Frankeli Arias
P
Winston-Salem Dash
+0.0
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.2 · 2030
ERA4.90
FIP4.90
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.3%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%8.5%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 13 | 5 | 49 | 201 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 16.9% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 3.33 | 3.73 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 13 | 10 | 54 | 235 | 52 | 23 | 6 | 15.0% | 12.2% | 1.4% | 4.67 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 28 | 8 | 71 | 320 | 78 | 33 | 9 | 18.0% | 12.2% | 4.7% | 4.92 | 5.67 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 26 | 17 | 89 | 370 | 69 | 40 | 8 | 14.4% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 3.76 | 5.03 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 4 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 18.90 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 72 | 41 | 11 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.90 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 92 | 396 | 76 | 46 | 13 | 19.3% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 5.41 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 92 | 45 | 14 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 106 | 48 | 15 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 114 | 50 | 16 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 117 | 51 | 17 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 117 | 51 | 17 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 113 | 51 | 17 | 21.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 124 | 521 | 109 | 50 | 16 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 104 | 48 | 16 | 20.6% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 98 | 47 | 16 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 93 | 46 | 16 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 86 | 44 | 15 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 80 | 43 | 15 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 91 | 386 | 73 | 41 | 14 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 84 | 40 | 266 | 1147 | 184 | 134 | 35 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 30 | 200 | 862 | 138 | 101 | 26 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.89 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Frankeli Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.58 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 354 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 94 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 90 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 90 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 90 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 88 |
| Jaylen Nowlin L 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.21 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .299 | 5.17 | 20.3% | 1.7% | 53 | -0.04 | 3.45 | 325 | 88 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 87 |
| Damon Jones L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 3.83 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 156 | -0.29 | 3.69 | 269 | 87 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 86 |
| Mason Green L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 16.2% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .329 | 4.64 | 19.0% | 5.1% | 252 | +0.44 | 3.72 | 364 | 86 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 86 |
| Eddie Campbell L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.06 | 13.5% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .315 | 6.31 | 13.7% | -3.8% | 140 | +1.25 | 5.06 | 250 | 86 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.11 | 14.7% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .328 | 5.60 | 15.2% | -2.7% | 66 | +0.49 | 5.11 | 165 | 85 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 85 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 85 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 85 |
| Cameron Bishop L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .316 | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 66 | -1.22 | 2.86 | 305 | 85 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .318 | 3.31 | 24.2% | 15.8% | 322 | -1.15 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 85 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.12 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.32 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.80 | 2.44 | 604 | 84 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$4M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| Totals | $6M | $42M | +$37M | ||