Jacob Lopez — OGILVIE

Jacob Lopez P Athletics

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 1.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION126 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA4.17

FIP4.34

K%22.3%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.4

Whiff%

p4524.6%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

SI (3%)

SL (34%)

CT-0.7 (20%)

FB-1.8 (37%)

CH-3.2 (8%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	9	4	25	95	34	6	2	44%	2.8	24.3%	7.9%	16.4%	2.9%	1.42	3.66	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	9	4	25	95	34	6	2	44%	2.8	35.8%	6.3%	29.5%	2.1%	1.42	2.15	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	11	60	243	96	18	6	73%	4.0	30.4%	8.8%	21.6%	3.4%	2.41	3.53	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	11	60	243	96	18	6	73%	4.0	39.5%	7.4%	32.1%	2.5%	2.41	2.09	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	25	120	497	140	58	9	83%	4.0	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	1.8%	2.86	3.49	+2.0
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	25	120	497	140	58	9	83%	4.0	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	1.8%	2.86	3.49	+2.0
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	25	120	497	140	58	9	83%	4.0	28.2%	11.7%	16.5%	1.8%	2.86	3.19	+2.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	99	426	114	52	14	80%	4.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	3.3%	4.36	4.29	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	99	426	114	52	14	80%	4.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	3.3%	4.36	4.29	+0.7
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	99	426	114	52	14	80%	4.0	26.8%	12.2%	14.6%	3.3%	4.36	4.21	+0.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	21	120	503	151	45	17	78%	4.4	28.7%	8.8%	19.9%	3.4%	3.69	3.67	+1.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	21	120	503	151	45	17	78%	4.4	28.7%	8.8%	19.9%	3.4%	3.69	3.67	+1.8
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	21	120	503	151	45	17	78%	4.4	30.0%	8.9%	21.1%	3.4%	3.69	3.55	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	40	226	991	233	99	36	75%	4.3	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.6%	4.49	4.42	+1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Athletics	28	25	126	562	121	58	23	89%	4.5	21.0%	10.2%	10.8%	4.3%	5.07	4.95	-0.1
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Athletics	28	25	126	562	121	58	23	89%	4.5	21.0%	10.2%	10.8%	4.3%	5.07	4.95	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	OAK	4	4	15	70	17	5	4	100%	3.8	24.3%	7.1%	17.1%	5.7%	7.20	5.09	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	OAK	24	21	111	492	104	53	19	88%	4.6	21.1%	10.8%	10.4%	3.9%	4.78	4.80	+0.1
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	OAK	24	21	111	492	104	53	19	88%	4.6	21.1%	10.8%	10.4%	3.9%	4.78	4.80	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB MLE	OAK	2	2	10	43	10	4	1	100%	5.1	22.3%	9.9%	12.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.34	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	OAK	2	2	10	42	9	4	1	100%	5.0	22.3%	9.9%	12.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.34	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	136	605	131	62	24	—	—	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	4.0%	5.00	4.91	-0.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	121	512	131	62	24	—	—	25.5%	12.2%	13.4%	4.8%	5.62	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	88	370	82	39	14	100%	5.8	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.7%	4.83	4.96	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	82	347	74	37	13	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	3.9%	5.03	5.17	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	83	350	77	37	13	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.7%	4.83	4.96	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	78	329	70	35	13	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	3.9%	5.03	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	69	398	1715	391	175	63	84%	4.9	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	3.7%	4.66	4.49	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	35	200	862	197	88	32	84%	4.9	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	3.7%	4.66	4.49	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		134	106	549	2326	575	230	75	79%	4.1	24.7%	9.9%	14.8%	3.2%	3.70	4.04	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	39	200	847	209	84	27	79%	4.1	24.7%	9.9%	14.8%	3.2%	3.70	4.04	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	25.2%	9.4%	3.2%	—	5.06	21.8%	11.2%	170	+0.75	—	—	—
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	72
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	70
Eric Surkamp L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.308	5.09	16.4%	7.1%	68	+1.09	4.00	182	69
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	68
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	68
Cade Gibson L 2023 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	15.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.306	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	222	-1.14	3.13	340	67
Kyle Hart L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	28	SP	4.88	17.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.262	4.55	17.9%	9.0%	172	-0.33	3.60	884	64
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	64
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	63
Dillon Peters L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	28	SP	4.86	22.8%	8.7%	4.7%	.286	4.87	15.8%	5.5%	39	+0.01	2.56	598	63
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	63
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	62
Derek Holland L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	16.7%	6.1%	4.3%	.270	4.63	18.8%	9.6%	414	-0.20	3.75	686	61
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	61
Ryan Carpenter L 2019 · 5.30 FIP	28	SP	5.30	17.3%	7.6%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	667	61
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	61
Yohan Flande L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	.289	3.27	15.1%	8.4%	172	-1.41	3.18	335	61
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	61
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	60
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	87	23.0%	10.2%	1.39	4.65
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19