Jacob Lopez
P
Athletics
+0.7
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.20
FIP4.26
xFIP6.39
SIERA6.21
K%26.9%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%17.0%
IP92
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4040
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p1090.5
Whiff%
p2221.3%
K%
p1014.9%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
SI (7%)
SL (29%)
CT-0.7 (20%)
FB-1.8 (41%)
CH-3.2 (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 9 | 4 | 25 | 95 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 1.42 | 3.66 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 15 | 11 | 60 | 243 | 96 | 18 | 6 | 30.4% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 2.41 | 3.52 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 30 | 25 | 120 | 497 | 140 | 58 | 9 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 1.8% | 2.86 | 3.60 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 25 | 20 | 99 | 426 | 114 | 52 | 14 | 24.5% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.38 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Athletics | 27 | 21 | 120 | 503 | 151 | 45 | 17 | 29.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 3.69 | 3.73 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Athletics | 4 | 4 | 18 | 90 | 16 | 17 | 3 | 17.8% | 18.9% | 3.3% | 6.38 | 5.82 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 69 | 36 | 10 | 22.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 92 | 400 | 85 | 53 | 13 | 21.2% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.75 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 90 | 378 | 81 | 45 | 13 | 21.5% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 87 | 367 | 77 | 44 | 12 | 20.9% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 72 | 43 | 12 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 5.09 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 80 | 340 | 67 | 42 | 12 | 19.7% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 68 | 38 | 12 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 5.17 | 5.15 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 63 | 36 | 11 | 20.4% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 5.24 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 57 | 35 | 11 | 19.6% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 5.36 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 51 | 33 | 11 | 18.9% | 12.3% | 3.9% | 5.51 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 85 | 442 | 1854 | 485 | 205 | 55 | 26.2% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 3.42 | 3.92 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 38 | 200 | 840 | 220 | 93 | 25 | 26.2% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 3.42 | 3.92 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Lopez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | — | 5.07 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 260 | +0.56 | — | — | — |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.82 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.58 | 3.24 | 298 | 74 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 74 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .341 | 4.37 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.07 | 3.37 | 393 | 72 |
| Orlando Lara L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 72 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 71 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 71 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.36 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .283 | 3.88 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.48 | 3.73 | 311 | 71 |
| Everett Teaford L 2029 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 70 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 353 | 70 |
| John Anderson L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 69 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.11 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.14 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +1.03 | 4.11 | 182 | 69 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.04 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .345 | 5.08 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | +0.04 | 5.04 | 175 | 69 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.80 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 311 | 69 |
| Chipper Smith L 2023 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 69 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.83 | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 483 | 69 |
| Kyle Hart L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 3.6% | .262 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 172 | -0.37 | 3.60 | 808 | 69 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 69 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 69 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.74 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 0.8% | .329 | 4.75 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 187 | +1.01 | 3.74 | 333 | 69 |
| James Gillheeney L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.