Brayan Mendoza
P
Beloit Sky Carp
+0.2
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'0" / 155 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.9 · 2031
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.8%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%9.2%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2031
K†4555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 177 | 37 | 18 | 3 | 14.2% | 12.7% | 1.9% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 13 | 8 | 41 | 167 | 44 | 20 | 4 | 17.9% | 15.0% | 3.2% | 3.98 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 18 | 9 | 52 | 226 | 54 | 24 | 1 | 16.4% | 12.6% | 0.6% | 3.61 | 3.61 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 24 | 19 | 101 | 415 | 109 | 25 | 8 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 2.1% | 2.32 | 3.59 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 22 | 4 | 80 | 365 | 73 | 42 | 5 | 15.4% | 13.2% | 1.7% | 5.17 | 4.40 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 3 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.27 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 67 | 36 | 9 | 19.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 89 | 379 | 76 | 43 | 9 | 20.1% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 4.84 | 4.13 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 91 | 42 | 11 | 20.9% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 4.37 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 111 | 47 | 13 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.24 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 135 | 571 | 126 | 50 | 15 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.17 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 133 | 53 | 16 | 22.2% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.15 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 136 | 54 | 16 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.16 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 145 | 612 | 136 | 54 | 16 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 142 | 598 | 132 | 53 | 16 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.23 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 137 | 580 | 127 | 52 | 16 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +1.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 121 | 51 | 16 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 115 | 50 | 16 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 122 | 513 | 108 | 49 | 15 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 101 | 47 | 15 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 93 | 45 | 15 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 92 | 52 | 325 | 1390 | 236 | 163 | 25 | 17.0% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 3.85 | 4.13 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 32 | 200 | 856 | 145 | 100 | 15 | 17.0% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 3.85 | 4.13 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brayan Mendoza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 19.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.25 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 360 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .290 | 4.07 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.69 | 3.72 | 252 | 96 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.08 | 4.01 | 212 | 95 |
| Riley Cooper L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.27 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .287 | 4.70 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 32 | +0.43 | 4.27 | 120 | 93 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.60 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.38 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.22 | 4.21 | 170 | 92 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 91 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .324 | 3.56 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 150 | -1.63 | 3.30 | 240 | 90 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 90 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 89 |
| Sam Garcia L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 89 |
| Drew Dowd L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .280 | 3.14 | 24.9% | 16.0% | 55 | -1.25 | 3.14 | 166 | 89 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 88 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.85 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .301 | 3.73 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 378 | -1.12 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 88 |
| Ixan Henderson L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.76 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 1.4% | .280 | 3.27 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 132 | -0.49 | 3.27 | 236 | 88 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 88 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 88 |
| Joe Whitman L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.91 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .303 | 3.79 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 131 | -0.12 | 3.78 | 234 | 88 |
| Damon Jones L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 3.83 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 156 | -0.29 | 3.69 | 269 | 86 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.7% | .275 | 3.73 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 116 | -0.33 | 2.85 | 221 | 86 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.12 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .313 | 5.14 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 264 | +1.02 | 2.89 | 400 | 86 |
| Emmett Olson L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.86 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .290 | 4.58 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 35 | +0.72 | 3.86 | 137 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.7 | $17M | +$14M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.6 | $16M | +$13M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.4 | $15M | +$10M |
| Totals | $13M | $99M | +$86M | ||