Adam Macko

P Round Rock Express

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	20	20	93	4.63	3.37	26.9%	9.0%	—	K 21.4% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.70
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	14	81	4.76	3.26	25.5%	10.9%	—	K 20.6% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.84
2026	25	MIX2 levels	55	2	64	4.90	3.71	24.1%	8.6%	0.6	K 22.2% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.75
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	28	0	29	4.50	4.38	22.1%	9.5%	0.1
2028PROJ81% MLB	27	MLBTEX	30	0	31	4.44	4.41	22.2%	9.5%	0.1
2029PROJ87% MLB	28	MLBTEX	27	0	28	4.47	4.49	22.2%	9.7%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo51

K%50

xwOBA vs24

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsWesley Wright (age 25) · Ben Holmes (age 26) · Jordan Carr (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.50

FIP4.38

K%22.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p5022.1%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	8	2	21	94	31	11	1	25%	2.7	22.4%	14.6%	7.8%	1.5%	3.38	3.88	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	8	2	21	94	31	11	1	25%	2.7	33.0%	11.7%	21.3%	1.1%	3.38	2.35	—
2021	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	9	9	33	155	56	21	1	100%	3.7	26.7%	16.0%	10.7%	1.0%	4.59	3.40	—
2021	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	9	9	33	155	56	21	1	100%	3.7	36.1%	13.5%	22.6%	0.6%	4.59	2.02	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	8	8	38	167	60	20	4	100%	4.8	27.7%	13.8%	13.9%	2.4%	3.99	3.84	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	8	8	38	167	60	20	4	100%	4.8	35.9%	12.0%	24.0%	2.4%	3.99	2.89	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	20	20	86	372	106	40	7	100%	4.3	21.9%	12.4%	9.6%	1.9%	4.81	3.84	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	20	20	86	372	106	40	7	100%	4.3	28.5%	10.8%	17.7%	1.9%	4.81	3.09	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	93	390	105	35	10	100%	4.7	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	2.2%	4.63	3.70	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	93	390	105	35	10	100%	4.7	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	2.2%	4.63	3.70	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	93	390	105	35	10	100%	4.7	26.9%	9.0%	17.9%	2.6%	4.63	3.37	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	81	357	91	39	6	61%	3.5	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	2.2%	4.76	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	81	357	91	39	6	61%	3.5	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	2.2%	4.76	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	14	81	357	91	39	6	61%	3.5	25.5%	10.9%	14.6%	1.7%	4.76	3.26	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	2	64	291	70	25	8	4%	1.2	22.2%	8.1%	14.1%	2.7%	4.90	3.75	+0.6
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	2	64	291	70	25	8	4%	1.2	22.2%	8.1%	14.1%	2.7%	4.90	3.75	+0.6
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	2	64	291	70	25	8	4%	1.2	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	2.7%	4.90	3.71	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			30	1	31	145	32	11	5	3%	1.0	22.1%	7.6%	14.5%	3.4%	5.23	4.20	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	28	0	29	122	27	12	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.7%	2.9%	4.50	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	36	0	38	158	35	15	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.5%	12.7%	2.9%	4.44	4.41	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	30	0	32	134	30	13	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.49	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	25	0	26	109	24	11	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.57	4.64	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	18	9	3	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.4%	4.73	4.84	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	31	131	29	12	4	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.5%	12.7%	2.9%	4.44	4.41	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	27	0	28	118	26	11	4	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.49	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	22	0	23	97	21	10	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.57	4.64	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	TEX	17	0	18	76	16	8	3	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.4%	4.73	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	1	130	564	124	52	18	1%	1.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	3.2%	4.70	4.16	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	2	200	866	190	80	28	1%	1.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	3.2%	4.70	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		143	75	418	1826	412	205	38	52%	2.9	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	2.1%	4.61	3.76	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	36	200	874	197	98	18	52%	2.9	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	2.1%	4.61	3.76	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 33 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.54 (+0.30)K% 26.0% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.03%	—	×0.860	22.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×0.900	8.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 64 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.38 (+0.45)K% 22.6% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.65%	—	×0.860	19.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.54%	—	×0.900	11.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.09%	÷0.847	×1.100	2.72%

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 17 IPFIP 0.51 → 1.65 (+1.14)K% 37.1% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.14%	—	×0.680	25.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.29%	—	×1.250	5.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.077	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 0.51 → 1.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 81 IPFIP 3.11 → 3.70 (+0.59)K% 26.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.39%	—	×0.810	21.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.80%	—	×1.100	9.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷1.145	×1.200	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 129).

Result: FIP 3.11 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 9 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.89 (+1.43)K% 36.4% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.740	26.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.180	7.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.003	×1.300	3.93%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 86 IPFIP 3.09 → 3.84 (+0.76)K% 28.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.49%	—	×0.770	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.75%	—	×1.150	12.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷1.253	×1.250	1.88%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 3.09 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 38 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.84 (+0.94)K% 35.9% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.93%	—	×0.770	27.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.98%	—	×1.150	13.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.237	×1.250	2.42%

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AModesto Nuts · 33 IPFIP 2.12 → 3.40 (+1.28)K% 36.1% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.13%	—	×0.740	26.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.55%	—	×1.180	15.99%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷0.861	×1.300	0.97%

Result: FIP 2.12 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Macko (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.50	22.1%	12.4%	95	+0.12	—	—	—
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	78
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	77
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	74
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	73
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	73
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	73
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	71
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	71
Tommy Vail L 2024 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	27.5%	15.3%	1.7%	.237	5.19	19.5%	2.9%	99	+1.54	3.65	168	70
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	70
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	70
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	70
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	70
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	69
Pat Misch L 2008 · 5.05 FIP	26	SW	5.05	16.5%	5.7%	4.8%	.268	4.53	10.8%	5.4%	100	-0.52	3.50	265	69
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	69
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	69
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	69
Sam Long L 2021 · 3.34 FIP	26	SW	3.34	24.6%	8.5%	2.2%	.274	4.20	19.5%	10.3%	191	+0.86	3.08	446	68
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	31	22.0%	9.7%	1.20	4.64
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*