Adolfo Oviedo — OGILVIE

Adolfo Oviedo P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%13.1%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%5.4%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	12	10	35	162	31	14	2	83%	2.9	13.0%	10.8%	2.2%	1.6%	4.33	4.22	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	12	10	35	162	31	14	2	83%	2.9	19.1%	8.6%	10.5%	1.2%	4.33	3.27	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	9	7	35	139	31	27	1	78%	3.9	15.2%	24.3%	-9.1%	1.0%	2.60	5.47	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	9	7	35	139	31	27	1	78%	3.9	15.2%	24.3%	-9.1%	1.0%	2.60	5.47	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	9	7	35	139	31	27	1	78%	3.9	22.3%	19.4%	2.9%	0.7%	2.60	4.02	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	6	41	170	43	11	2	50%	3.4	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	1.9%	1.96	3.74	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	6	41	170	43	11	2	50%	3.4	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	1.9%	1.96	3.74	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	12	6	41	170	43	11	2	50%	3.4	25.3%	6.5%	18.8%	1.2%	1.96	2.45	—
2025	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	28	0	54	235	44	10	8	0%	1.9	13.9%	5.0%	8.8%	4.7%	5.53	5.17	—
2025	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	28	0	54	235	44	10	8	0%	1.9	13.9%	5.0%	8.8%	4.7%	5.53	5.17	—
2025	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	28	0	54	235	44	10	8	0%	1.9	18.7%	4.3%	14.5%	3.4%	5.53	3.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	39	0	70	298	46	24	6	0%	1.8	11.6%	9.3%	2.3%	2.6%	2.69	4.70	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	39	0	70	298	46	24	6	0%	1.8	11.6%	9.3%	2.3%	2.6%	2.69	4.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	PIT	19	0	36	141	24	7	2	0%	1.9	17.0%	5.0%	12.1%	1.4%	1.49	3.07	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	PIT	20	0	34	157	22	17	4	0%	1.7	14.0%	10.8%	3.2%	2.5%	3.97	4.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PIT	69	0	72	305	48	23	9	0%	1.0	15.7%	7.4%	8.3%	3.1%	4.88	4.79	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	PIT	71	0	75	317	55	23	10	0%	1.1	17.3%	7.3%	10.1%	3.0%	4.70	4.60	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	PIT	73	0	77	325	59	23	10	0%	1.1	18.3%	7.1%	11.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.49	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	PIT	74	0	78	329	62	23	10	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.1%	11.7%	3.0%	4.49	4.43	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	PIT	74	0	78	329	62	23	10	0%	1.1	19.0%	7.0%	11.9%	3.0%	4.44	4.41	+0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	PIT	73	0	77	324	61	23	10	0%	1.1	18.9%	7.1%	11.9%	3.0%	4.45	4.45	+0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	PIT	71	0	74	314	59	23	10	0%	1.0	18.8%	7.2%	11.6%	3.1%	4.50	4.53	+0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	PIT	68	0	71	300	56	22	10	0%	1.0	18.6%	7.5%	11.1%	3.3%	4.60	4.66	-0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	PIT	64	0	67	282	51	22	10	0%	1.0	18.2%	7.8%	10.5%	3.5%	4.74	4.84	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	PIT	34	0	36	152	24	11	5	0%	1.1	15.7%	7.4%	8.3%	3.1%	4.88	4.79	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	PIT	52	0	55	232	40	17	7	0%	1.1	17.3%	7.3%	10.1%	3.0%	4.70	4.60	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	PIT	61	0	64	270	49	19	8	0%	1.0	18.3%	7.1%	11.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.49	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	PIT	66	0	69	291	55	21	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	7.1%	11.7%	3.0%	4.49	4.43	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	PIT	68	0	71	300	57	21	9	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.0%	11.9%	3.0%	4.44	4.41	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	PIT	68	0	71	300	57	21	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.1%	11.9%	3.0%	4.45	4.45	+0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	PIT	67	0	70	296	56	21	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	7.2%	11.6%	3.1%	4.50	4.53	+0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	PIT	65	0	68	287	53	21	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	7.5%	11.1%	3.3%	4.60	4.66	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	PIT	60	0	63	266	49	21	9	0%	1.1	18.2%	7.8%	10.5%	3.5%	4.74	4.84	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		539	0	566	2388	438	173	75	0%	1.0	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.57	4.18	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	61	27	0%	1.1	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.57	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		100	23	235	1004	139	105	26	23%	2.4	13.8%	10.4%	3.4%	2.6%	3.44	4.68	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	20	200	853	118	89	22	23%	2.4	13.8%	10.4%	3.4%	2.6%	3.44	4.68	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adolfo Oviedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	13.1%	7.7%	3.2%	—	4.62	17.1%	9.9%	224	-0.47	—	—	—
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	89
Bryan Bonnell R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	21	SU	4.55	8.8%	6.1%	2.6%	.298	4.63	17.2%	9.1%	170	+0.08	3.55	333	88
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	87
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	87
Joseilyn Gonzalez R 2022 · 4.98 FIP	20	SU	4.98	14.5%	8.5%	3.7%	.321	5.20	14.5%	-3.2%	107	+0.22	4.98	168	87
Luis Payan R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	21	SU	3.99	13.8%	6.7%	2.2%	.360	4.08	16.0%	9.8%	79	+0.09	3.99	134	87
Frainger Aranguren R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	21	SU	4.06	14.6%	8.3%	2.1%	.305	4.81	13.1%	-1.9%	70	+0.75	3.20	234	86
Nolan Kingham R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SW	4.70	12.1%	8.7%	2.8%	.338	4.22	13.1%	7.0%	260	-0.48	3.93	533	86
Mariano Rivera R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	12.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.290	4.12	13.5%	5.8%	66	-0.48	3.64	135	86
Xavier Altamirano R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	21	SU	5.11	10.4%	6.7%	3.7%	.252	4.15	14.8%	7.6%	284	-0.96	3.91	451	86
Julio Rosario R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	21	SW	5.15	11.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.244	4.36	18.8%	6.7%	94	-0.79	3.27	122	86
Matt Hardy R 2017 · 5.36 FIP	22	SU	5.36	13.7%	7.9%	4.4%	.339	3.70	18.2%	10.8%	129	-1.66	3.18	242	85
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	85
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	85
Fabian Anguamea R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	21	SU	4.77	14.7%	5.4%	4.1%	.284	4.38	17.4%	3.3%	87	-0.39	3.99	164	84
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	84
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	84
Erick Casillas R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	20	SW	4.24	13.7%	9.0%	2.1%	.255	4.30	20.2%	13.3%	44	+0.06	4.24	142	84
Sucre Valdez R 2015 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	13.6%	10.4%	4.7%	.280	3.48	18.3%	12.1%	77	-2.35	2.82	102	84
Zac Reininger R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	22	SU	4.92	11.8%	9.8%	2.9%	.286	3.34	21.1%	13.6%	125	-1.58	2.58	259	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	71	17.9%	7.3%	1.21	4.62
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58