Alberto Arias — OGILVIE

Alberto Arias P DSL Orioles Black

Age 18 LHP 6'2" / 198 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%22.8%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	1	0	3	9	3	0	0	0%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	1	0	3	9	3	0	0	0%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	1	0	3	9	3	0	0	0%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	6	33	141	33	16	0	55%	3.0	15.9%	14.2%	1.7%	0.0%	2.73	3.55	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	6	33	141	33	16	0	55%	3.0	15.9%	14.2%	1.7%	0.0%	2.73	3.55	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	BAL	11	6	33	141	33	16	0	55%	3.0	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	0.0%	2.73	2.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BAL	6	6	34	143	33	14	4	100%	5.6	23.2%	10.1%	13.1%	2.9%	4.46	4.40	+0.2
2027	19	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	17	72	17	7	2	100%	5.7	23.2%	10.1%	13.1%	2.9%	4.46	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	70	16	7	2	100%	5.6	23.2%	10.1%	13.1%	2.9%	4.46	4.02	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	192	84	24	100%	5.9	23.2%	10.1%	13.1%	2.9%	4.46	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		12	6	36	150	25	20	0	50%	3.0	17.0%	13.3%	3.6%	0.0%	2.50	3.36	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	33	200	833	141	111	0	50%	3.0	17.0%	13.3%	3.6%	0.0%	2.50	3.36	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alberto Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	22.8%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.40	23.2%	13.1%	34	-0.17	—	—	—
Juan Rojas L 2022 · 3.66 FIP	18	SP-	3.66	23.0%	7.6%	2.8%	.279	4.29	15.9%	2.4%	164	+0.63	2.74	282	82
James Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	18	SP-	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	487	82
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	79
Johan Simon L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	20	SP-	3.51	19.8%	10.2%	1.4%	.302	4.50	17.6%	1.1%	41	+0.99	3.45	177	79
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	77
Javier Chacon L 2022 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	22.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.295	4.63	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.98	4.56	202	77
Robinson Ortiz L 2018 · 3.85 FIP	18	SP-	3.85	21.0%	11.0%	2.1%	.312	5.36	15.2%	0.6%	98	+1.51	2.29	275	76
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	76
Taylor Hearn L 2016 · 3.99 FIP	21	SW	3.99	26.1%	10.6%	3.2%	.347	4.01	22.3%	11.7%	236	+0.02	3.72	572	76
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	75
Rigoberto Borbolla L 2019 · 3.86 FIP	17	SW	3.86	18.0%	11.7%	1.5%	.336	7.52	9.9%	-15.3%	14	+3.66	3.86	114	75
Frankeli Arias L 2022 · 3.87 FIP	19	SW	3.87	16.9%	7.5%	2.3%	.281	5.03	15.8%	3.5%	214	+1.16	3.87	298	75
Brayan Mendoza L 2022 · 5.29 FIP	18	SP-	5.29	17.9%	15.0%	3.3%	.273	3.89	17.1%	6.3%	221	-1.40	3.59	398	74
Michael Kennedy L 2023 · 3.50 FIP	18	SP-	3.50	21.9%	13.9%	0.9%	.250	4.61	18.1%	8.2%	223	+1.11	3.50	265	74
Jacob Lopez L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.53	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.13	3.49	534	73
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	73
Adam Macko L 2019 · 3.88 FIP	18	SW	3.88	22.4%	14.6%	1.5%	.353	3.64	27.2%	12.4%	72	-0.24	3.40	403	73
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	72
Jaylen Nowlin L 2022 · 3.45 FIP	21	SP-	3.45	26.8%	13.3%	1.7%	.352	4.98	19.1%	6.1%	254	+1.53	3.45	372	71
Miguel Pozo L 2021 · 3.73 FIP	19	SW	3.73	19.9%	15.2%	0.7%	.274	4.04	21.0%	5.8%	72	+0.31	3.54	110	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	23.0%	10.4%	1.14	4.50
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68