Adolfo Oviedo
P
Bradenton Marauders
+0.1
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 165 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2031
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%12.6%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2031
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL PIT Gold | 12 | 10 | 35 | 162 | 31 | 14 | 2 | 13.0% | 10.8% | 1.5% | 4.33 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Pirates Gold | 9 | 7 | 35 | 139 | 31 | 27 | 1 | 15.2% | 24.3% | 1.1% | 2.60 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Pirates Gold | 12 | 6 | 41 | 170 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 1.96 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 28 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 44 | 10 | 8 | 13.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.53 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 4 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | PIT | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 20.9% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 55 | 229 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | PIT | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 47 | 17 | 7 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 51 | 17 | 7 | 22.9% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 53 | 17 | 7 | 23.5% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 55 | 17 | 7 | 23.8% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 55 | 17 | 7 | 24.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 55 | 17 | 7 | 24.1% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 54 | 17 | 7 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 52 | 17 | 7 | 23.9% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 50 | 17 | 7 | 23.7% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 48 | 16 | 7 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 23 | 172 | 732 | 108 | 79 | 19 | 14.7% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 3.62 | 4.64 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 27 | 200 | 853 | 126 | 92 | 22 | 14.7% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 3.62 | 4.64 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adolfo Oviedo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 20.9% | 8.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.22 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 157 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.34 | 4.09 | 215 | 93 |
| Reece Karalus R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.79 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 103 | -0.00 | 4.73 | 149 | 93 |
| Geno Encina R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.22 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .325 | 6.98 | 12.0% | 2.3% | 76 | +2.76 | 4.22 | 200 | 91 |
| Logan Lombana R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.63 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .315 | 4.01 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 123 | -0.62 | 3.80 | 155 | 90 |
| Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 89 |
| Matt Pidich R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.09 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.33 | 4.07 | 196 | 89 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 89 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 89 |
| Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.47 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .343 | 6.32 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 197 | +1.85 | 3.27 | 243 | 89 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 88 |
| Josnier Parra R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.53 | 15.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | .319 | 4.37 | 9.8% | 1.9% | 70 | -0.16 | 3.79 | 102 | 88 |
| Logan Gragg R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.12 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .343 | 5.21 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.09 | 4.12 | 412 | 88 |
| Jake Elliott R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .353 | 3.79 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 202 | -0.03 | 2.87 | 354 | 88 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.54 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.94 | 3.60 | 138 | 87 |
| Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.79 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .294 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 111 | +0.23 | 2.94 | 206 | 87 |
| Boby Johnson R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.34 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .371 | 4.22 | 18.0% | 8.2% | 100 | -0.12 | 3.80 | 145 | 87 |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.83 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.79 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +0.96 | 3.83 | 206 | 87 |
| Huei-Sheng Lin R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.59 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .360 | 5.61 | 16.1% | 3.7% | 88 | +1.02 | 4.59 | 120 | 87 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 87 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$8M | ||