Brayan Mendoza
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 22
LHP
6'0" / 155 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121130vR 139
ERA5.34
FIP5.34
K%14.9%
BB%13.3%
K-BB%1.6%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 177 | 37 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 14.2% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 4.50 | 4.49 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 177 | 37 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 1.7% | 4.50 | 3.55 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 13 | 8 | 41 | 167 | 44 | 20 | 4 | 62% | 3.1 | 17.9% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.98 | 5.26 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 13 | 8 | 41 | 167 | 44 | 20 | 4 | 62% | 3.1 | 26.3% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 2.4% | 3.98 | 3.69 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 9 | 52 | 226 | 54 | 24 | 1 | 50% | 2.9 | 16.4% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 3.61 | 3.59 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 9 | 52 | 226 | 54 | 24 | 1 | 50% | 2.9 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 0.4% | 3.61 | 2.66 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 19 | 101 | 415 | 109 | 25 | 8 | 79% | 4.2 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 2.1% | 2.32 | 3.58 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 19 | 101 | 415 | 109 | 25 | 8 | 79% | 4.2 | 26.3% | 6.0% | 20.2% | 1.9% | 2.32 | 2.71 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 22 | 4 | 80 | 365 | 73 | 42 | 5 | 18% | 3.6 | 15.4% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 5.17 | 4.40 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 22 | 4 | 80 | 365 | 73 | 42 | 5 | 18% | 3.6 | 20.0% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 1.4% | 5.17 | 3.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 20 | 5 | 55 | 239 | 61 | 34 | 7 | 25% | 2.8 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.37 | 5.52 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | 53 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 35 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.9% | 13.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 5.34 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.9% | 13.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 5.30 | 5.30 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 111 | 476 | 96 | 66 | 13 | — | — | 20.2% | 13.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 5.35 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.9% | 13.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 5.30 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 41 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 45 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 4.93 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 58 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 48 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 58 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 48 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 4.75 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 48 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 21 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 5.07 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 32 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.89 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 39 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.77 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 42 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 43 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 42 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 266 | 0 | 280 | 1180 | 219 | 134 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.39 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 96 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 109 | 57 | 371 | 1589 | 274 | 195 | 33 | 52% | 3.4 | 17.3% | 12.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 4.00 | 4.34 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 31 | 200 | 856 | 148 | 105 | 18 | 52% | 3.4 | 17.3% | 12.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 4.00 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brayan Mendoza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.34 | 14.9% | 13.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.87 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 178 | -0.47 | — | — | — |
| Estevan Gonzalez L 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 14.1% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .322 | 4.80 | 14.7% | 0.1% | 130 | +0.11 | 4.62 | 195 | 87 |
| Connor Oliver L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.29 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .314 | 5.52 | 19.2% | 3.4% | 121 | +1.23 | 4.29 | 200 | 86 |
| Riley Cooper L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .287 | 4.35 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 44 | +0.08 | 4.27 | 132 | 85 |
| Luis De Paula L 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.44 | 14.8% | 14.2% | 1.4% | .285 | 5.36 | 16.4% | 0.2% | 47 | +0.92 | 4.44 | 125 | 85 |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.84 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.18 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.66 | 3.78 | 252 | 83 |
| Alex Winkelman L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.37 | 15.8% | 14.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.74 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 181 | -0.63 | 3.37 | 246 | 83 |
| Scott Squier L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.89 | 12.2% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .362 | 4.13 | 13.9% | 7.9% | 234 | -0.76 | 3.30 | 276 | 83 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .278 | 5.53 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 65 | +1.18 | 4.35 | 128 | 83 |
| Tom Windle L 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.61 | 12.3% | 13.0% | 1.6% | .304 | 4.24 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 159 | -0.37 | 3.79 | 330 | 82 |
| Austin Davis L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.07 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .259 | 2.95 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 151 | -2.12 | 2.22 | 486 | 82 |
| Ryan Lawlor L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.36 | 16.1% | 15.8% | 1.1% | .264 | 2.43 | 25.5% | 15.1% | 119 | -1.93 | 2.24 | 201 | 80 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.77 | 16.9% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 179 | -0.10 | 4.57 | 242 | 80 |
| Victor Payano L 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.19 | 14.8% | 16.5% | 4.1% | .287 | 4.92 | 20.5% | 7.0% | 225 | -1.27 | 3.81 | 341 | 79 |
| Gabriel Noguera L 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 15.0% | 1.3% | .231 | 5.34 | 14.2% | 2.1% | 95 | +0.93 | 4.41 | 174 | 79 |
| Bryce Hubbart L 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.82 | 17.0% | 26.0% | 1.6% | .303 | 5.00 | 17.4% | 3.9% | 136 | -0.82 | 4.73 | 181 | 79 |
| Marino Santy L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.93 | 17.6% | 16.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.04 | 21.6% | 3.0% | 65 | -0.89 | 2.78 | 253 | 79 |
| Cameron Roegner L 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.16 | 11.1% | 12.1% | 0.9% | .273 | 3.90 | 15.1% | 6.5% | 278 | -0.26 | 3.65 | 319 | 78 |
| Nate Peterson L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 78 |
| Lane Ratliff L 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.27 | 12.0% | 12.8% | 4.7% | .344 | 3.29 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 80 | -2.98 | 2.85 | 109 | 78 |
| Parker Rigler L 2026 · 6.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.33 | 13.8% | 13.3% | 5.0% | .318 | 4.54 | 14.5% | 4.0% | 140 | -1.79 | 4.54 | 192 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 59 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 1.02 | 4.92 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |