Jacob Lopez
P
Athletics
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 1.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98108vR 117
ERA4.49
FIP4.68
K%21.2%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.6
Whiff%
p1119.8%
K%
p1016.4%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
SI (6%)
SL (31%)
CT-0.7 (19%)
FB-1.8 (40%)
CH-3.2 (10%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 9 | 4 | 25 | 95 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 44% | 2.8 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 1.42 | 3.66 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 9 | 4 | 25 | 95 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 44% | 2.8 | 35.8% | 6.3% | 29.5% | 2.1% | 1.42 | 2.15 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 11 | 60 | 243 | 96 | 18 | 6 | 73% | 4.0 | 30.4% | 8.8% | 21.6% | 3.5% | 2.41 | 3.58 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 11 | 60 | 243 | 96 | 18 | 6 | 73% | 4.0 | 39.5% | 7.4% | 32.1% | 2.5% | 2.41 | 2.09 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 25 | 120 | 497 | 140 | 58 | 9 | 83% | 4.0 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 1.6% | 2.86 | 3.50 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 25 | 120 | 497 | 140 | 58 | 9 | 83% | 4.0 | 28.2% | 11.7% | 16.5% | 1.8% | 2.86 | 3.19 | +3.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 99 | 426 | 114 | 52 | 14 | 80% | 4.0 | 24.5% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.30 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 99 | 426 | 114 | 52 | 14 | 80% | 4.0 | 26.8% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.21 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 21 | 120 | 503 | 151 | 45 | 17 | 78% | 4.4 | 29.1% | 9.0% | 20.1% | 3.4% | 3.69 | 3.67 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 21 | 120 | 503 | 151 | 45 | 17 | 78% | 4.4 | 30.0% | 8.9% | 21.1% | 3.4% | 3.69 | 3.55 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Athletics | 18 | 15 | 70 | 332 | 60 | 39 | 15 | 83% | 3.9 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.91 | 5.67 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | OAK | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.49 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | OAK | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.49 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 107 | 488 | 93 | 56 | 21 | — | — | 19.1% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 6.08 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 92 | 389 | 93 | 56 | 21 | — | — | 23.9% | 14.3% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 7.06 | 5.81 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 88 | 370 | 77 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.7% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 70 | 41 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.28 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 73 | 40 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 66 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.28 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 65 | 369 | 1598 | 344 | 176 | 59 | 83% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 4.72 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 35 | 200 | 866 | 186 | 95 | 32 | 83% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 124 | 96 | 494 | 2096 | 527 | 228 | 65 | 77% | 4.0 | 25.1% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 3.81 | 4.06 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 39 | 200 | 849 | 213 | 92 | 26 | 77% | 4.0 | 25.1% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 3.81 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Lopez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 25.6% | 10.0% | 3.2% | — | 5.31 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 170 | +0.97 | — | — | — |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 4.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 311 | 73 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 71 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 70 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.64 | 3.24 | 298 | 70 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.29 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .308 | 5.15 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +0.86 | 4.29 | 182 | 69 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 69 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 68 |
| Everett Teaford L 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 67 |
| Chipper Smith L 2023 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 66 |
| Nate Fisher L 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.34 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 4.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 229 | 66 |
| Kyle Hart L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .262 | 4.55 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 172 | +0.04 | 3.64 | 856 | 65 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 65 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 65 |
| James Gillheeney L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 64 |
| Zach Logue L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 700 | 64 |
| John Anderson L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 235 | 63 |
| John Lamb L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.76 | 22.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 390 | 63 |
| Yohan Flande L 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.45 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.24 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.21 | 3.16 | 335 | 63 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 62 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 87 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 1.38 | 4.81 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |