Jacob Lopez

P Athletics

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	25	20	99	4.36	4.21	26.8%	12.2%	1.4	K 24.0% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.22
2025	27	MIX2 levels	27	21	120	3.69	3.55	30.0%	8.9%	2.7	K 29.0% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.65
2026	28	MIX2 levels	31	28	138	5.66	5.14	20.8%	10.1%	0.4	K 20.4% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.13
2027PROJ	29	MLBOAK	14	14	84	4.68	5.01	21.4%	9.9%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBOAK	11	11	64	5.00	5.21	20.7%	10.2%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBOAK	8	8	50	5.27	5.44	20.0%	10.5%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs67

K%37

FB Velo10

Form8.14 ERA (proj 4.68) · K 14.5% (proj 21.4%) · BB 7.3% (proj 9.9%) ▼ last 60d · 24 IP through Oct 27

CompsChris Narveson (age 29) · John Lamb (age 28) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.68

FIP5.01

K%21.4%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP84

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.3

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p670.295

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	9	4	25	95	34	6	2	44%	2.8	24.3%	7.9%	16.4%	2.9%	1.42	3.66	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	9	4	25	95	34	6	2	44%	2.8	35.8%	6.3%	29.5%	2.1%	1.42	2.15	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	11	60	243	96	18	6	73%	4.0	30.4%	8.8%	21.6%	3.4%	2.41	3.53	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	11	60	243	96	18	6	73%	4.0	39.5%	7.4%	32.1%	2.5%	2.41	2.09	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	25	120	497	140	58	9	83%	4.0	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	1.8%	2.86	3.45	+2.8
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	25	120	497	140	58	9	83%	4.0	28.2%	11.7%	16.5%	1.8%	2.86	3.19	+3.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	99	426	114	52	14	80%	4.0	24.0%	10.7%	13.3%	3.3%	4.36	4.22	+1.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	99	426	114	52	14	80%	4.0	24.0%	10.7%	13.3%	3.3%	4.36	4.22	+1.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	99	426	114	52	14	80%	4.0	26.8%	12.2%	14.6%	3.3%	4.36	4.21	+1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	21	120	503	151	45	17	78%	4.4	29.0%	8.8%	20.2%	3.4%	3.69	3.65	+2.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	21	120	503	151	45	17	78%	4.4	29.0%	8.8%	20.2%	3.4%	3.69	3.65	+2.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	21	120	503	151	45	17	78%	4.4	30.0%	8.9%	21.1%	3.4%	3.69	3.55	+2.7
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	28	138	621	129	63	27	90%	4.5	20.4%	10.1%	10.3%	4.5%	5.66	5.13	+0.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	28	138	621	129	63	27	90%	4.5	20.4%	10.1%	10.3%	4.5%	5.66	5.13	+0.4
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	28	138	621	129	63	27	90%	4.5	20.8%	10.1%	10.6%	4.3%	5.66	5.14	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			56	43	239	1050	241	104	40	77%	4.3	23.0%	9.9%	13.0%	3.8%	4.86	4.57	+2.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	OAK	14	14	84	355	76	35	13	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.9%	11.5%	3.8%	4.68	5.01	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	68	286	59	29	11	100%	6.2	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	4.0%	5.00	5.21	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	52	220	44	23	9	100%	5.8	20.0%	10.5%	9.4%	4.2%	5.27	5.44	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	64	270	56	28	11	100%	5.8	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	4.0%	5.00	5.21	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	50	211	42	22	9	100%	6.2	20.0%	10.5%	9.4%	4.2%	5.27	5.44	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	62	353	1531	339	154	60	83%	4.7	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	3.9%	4.95	4.64	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	35	200	868	192	87	34	83%	4.7	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	3.9%	4.95	4.64	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		137	109	562	2385	591	235	79	80%	4.1	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	3.3%	3.88	4.08	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	39	200	849	210	84	28	80%	4.1	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	3.3%	3.88	4.08	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 15 IPFIP 5.09 → 5.60 (+0.51)K% 24.3% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.29%	—	×0.860	20.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	5.71%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.09 → 5.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 27 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.30 (+0.26)K% 36.5% → 31.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.54%	—	×0.860	31.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.183	×1.100	1.79%

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 89 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.22 (+0.24)K% 27.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.89%	—	×0.860	23.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.84%	—	×0.900	10.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.061	×1.100	3.27%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 79 IPFIP 3.83 → 3.92 (+0.09)K% 26.0% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.97%	—	×0.860	22.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.03%	—	×0.900	12.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.09%	÷1.137	×1.100	2.02%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 28 IPFIP 1.65 → 2.53 (+0.88)K% 41.7% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.67%	—	×0.810	33.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.087	×1.200	2.04%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 1.65 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 55 IPFIP 2.21 → 3.53 (+1.32)K% 39.5% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.46%	—	×0.770	30.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.62%	—	×1.150	8.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.69%	÷0.978	×1.250	3.44%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.21 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 5 IPFIP 0.36 → 1.06 (+0.71)K% 40.0% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.810	32.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.100	5.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.938	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.36 → 1.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Giants Orange · 25 IPFIP 2.03 → 3.66 (+1.63)K% 35.8% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.79%	—	×0.680	24.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.32%	—	×1.250	7.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.95%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.03 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	21.4%	9.9%	3.8%	—	5.31	20.4%	10.0%	120	+0.30	—	—	—
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	68
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	62
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	61
Kaz Ishii L 2003 · 4.51 FIP	29	SP	4.51	21.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.280	5.18	13.2%	0.9%	263	+0.67	4.51	564	60
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	59
Yohan Flande L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	.289	3.27	15.1%	8.4%	172	-1.41	3.18	394	57
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	57
Cole Irvin L 2023 · 4.32 FIP	29	SP-	4.32	17.1%	5.3%	3.6%	.282	4.11	13.7%	6.6%	249	-0.21	3.37	1,183	57
Christian Friedrich L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	29	SP	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	297	57
J.A. Happ L 2012 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	23.0%	8.8%	3.0%	.313	3.87	20.1%	12.5%	423	-0.07	3.37	1,890	57
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	56
Brett Oberholtzer L 2018 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	13.6%	7.3%	4.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	658	56
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	56
Tom Gorzelanny L 2011 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP-	3.94	21.3%	6.3%	3.4%	.282	3.69	22.2%	13.4%	178	-0.25	2.67	899	56
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	56
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	54
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	54
Brian Burres L 2010 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	12.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.281	6.49	16.7%	10.0%	14	+1.91	4.50	344	54
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	54
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	88	22.0%	10.0%	1.50	4.90
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Dave Beard ('80-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.4	92	23.1%*	10.3%*	1.50*	5.13*
Roansy Contreras ('25)	1.2	82	19.3%	9.8%	1.38	4.77
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50