Adolfo Oviedo

P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Pirates G…	12	6	41	1.96	2.45	25.3%	6.5%	—	K 17.2% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.74
2025	20	APIT	28	0	54	5.53	3.96	18.7%	4.3%	—	K 13.9% · BB 5.0% · FIP 5.17
2026	21	MIX2 levels	39	0	70	2.69	3.92	15.4%	8.1%	—	K 11.6% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	22	MLBPIT	—	—	0	5.33	5.33	10.7%	8.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBPIT	25	0	26	5.10	5.01	13.8%	8.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBPIT	35	0	37	4.91	4.81	15.7%	8.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control60Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsRogelio Martinez (age 23) · Kevin Johnson (age 24) · Kelvis Valerio (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%10.7%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	12	10	35	162	31	14	2	83%	2.9	13.0%	10.8%	2.2%	1.6%	4.33	4.22	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	12	10	35	162	31	14	2	83%	2.9	19.1%	8.6%	10.5%	1.2%	4.33	3.27	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	9	7	35	139	31	27	1	78%	3.9	15.2%	24.3%	-9.1%	1.0%	2.60	5.47	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	9	7	35	139	31	27	1	78%	3.9	22.3%	19.4%	2.9%	0.7%	2.60	4.02	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	6	41	170	43	11	2	50%	3.4	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	1.9%	1.96	3.74	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	6	41	170	43	11	2	50%	3.4	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	1.9%	1.96	3.74	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	12	6	41	170	43	11	2	50%	3.4	25.3%	6.5%	18.8%	1.2%	1.96	2.45	—
2025	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	28	0	54	235	44	10	8	0%	1.9	13.9%	5.0%	8.8%	4.7%	5.53	5.17	—
2025	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	28	0	54	235	44	10	8	0%	1.9	13.9%	5.0%	8.8%	4.7%	5.53	5.17	—
2025	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	28	0	54	235	44	10	8	0%	1.9	18.7%	4.3%	14.5%	3.4%	5.53	3.96	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	70	298	46	24	6	0%	1.8	11.6%	9.3%	2.3%	2.6%	2.69	4.70	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	70	298	46	24	6	0%	1.8	11.6%	9.3%	2.3%	2.6%	2.69	4.70	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	70	298	46	24	6	0%	1.8	15.4%	8.1%	7.4%	2.0%	2.69	3.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.7%	8.6%	2.1%	3.0%	5.33	5.33	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	PIT	50	0	52	222	31	18	7	0%	1.1	13.8%	8.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.10	5.01	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	PIT	50	0	52	222	35	18	7	0%	1.1	15.7%	8.2%	7.5%	3.0%	4.91	4.81	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	PIT	39	0	41	173	29	14	5	0%	1.1	16.8%	8.1%	8.7%	2.9%	4.78	4.70	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	PIT	39	0	41	171	30	14	5	0%	1.0	17.3%	8.1%	9.3%	2.9%	4.70	4.65	-0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	PIT	38	0	40	167	29	14	5	0%	1.0	17.3%	8.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.69	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	PIT	36	0	38	159	27	13	5	0%	1.0	17.2%	8.3%	8.9%	3.1%	4.75	4.78	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	PIT	34	0	35	149	25	13	5	0%	1.0	17.0%	8.5%	8.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.91	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	PIT	25	0	26	110	15	9	3	0%	1.0	13.8%	8.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.10	5.01	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	PIT	35	0	37	156	24	13	5	0%	1.1	15.7%	8.2%	7.5%	3.0%	4.91	4.81	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	PIT	31	0	33	139	23	11	4	0%	1.1	16.8%	8.1%	8.7%	2.9%	4.78	4.70	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	PIT	33	0	35	148	26	12	4	0%	1.1	17.3%	8.1%	9.3%	2.9%	4.70	4.65	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	PIT	34	0	36	152	26	12	5	0%	1.1	17.3%	8.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.69	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	PIT	33	0	35	148	25	12	5	0%	1.1	17.2%	8.3%	8.9%	3.1%	4.75	4.78	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	PIT	31	0	33	139	24	12	5	0%	1.1	17.0%	8.5%	8.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		223	0	234	990	164	81	30	0%	1.1	16.5%	8.2%	8.3%	3.0%	4.82	4.40	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	69	26	0%	1.1	16.5%	8.2%	8.3%	3.0%	4.82	4.40	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		100	23	235	1004	139	105	26	23%	2.4	13.8%	10.4%	3.4%	2.6%	3.44	4.68	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	20	200	853	118	89	22	23%	2.4	13.8%	10.4%	3.4%	2.6%	3.44	4.68	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 34 IPFIP 4.69 → 5.51 (+0.83)K% 14.0% → 10.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.01%	—	×0.770	10.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×1.150	12.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.18%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.69 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ABradenton Marauders · 36 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.79 (+0.72)K% 17.0% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.02%	—	×0.740	12.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.96%	—	×1.180	5.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.84%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ABradenton Marauders · 54 IPFIP 3.93 → 5.17 (+1.25)K% 18.7% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.72%	—	×0.740	13.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.26%	—	×1.180	5.02%
HR / BF /BF	3.40%	÷0.932	×1.300	4.75%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Pirates Gold · 41 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.74 (+1.31)K% 25.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.29%	—	×0.680	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.47%	—	×1.250	8.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷0.847	×1.400	1.95%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Pirates Gold · 35 IPFIP 4.07 → 5.47 (+1.39)K% 22.3% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.30%	—	×0.680	15.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.42%	—	×1.250	24.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷0.969	×1.400	1.04%

Result: FIP 4.07 → 5.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL PIT Gold · 35 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.22 (+0.97)K% 19.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.14%	—	×0.680	13.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.250	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.111	×1.400	1.56%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adolfo Oviedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	10.7%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.85	15.3%	7.1%	146	-0.48	—	—	—
Rogelio Martinez R 2015 · 5.25 FIP	23	SU	5.25	10.0%	9.7%	3.2%	.304	5.20	11.6%	4.4%	73	-0.05	5.20	152	89
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	87
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	86
Devin Burke R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	11.7%	7.0%	2.3%	.275	4.20	13.7%	8.8%	87	-0.07	4.20	149	86
Nate Adcock R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	23	SU	4.17	13.6%	8.7%	2.0%	.289	4.39	14.9%	7.5%	35	+0.22	3.84	137	86
Chad Jenkins R 2012 · 5.06 FIP	24	SW	5.06	11.8%	7.4%	3.7%	.257	3.56	12.8%	7.6%	159	-1.50	3.26	220	85
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	84
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	84
Juan Perez R 2017 · 4.52 FIP	22	SW	4.52	10.8%	10.8%	1.8%	.230	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	113	84
Mariano Rivera R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	12.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.290	4.12	13.5%	5.8%	66	-0.48	3.64	135	84
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	84
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	84
Blake Bass R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	23	SU	4.17	11.4%	6.4%	2.2%	.321	3.47	16.8%	6.6%	108	-0.70	3.18	223	84
Ignacio Marrujo R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SW	4.32	13.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.220	6.08	8.7%	-1.0%	87	+1.76	4.32	150	83
Daniel Concepcion R 2016 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	13.0%	10.6%	4.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	110	83
Raul Carrillo R 2015 · 5.26 FIP	23	SW	5.26	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	.364	4.56	10.8%	1.4%	169	-0.70	4.40	348	83
Erick Heredia R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	22	SU	4.38	10.8%	6.1%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	117	83
Jaime Lugo R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	23	SU	4.24	13.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.305	3.89	12.4%	3.6%	162	-0.35	3.69	287	83
Zac Reininger R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	22	SU	4.92	11.8%	9.8%	2.9%	.286	3.34	21.1%	13.6%	125	-1.58	2.58	259	82
Anthony Bass R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	23	SU	4.17	12.1%	10.1%	1.5%	.252	4.24	16.4%	8.4%	166	+0.07	2.93	647	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	44	15.4%	8.3%	1.17	4.91
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Matt Whiteside ('05)	2.0	58	14.5%	8.8%	1.15	5.23
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Dave Tomlin ('72-'86, -2 WAR*)	2.6	64	18.0%*	8.6%*	0.87*	4.57*