Dariel Francia — OGILVIE

Dariel Francia P Bradenton Marauders

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%22.1%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	13	6	36	158	46	22	3	46%	2.7	19.8%	17.4%	2.4%	2.7%	3.79	5.09	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	13	6	36	158	46	22	3	46%	2.7	19.8%	17.4%	2.4%	2.7%	3.79	5.09	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	13	6	36	158	46	22	3	46%	2.7	29.1%	13.9%	15.2%	1.9%	3.79	3.46	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	1	34	139	42	16	1	8%	2.8	20.5%	14.4%	6.2%	1.2%	3.48	3.84	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	1	34	139	42	16	1	8%	2.8	20.5%	14.4%	6.2%	1.2%	3.48	3.84	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	12	1	34	139	42	16	1	8%	2.8	30.2%	11.5%	18.7%	0.7%	3.48	2.42	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	32	154	40	26	1	7%	2.1	20.5%	18.9%	1.7%	1.3%	4.50	4.48	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	32	154	40	26	1	7%	2.1	20.5%	18.9%	1.7%	1.3%	4.50	4.48	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	1	32	154	40	26	1	7%	2.1	26.0%	16.9%	9.1%	0.6%	4.50	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	1	45	220	59	49	6	5%	2.0	19.2%	26.0%	-6.8%	3.2%	5.60	6.52	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	1	45	220	59	49	6	5%	2.0	19.2%	26.0%	-6.8%	3.2%	5.60	6.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	PIT	1	0	3	16	6	4	1	0%	3.3	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	6.2%	8.10	6.53	—
2026	20	A RAW	PIT	21	1	42	204	53	45	5	5%	2.0	26.0%	22.1%	3.9%	2.5%	5.40	5.05	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PIT	44	0	46	195	44	27	6	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.6%	9.0%	2.9%	4.96	4.87	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	46	0	49	205	48	25	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.0%	11.5%	2.8%	4.70	4.56	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	PIT	48	0	50	213	52	23	6	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.0%	13.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.34	+0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	PIT	49	0	52	218	54	22	6	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.3%	14.6%	2.8%	4.31	4.20	+0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	PIT	50	0	52	221	56	22	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.8%	15.4%	2.7%	4.18	4.10	+0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	PIT	50	0	52	221	56	22	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	2.7%	4.12	4.08	+0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	PIT	22	0	23	97	22	13	3	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.6%	9.0%	2.9%	4.96	4.87	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	33	0	35	148	35	18	4	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.0%	11.5%	2.8%	4.70	4.56	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	PIT	41	0	43	182	44	20	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.0%	13.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.34	+0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	PIT	44	0	46	194	48	20	5	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.3%	14.6%	2.8%	4.31	4.20	+0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	PIT	46	0	48	203	51	20	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.8%	15.4%	2.7%	4.18	4.10	+0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	PIT	47	0	49	207	53	20	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	2.7%	4.12	4.08	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		232	0	244	1028	252	111	28	0%	1.0	24.5%	10.8%	13.8%	2.8%	4.39	3.91	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	207	91	23	0%	1.1	24.5%	10.8%	13.8%	2.8%	4.39	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		62	9	146	671	134	134	15	15%	2.4	19.9%	19.9%	-0.0%	2.2%	4.43	5.16	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	12	200	917	183	183	20	15%	2.4	19.9%	19.9%	-0.0%	2.2%	4.43	5.16	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dariel Francia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	22.1%	15.6%	2.9%	—	4.58	23.5%	11.4%	145	-0.61	—	—	—
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	86
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	85
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	85
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	84
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	84
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	84
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	84
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	83
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	82
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	408	82
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	82
Joel Ibarra R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	20	SW	4.08	21.4%	13.8%	1.9%	.323	4.74	19.6%	-3.4%	86	+0.66	4.08	155	81
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	81
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	81
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	81
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	81
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	81
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	80
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	80
Connor Bennett R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	20	SU	4.78	24.9%	15.5%	3.3%	.280	3.20	24.8%	14.2%	94	-1.58	2.98	176	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	45	24.2%	11.2%	1.08	4.48
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68