Frankeli Arias — OGILVIE

Frankeli Arias P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126134vR 143

ERA5.76

FIP5.76

K%13.9%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%-0.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	13	5	49	201	50	12	4	38%	3.7	16.9%	7.5%	9.5%	2.3%	3.33	3.87	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	13	5	49	201	50	12	4	38%	3.7	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	2.0%	3.33	2.85	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	13	10	54	235	52	23	6	77%	4.2	15.0%	12.2%	2.8%	1.6%	4.67	4.27	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	13	10	54	235	52	23	6	77%	4.2	15.0%	12.2%	2.8%	1.6%	4.67	4.27	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	13	10	54	235	52	23	6	77%	4.2	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	2.6%	4.67	3.90	—
2024	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	28	8	71	320	78	33	9	29%	2.5	18.0%	12.2%	5.9%	4.5%	4.92	5.57	—
2024	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	28	8	71	320	78	33	9	29%	2.5	18.0%	12.2%	5.9%	4.5%	4.92	5.57	—
2024	21	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	28	8	71	320	78	33	9	29%	2.5	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	2.8%	4.92	3.94	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	26	17	89	370	69	40	8	65%	3.4	14.4%	12.4%	1.9%	2.9%	3.76	5.07	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	26	17	89	370	69	40	8	65%	3.4	14.4%	12.4%	1.9%	2.9%	3.76	5.07	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	26	17	89	370	69	40	8	65%	3.4	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	2.2%	3.76	4.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	39	1	45	212	48	29	8	3%	1.1	16.3%	16.2%	0.1%	5.1%	7.05	6.60	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	39	1	45	212	48	29	8	3%	1.1	16.3%	16.2%	0.1%	5.1%	7.05	6.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CWS	5	0	8	36	12	3	1	0%	1.7	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	2.8%	5.40	2.87	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CWS	33	1	36	170	36	24	7	3%	1.1	21.2%	14.1%	7.1%	4.1%	7.32	5.36	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	CWS	1	0	1	6	0	2	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	13.50	7.32	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CWS	5	0	6	24	3	3	1	0%	1.1	13.9%	13.9%	-0.1%	3.1%	5.76	5.76	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	50	236	51	32	9	—	—	21.8%	13.7%	8.1%	3.7%	6.91	6.51	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	78	0	82	345	55	44	10	0%	1.0	15.9%	12.7%	3.2%	3.0%	5.49	5.41	-0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	79	0	83	350	60	42	11	0%	1.0	17.1%	11.9%	5.1%	3.0%	5.29	5.21	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	79	0	83	350	62	41	11	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.7%	5.9%	3.0%	5.17	5.13	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	78	0	82	345	61	40	11	0%	1.0	17.7%	11.7%	6.0%	3.1%	5.14	5.14	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	75	0	79	334	66	37	11	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	3.2%	5.03	4.96	-0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	72	0	76	319	62	36	11	0%	1.0	19.4%	11.2%	8.1%	3.3%	5.07	5.09	-0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	68	0	71	300	57	35	11	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.6%	7.4%	3.5%	5.19	5.27	-0.6
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	33	0	35	148	24	19	4	0%	1.1	15.9%	12.7%	3.2%	3.0%	5.49	5.41	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	52	0	55	232	40	28	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.9%	5.1%	3.0%	5.29	5.21	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	63	0	66	279	49	33	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.7%	5.9%	3.0%	5.17	5.13	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	67	0	70	296	52	34	9	0%	1.0	17.7%	11.7%	6.0%	3.1%	5.14	5.14	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	67	0	70	296	58	33	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	3.2%	5.03	4.96	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	66	0	69	291	56	33	10	0%	1.0	19.4%	11.2%	8.1%	3.3%	5.07	5.09	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	63	0	66	279	53	32	10	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.6%	7.4%	3.5%	5.19	5.27	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		410	0	430	1816	331	211	58	0%	1.0	18.2%	11.6%	6.6%	3.2%	5.17	4.77	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	98	27	0%	1.0	18.2%	11.6%	6.6%	3.2%	5.17	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		119	41	307	1338	215	163	44	34%	2.6	16.1%	12.2%	3.9%	3.3%	4.60	5.11	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	27	200	871	140	106	29	34%	2.6	16.1%	12.2%	3.9%	3.3%	4.60	5.11	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Frankeli Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.76	13.9%	13.9%	3.1%	—	5.25	16.9%	4.7%	247	-0.51	—	—	—
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	84
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	84
Edwin Escobar L 2015 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	9.6%	11.9%	3.9%	.268	4.28	13.7%	4.9%	122	-1.68	4.28	218	83
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	82
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	81
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	80
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	78
Garrett Williams L 2018 · 5.04 FIP	23	SW	5.04	14.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.335	4.33	19.3%	4.5%	162	-0.71	3.37	470	78
Justin Kelly L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	23	SU	4.96	13.4%	12.7%	2.5%	.421	3.71	19.4%	4.6%	123	-1.25	3.51	160	77
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	76
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	75
Luis Ysla L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SW	4.88	19.6%	12.5%	3.4%	.412	4.47	18.3%	4.3%	208	-0.41	3.75	378	74
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	74
Kikito Severino L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SW	5.78	11.9%	19.5%	2.2%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	135	74
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	74
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	74
Felix Carvallo L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	132	74
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	74
Juliandry Higuera L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	13.8%	14.1%	1.7%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	197	74
Will Gilbert L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	12.4%	11.9%	2.1%	.339	3.64	19.2%	10.3%	122	-1.05	2.92	141	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	77	17.6%	11.9%	1.22	5.26
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58