Adam Macko
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.5%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%10.3%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 8 | 2 | 21 | 94 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 22.4% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 3.38 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 9 | 9 | 33 | 155 | 56 | 21 | 1 | 26.7% | 16.0% | 1.0% | 4.59 | 3.41 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 8 | 8 | 38 | 167 | 60 | 20 | 4 | 27.7% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 3.99 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 20 | 20 | 86 | 372 | 106 | 40 | 7 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 4.81 | 3.80 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 20 | 20 | 93 | 390 | 105 | 35 | 10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 4.63 | 3.67 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 23 | 14 | 81 | 357 | 91 | 39 | 6 | 21.0% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 4.76 | 4.02 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 6 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 40 | 165 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 3.78 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 82 | 40 | 10 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.53 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 85 | 41 | 11 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 85 | 41 | 11 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.53 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 83 | 40 | 11 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.57 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 88 | 371 | 79 | 39 | 11 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 76 | 38 | 11 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 81 | 344 | 72 | 37 | 11 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 74 | 34 | 10 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.62 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 69 | 32 | 10 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.73 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 64 | 31 | 10 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 59 | 30 | 10 | 21.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.99 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 94 | 73 | 361 | 1562 | 357 | 190 | 31 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | 4.54 | 3.79 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 40 | 200 | 866 | 198 | 105 | 17 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | 4.54 | 3.79 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Macko (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.53 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 274 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 88 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 88 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 86 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 84 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 84 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .341 | 8.17 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.12 | 3.97 | 158 | 84 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .338 | 3.49 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.22 | 1.78 | 560 | 84 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.16 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 25 | +0.17 | 3.29 | 128 | 84 |
| Brian Moran L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 83 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.39 | 17.4% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .308 | 5.57 | 13.9% | 1.8% | 49 | +1.18 | 4.08 | 212 | 82 |
| John Beller L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 170 | 82 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 82 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 82 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .382 | 3.83 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.22 | 2.44 | 171 | 82 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.65 | 3.93 | 264 | 82 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 81 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.27 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .317 | 3.29 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.98 | 2.97 | 245 | 80 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | .322 | 4.68 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.61 | 3.96 | 265 | 80 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.54 | 25.3% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .284 | 5.08 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 42 | +0.54 | 3.43 | 152 | 80 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.89 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 146 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $15M | +$9M | ||