Erick Lanza

P DSL Mariners

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 169 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKSEA	14	5	24	4.12	4.22	15.2%	14.3%	—	K 10.3% · BB 17.9% · FIP 5.22
2026	19	ROKSEA	11	11	46	2.15	3.51	27.0%	9.7%	—	K 18.4% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.17
2027PROJ	20	MLBSEA	5	5	23	5.06	5.06	20.0%	12.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBSEA	4	4	21	4.87	4.80	20.9%	11.5%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsReibyn Corona (age 19) · Moises Castillo (age 19) · Deretd Parra (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%20.0%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	4	0	5	33	3	7	0	0%	1.2	9.1%	21.2%	-12.1%	0.0%	16.20	5.02	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	4	0	5	33	3	7	0	0%	1.2	9.1%	21.2%	-12.1%	0.0%	16.20	5.02	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	4	0	5	33	3	7	0	0%	1.2	9.1%	21.2%	-12.1%	0.0%	16.20	6.10	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	14	5	24	112	17	16	1	36%	1.7	10.3%	17.9%	-7.5%	1.3%	4.12	5.22	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	14	5	24	112	17	16	1	36%	1.7	10.3%	17.9%	-7.5%	1.3%	4.12	5.22	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	14	5	24	112	17	16	1	36%	1.7	15.2%	14.3%	0.9%	0.9%	4.12	4.22	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	11	46	185	50	18	5	100%	4.2	18.4%	12.2%	6.2%	3.8%	2.15	5.17	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	11	46	185	50	18	5	100%	4.2	18.4%	12.2%	6.2%	3.8%	2.15	5.17	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	11	46	185	50	18	5	100%	4.2	27.0%	9.7%	17.3%	2.7%	2.15	3.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	SEA	5	5	23	97	19	12	3	100%	4.6	20.0%	12.8%	7.2%	3.0%	5.06	5.06	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	44	184	38	21	5	100%	4.8	20.9%	11.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.87	4.80	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	SEA	4	4	21	89	19	10	3	100%	5.2	20.9%	11.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.87	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	21	90	19	10	3	100%	5.3	20.9%	11.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.87	4.42	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	178	94	28	100%	4.8	20.9%	11.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.87	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		29	16	75	330	49	50	8	55%	2.6	14.7%	15.0%	-0.3%	2.6%	3.72	5.17	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	43	200	880	129	132	23	55%	2.6	14.7%	15.0%	-0.3%	2.6%	3.72	5.17	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erick Lanza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	20.0%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.80	20.9%	9.3%	44	-0.26	—	—	—
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	85
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	85
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	83
Gilberto Batista R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP-	4.00	16.9%	11.4%	1.6%	.308	5.86	14.7%	4.9%	172	+1.86	3.63	250	83
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	83
Jonawel Valdez R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	20	SP-	4.13	17.5%	13.8%	1.4%	.309	5.20	12.5%	0.2%	81	+1.07	4.04	141	83
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	82
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	81
Cristian Aray R 2024 · 4.99 FIP	17	SP-	4.99	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.272	4.48	13.0%	-2.3%	72	-0.51	4.44	104	81
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	81
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	81
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	81
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	81
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	80
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	80
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	20.6%	12.0%	1.15	4.94
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19