Brayan Mendoza — OGILVIE

Brayan Mendoza P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 LHP 6'0" / 155 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%14.9%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$7M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 2	12	12	42	177	37	18	3	100%	3.5	14.2%	12.7%	1.5%	2.0%	4.50	4.63	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 2	12	12	42	177	37	18	3	100%	3.5	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	1.7%	4.50	3.55	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	13	8	41	167	44	20	4	62%	3.1	17.9%	15.0%	2.9%	3.3%	3.98	5.29	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	13	8	41	167	44	20	4	62%	3.1	26.3%	12.0%	14.4%	2.4%	3.98	3.69	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	9	52	226	54	24	1	50%	2.9	16.4%	12.6%	3.9%	0.6%	3.61	3.61	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	9	52	226	54	24	1	50%	2.9	16.4%	12.6%	3.9%	0.6%	3.61	3.61	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	9	52	226	54	24	1	50%	2.9	23.9%	10.6%	13.3%	0.4%	3.61	2.66	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	101	415	109	25	8	79%	4.2	19.0%	7.6%	11.5%	2.1%	2.32	3.59	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	101	415	109	25	8	79%	4.2	19.0%	7.6%	11.5%	2.1%	2.32	3.59	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	101	415	109	25	8	79%	4.2	26.3%	6.0%	20.2%	1.9%	2.32	2.71	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	4	80	365	73	42	5	18%	3.6	15.4%	13.2%	2.2%	1.7%	5.17	4.41	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	4	80	365	73	42	5	18%	3.6	15.4%	13.2%	2.2%	1.7%	5.17	4.41	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	22	4	80	365	73	42	5	18%	3.6	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	1.4%	5.17	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	30	12	95	412	99	47	13	40%	3.2	18.5%	13.1%	5.4%	3.9%	5.89	5.36	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	30	12	95	412	99	47	13	40%	3.2	18.5%	13.1%	5.4%	3.9%	5.89	5.36	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIA	30	12	95	412	99	47	13	40%	3.2	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	3.2%	5.89	4.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	92	0	96	406	68	48	11	0%	1.0	16.8%	11.9%	4.9%	2.6%	5.08	5.00	-0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	94	0	99	416	74	47	11	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.2%	6.7%	2.6%	4.90	4.82	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	95	0	100	421	78	46	11	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.8%	7.6%	2.6%	4.79	4.73	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	95	0	100	421	79	45	11	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	2.6%	4.73	4.70	-0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	94	0	98	415	78	45	11	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.8%	7.9%	2.7%	4.73	4.73	-0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	91	0	95	403	75	44	11	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	2.8%	4.78	4.82	-0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	87	0	91	385	71	43	11	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.95	-0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	82	0	86	361	65	42	11	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.5%	6.5%	3.1%	5.03	5.13	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	46	0	48	203	34	24	5	0%	1.0	16.8%	11.9%	4.9%	2.5%	5.01	4.93	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	66	0	69	291	52	33	7	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.2%	6.7%	2.5%	4.83	4.75	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	77	0	81	342	63	37	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.8%	7.6%	2.5%	4.72	4.66	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	83	0	87	367	69	39	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	2.5%	4.66	4.63	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	85	0	89	376	70	41	10	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.8%	7.9%	2.5%	4.66	4.66	-0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	84	0	88	372	69	41	10	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	2.6%	4.70	4.74	-0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	81	0	85	359	66	40	10	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	2.8%	4.80	4.87	-0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	76	0	80	338	61	39	10	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.5%	6.5%	3.0%	4.94	5.04	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		596	0	626	2644	484	293	69	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	2.6%	4.77	4.39	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	94	22	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	2.6%	4.77	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		119	64	411	1762	304	210	41	54%	3.5	17.2%	11.9%	5.3%	2.4%	4.25	4.44	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	31	200	858	148	102	20	54%	3.5	17.2%	11.9%	5.3%	2.4%	4.25	4.44	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Mendoza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	14.9%	13.0%	2.6%	—	4.85	17.7%	6.4%	295	-0.46	—	—	—
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	86
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	85
Sam Clay L 2015 · 4.18 FIP	22	SW	4.18	15.9%	14.1%	1.1%	.330	3.69	17.9%	3.0%	232	-0.49	2.50	514	84
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	84
Luis De Paula L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	23	SW	4.35	14.8%	14.2%	1.3%	.285	5.37	16.4%	0.2%	47	+1.02	4.35	125	82
Alex Winkelman L 2016 · 4.44 FIP	22	SW	4.44	15.8%	14.7%	1.5%	.344	3.77	18.8%	6.5%	181	-0.67	3.40	246	82
Scott Squier L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	22	SW	5.28	12.2%	11.2%	3.3%	.362	4.06	13.9%	7.9%	234	-1.22	3.29	276	81
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	81
Rolando Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	12.8%	10.9%	2.2%	.286	3.80	16.2%	-0.1%	18	-0.79	3.53	113	81
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	81
Ryan Lawlor L 2016 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.1%	15.8%	1.4%	.264	2.42	25.5%	15.1%	119	-2.10	2.24	201	81
Austin Davis L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SW	4.83	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.259	2.97	23.3%	15.8%	151	-1.86	2.19	486	80
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	80
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	80
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	80
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	79
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	78
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	78
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	78
Maikel Sepulveda L 2017 · 4.78 FIP	20	SW	4.78	10.5%	11.5%	2.0%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	125	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	91	18.0%	11.3%	1.05	4.89
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48