Erick Lanza — OGILVIE

Erick Lanza P DSL Mariners

Age 19 RHP 6'2" / 169 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%19.4%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	4	0	5	33	3	7	0	0%	1.2	9.1%	21.2%	-12.1%	0.0%	16.20	5.02	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	4	0	5	33	3	7	0	0%	1.2	9.1%	21.2%	-12.1%	0.0%	16.20	5.02	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	4	0	5	33	3	7	0	0%	1.2	9.1%	21.2%	-12.1%	0.0%	16.20	6.10	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	14	5	24	112	17	16	1	36%	1.7	10.3%	17.9%	-7.5%	1.3%	4.12	5.22	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	14	5	24	112	17	16	1	36%	1.7	10.3%	17.9%	-7.5%	1.3%	4.12	5.22	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	14	5	24	112	17	16	1	36%	1.7	15.2%	14.3%	0.9%	0.9%	4.12	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	11	46	185	50	18	5	100%	4.2	18.4%	12.2%	6.2%	3.8%	2.15	5.17	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	11	46	185	50	18	5	100%	4.2	18.4%	12.2%	6.2%	3.8%	2.15	5.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	SEA	11	11	46	185	50	18	5	100%	4.2	27.0%	9.7%	17.3%	2.7%	2.15	3.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	47	199	41	27	6	100%	4.7	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	2.9%	5.14	5.04	-0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	50	209	44	25	6	100%	5.0	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	2.8%	4.90	4.78	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	52	220	49	24	6	100%	5.2	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	2.8%	4.67	4.52	+0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	54	228	52	23	6	100%	5.4	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.8%	4.47	4.34	+0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	56	234	55	22	6	100%	5.5	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	2.7%	4.31	4.21	+0.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	56	237	56	22	6	100%	5.6	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	2.7%	4.20	4.13	+0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	56	237	57	22	6	100%	6.2	24.0%	9.2%	14.8%	2.7%	4.14	4.11	+0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	55	234	56	22	6	100%	6.2	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	+0.5
2027	20	MLB CTX	SEA	5	5	23	97	20	13	3	100%	4.6	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	2.8%	5.10	5.00	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	36	152	32	18	4	100%	5.1	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	2.8%	4.86	4.74	+0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	44	186	41	20	5	100%	4.9	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	2.7%	4.63	4.48	+0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	49	207	47	21	6	100%	5.4	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.7%	4.43	4.30	+0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	51	215	50	21	6	100%	5.7	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	2.7%	4.27	4.17	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	53	224	53	21	6	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	2.6%	4.16	4.09	+0.5
2033	26	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	53	224	54	21	6	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.2%	14.8%	2.6%	4.10	4.07	+0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	53	224	54	21	6	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	2.7%	4.10	4.10	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	66	362	1527	351	155	41	100%	5.5	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	2.7%	4.38	3.92	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	194	86	23	100%	5.5	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	2.7%	4.38	3.92	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		29	16	75	330	49	50	8	55%	2.6	14.7%	15.0%	-0.3%	2.6%	3.72	5.17	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	43	200	880	129	132	23	55%	2.6	14.7%	15.0%	-0.3%	2.6%	3.72	5.17	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erick Lanza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	19.4%	15.3%	2.9%	—	4.77	21.2%	9.2%	149	-0.63	—	—	—
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	86
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	86
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	84
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	84
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	199	84
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	83
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	83
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	83
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	82
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	81
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Jaydenn Estanista R 2021 · 4.72 FIP	19	SP-	4.72	18.1%	19.2%	1.3%	.254	5.35	21.0%	2.6%	109	+0.63	4.59	230	81
Luis Reyes R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	17	SP-	6.24	18.4%	20.7%	3.8%	.333	4.28	17.1%	5.1%	129	-1.96	4.02	167	80
Edgar Isea R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	19	SP-	5.51	19.3%	20.3%	2.7%	.371	5.19	21.4%	-4.1%	98	-0.32	4.50	162	80
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	80
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	80
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	80
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	80
Eliazar Dishmey R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	18	SW	6.05	17.9%	15.1%	4.6%	.302	3.83	21.9%	9.2%	268	-2.22	3.40	311	79
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	49	22.7%	10.5%	1.07	4.51
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93