8%	2.41	3.12	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	10	39	164	34	8	4	91%	3.5	14.1%	6.1%	8.0%	3.4%	6.28	4.57	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	10	39	164	34	8	4	91%	3.5	14.1%	6.1%	8.0%	3.4%	6.28	4.57	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	11	10	39	164	34	8	4	91%	3.5	20.7%	4.9%	15.9%	2.4%	6.28	3.31	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	16	0	33	147	25	18	2	0%	2.1	11.6%	15.3%	-3.7%	2.2%	3.82	5.25	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	16	0	33	147	25	18	2	0%	2.1	11.6%	15.3%	-3.7%	2.2%	3.82	5.25	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	16	0	33	147	25	18	2	0%	2.1	17.0%	12.2%	4.8%	1.4%	3.82	4.01	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	48	215	39	29	4	0%	1.6	13.0%	16.1%	-3.1%	2.5%	4.69	5.40	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	48	215	39	29	4	0%	1.6	13.0%	16.1%	-3.1%	2.5%	4.69	5.40	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	48	215	39	29	4	0%	1.6	18.1%	13.5%	4.7%	1.9%	4.69	4.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.6%	14.3%	2.3%	3.0%	5.51	5.51	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	31	0	32	136	25	17	4	0%	1.0	18.5%	12.6%	5.9%	2.9%	5.23	5.12	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	13	0	14	59	11	7	2	0%	1.1	18.5%	12.6%	5.9%	2.9%	5.23	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	58	11	7	2	0%	1.1	18.5%	12.6%	5.9%	2.9%	5.23	4.74	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	102	29	0%	1.1	18.5%	12.6%	5.9%	2.9%	5.23	4.74	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		80	21	186	821	110	103	24	26%	2.3	13.4%	12.6%	0.8%	2.9%	4.94	5.16	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	23	200	883	119	111	26	26%	2.3	13.4%	12.6%	0.8%	2.9%	4.94	5.16	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 29 IPFIP 4.96 → 6.10 (+1.14)K% 17.6% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.740	13.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.91%	—	×1.180	19.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.87%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.96 → 6.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Tigers · 19 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.18 (+1.03)K% 19.0% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.99%	—	×0.680	12.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.59%	—	×1.250	9.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.77%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Tigers · 33 IPFIP 3.96 → 5.25 (+1.29)K% 17.0% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.01%	—	×0.680	11.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.24%	—	×1.250	15.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷0.880	×1.400	2.16%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Tigers 2 · 39 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.57 (+1.26)K% 20.7% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.73%	—	×0.680	14.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×1.250	6.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.995	×1.400	3.43%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Tigers 2 · 41 IPFIP 3.13 → 4.42 (+1.29)K% 24.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.95%	—	×0.680	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.38%	—	×1.250	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷1.009	×1.400	2.49%

Result: FIP 3.13 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Tigers 1 · 25 IPFIP 4.85 → 6.38 (+1.53)K% 17.2% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.19%	—	×0.680	11.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.72%	—	×1.250	14.65%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.996	×1.400	4.39%

Result: FIP 4.85 → 6.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xiomer Guacache (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	16.6%	14.3%	3.0%	—	5.12	18.5%	5.9%	32	-0.39	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	90
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	87
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	86
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	84
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	84
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	83
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.17	528	83
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	82
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	82
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	82
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	81
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	81
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	81
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	81
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	81
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	81
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	80
Ian Villers R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.311	4.23	15.6%	5.2%	59	-0.32	4.23	107	80
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	17.7%	13.3%	1.14	5.35
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*