Erick Lanza — OGILVIE

Erick Lanza P DSL Mariners

Age 19 RHP 6'2" / 169 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 122

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%19.4%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	4	0	5	33	3	7	0	0%	1.2	9.1%	21.2%	-12.1%	0.0%	16.20	5.02	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	4	0	5	33	3	7	0	0%	1.2	9.1%	21.2%	-12.1%	0.0%	16.20	6.10	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	14	5	24	112	17	16	1	36%	1.7	10.3%	17.9%	-7.5%	1.4%	4.12	5.28	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	14	5	24	112	17	16	1	36%	1.7	15.2%	14.3%	0.9%	0.9%	4.12	4.22	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	9	9	36	148	40	14	3	100%	4.0	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	2.8%	1.98	4.60	—
2026	19	ROK	SEA	9	9	36	148	40	14	3	100%	4.0	27.0%	9.5%	17.6%	2.0%	1.98	3.13	—
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	SEA	11	11	50	213	43	28	6	100%	4.6	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	2.9%	5.14	5.04	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	SEA	11	11	53	223	47	27	6	100%	4.8	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	2.8%	4.90	4.78	+0.1
2029	22	MLB	SEA	11	11	56	234	52	25	7	100%	5.0	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	2.8%	4.67	4.52	+0.2
2030	23	MLB	SEA	11	11	58	243	56	25	7	100%	5.2	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.8%	4.47	4.34	+0.4
2031	24	MLB	SEA	11	11	59	249	58	24	7	100%	5.4	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	2.7%	4.32	4.21	+0.5
2032	25	MLB	SEA	10	10	60	252	60	23	7	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	2.7%	4.21	4.13	+0.5
2033	26	MLB	SEA	10	10	60	252	60	23	7	100%	6.0	24.0%	9.2%	14.8%	2.7%	4.15	4.11	+0.6
2034	27	MLB	SEA	10	10	59	248	60	23	7	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	2.8%	4.15	4.15	+0.5
2027	20	MLB	SEA	5	5	25	106	22	14	3	100%	5.0	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	2.8%	5.10	5.00	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	SEA	8	8	39	165	35	20	5	100%	4.9	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	2.8%	4.86	4.74	+0.1
2029	22	MLB	SEA	9	9	47	198	44	22	5	100%	5.2	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	2.7%	4.63	4.48	+0.2
2030	23	MLB	SEA	10	10	52	220	50	22	6	100%	5.2	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.7%	4.43	4.30	+0.3
2031	24	MLB	SEA	10	10	54	228	53	22	6	100%	5.4	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	2.7%	4.28	4.17	+0.4
2032	25	MLB	SEA	10	10	56	236	56	22	6	100%	5.6	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	2.6%	4.17	4.09	+0.5
2033	26	MLB	SEA	10	10	57	241	58	22	6	100%	5.7	24.0%	9.2%	14.8%	2.6%	4.11	4.07	+0.5
2034	27	MLB	SEA	9	9	56	236	57	22	6	100%	6.2	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	2.7%	4.11	4.11	+0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			70	70	385	1624	373	165	44	100%	5.5	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	2.7%	4.39	3.92	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—			37	37	200	844	194	86	23	100%	5.5	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	2.7%	4.39	3.92	+2.3
Career	—			27	14	65	293	42	44	6	52%	2.4	14.3%	15.2%	-0.9%	2.0%	3.86	4.91	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—			83	43	200	897	128	136	18	52%	2.4	14.3%	15.2%	-0.9%	2.0%	3.86	4.91	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erick Lanza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	19.4%	15.3%	3.0%	—	4.77	21.2%	9.2%	159	-0.63	—	—	—
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.01	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.60	2.86	211	86
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	19	SP-	4.27	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.95	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.68	4.27	149	86
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	185	85
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.03	19.3%	-0.6%	83	-0.06	3.98	119	84
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	19	SP-	4.94	17.0%	13.1%	2.9%	.290	5.61	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.67	4.38	190	84
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.11	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.75	4.97	108	83
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.25	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.38	4.87	236	83
Luis Reyes R 2023 · 5.91 FIP	17	SP-	5.91	18.4%	20.7%	3.2%	.333	4.45	17.1%	5.1%	129	-1.46	3.97	167	82
Jaydenn Estanista R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	19	SP-	4.85	18.1%	19.2%	1.6%	.254	5.34	21.0%	2.6%	109	+0.49	4.51	209	82
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	22	SP-	5.64	21.6%	20.4%	3.2%	.275	4.04	23.3%	9.4%	186	-1.60	3.42	209	82
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.35 FIP	19	SP-	5.35	20.3%	17.1%	3.3%	.364	4.22	16.1%	3.1%	122	-1.13	3.29	200	81
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.80	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.49	2.79	161	81
Eliazar Dishmey R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	18	SW	6.06	17.9%	15.1%	4.7%	.302	4.10	21.0%	7.7%	237	-1.96	3.45	280	81
Joseph Hernandez R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	18	SW	5.37	15.6%	15.0%	3.1%	.296	4.54	24.7%	8.0%	31	-0.83	4.54	260	80
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	20	SW	4.72	17.1%	16.6%	1.8%	.309	4.90	17.0%	0.4%	125	+0.18	4.67	178	80
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.33 FIP	20	SP-	5.33	18.2%	14.3%	3.5%	.248	5.50	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.17	5.24	353	79
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.11	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.26	3.16	260	79
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.80 FIP	17	SW	4.80	20.5%	18.9%	1.9%	.250	3.80	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.00	3.26	160	79
Yoniel Curet R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	19	SP-	5.39	21.8%	17.5%	3.5%	.205	3.81	24.0%	7.8%	273	-1.58	3.40	373	79
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	5.63	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.57	3.73	214	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 136 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	52	22.7%	10.5%	1.07	4.51
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93