Frankeli Arias
P
Winston-Salem Dash
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131140vR 149
ERA5.81
FIP5.81
K%13.9%
BB%13.8%
K-BB%0.1%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 13 | 5 | 49 | 201 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 38% | 3.7 | 16.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 3.33 | 3.68 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 13 | 5 | 49 | 201 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 38% | 3.7 | 24.9% | 6.0% | 18.9% | 2.0% | 3.33 | 2.85 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 13 | 10 | 54 | 235 | 52 | 23 | 6 | 77% | 4.2 | 15.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 4.67 | 3.96 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 13 | 10 | 54 | 235 | 52 | 23 | 6 | 77% | 4.2 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.67 | 3.90 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 28 | 8 | 71 | 320 | 78 | 33 | 9 | 29% | 2.5 | 18.0% | 12.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.92 | 6.25 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 28 | 8 | 71 | 320 | 78 | 33 | 9 | 29% | 2.5 | 24.4% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 3.94 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 26 | 17 | 89 | 370 | 69 | 40 | 8 | 65% | 3.4 | 14.4% | 12.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.76 | 5.22 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 26 | 17 | 89 | 370 | 69 | 40 | 8 | 65% | 3.4 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 3.76 | 4.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 27 | 1 | 30 | 142 | 30 | 20 | 5 | 4% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 15.2% | 1.8% | 4.6% | 6.23 | 6.12 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CWS | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 36 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.9% | 13.8% | 0.1% | 3.2% | 5.81 | 5.81 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.9% | 13.8% | 0.1% | 3.2% | 5.81 | 5.81 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 92 | 404 | 66 | 56 | 13 | — | — | 16.4% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.95 | 5.91 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.9% | 13.8% | 0.1% | 3.2% | 5.81 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 61 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 43 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.54 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 47 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 11.9% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 5.34 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.54 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 31 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 11.9% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 5.34 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 0 | 71 | 298 | 50 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.42 | 4.96 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 142 | 102 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.42 | 4.96 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 107 | 41 | 293 | 1268 | 204 | 150 | 43 | 38% | 2.7 | 16.1% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 5.10 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 28 | 200 | 866 | 139 | 103 | 29 | 38% | 2.7 | 16.1% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 5.10 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Frankeli Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.81 | 13.9% | 13.8% | 3.2% | — | 5.36 | 16.5% | 4.3% | 128 | -0.45 | — | — | — |
| Estevan Gonzalez L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 14.1% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .322 | 4.80 | 14.7% | 0.1% | 130 | +0.11 | 4.62 | 195 | 85 |
| Edwin Escobar L 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.93 | 9.6% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.20 | 13.7% | 4.9% | 122 | -1.73 | 4.20 | 218 | 84 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.77 | 16.9% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 179 | -0.10 | 4.57 | 242 | 84 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.61 | 12.3% | 13.0% | 1.6% | .304 | 4.24 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 159 | -0.37 | 3.79 | 330 | 81 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.61 | 12.6% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .266 | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 101 | -1.53 | 3.54 | 146 | 80 |
| Garrett Williams L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.24 | 14.5% | 16.2% | 2.4% | .335 | 4.43 | 19.3% | 4.5% | 162 | -0.81 | 3.36 | 470 | 80 |
| Hayden Frank L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 80 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.70 | 15.9% | 16.5% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.09 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 142 | -1.61 | 4.01 | 258 | 79 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.81 | 16.4% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .304 | 5.26 | 17.3% | 0.4% | 52 | +0.45 | 4.81 | 108 | 77 |
| Drake Britton L 2029 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 77 |
| Jaime Arias L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .332 | 5.63 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.72 | 4.52 | 243 | 76 |
| Max Roberts L 2027 · 5.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.07 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.0% | .330 | 4.59 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 115 | -0.48 | 4.03 | 173 | 75 |
| Matt Minnick L 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.59 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.65 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 105 | -0.94 | 3.77 | 147 | 75 |
| Bryce Hubbart L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.10 | 15.5% | 13.8% | 2.8% | .313 | 4.90 | 19.3% | 6.1% | 68 | -0.20 | 4.73 | 181 | 74 |
| Justin Kelly L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.96 | 13.4% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .421 | 3.70 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 123 | -1.26 | 3.48 | 160 | 74 |
| Luis Ysla L 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.31 | 19.6% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .412 | 4.36 | 18.3% | 4.3% | 208 | -0.95 | 3.58 | 378 | 74 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.64 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 2.98 | 26.6% | 12.9% | 99 | -1.66 | 2.15 | 175 | 74 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .251 | 6.01 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +1.13 | 4.88 | 224 | 73 |
| Kikito Severino L 2024 · 5.70 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.70 | 11.9% | 19.5% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 135 | 72 |
| Nathan Kirby L 2027 · 5.11 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.11 | 17.7% | 16.2% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.89 | 25.3% | 8.7% | 38 | -1.22 | 3.89 | 145 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 15.7% | 12.8% | 1.22 | 5.56 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |