Justin Meis — OGILVIE

Justin Meis P Indianapolis Indians

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%20.3%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	10	0	18	78	27	9	2	0%	1.8	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	2.6%	2.04	4.07	—
2021	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	10	0	18	78	27	9	2	0%	1.8	34.6%	11.5%	23.1%	2.6%	2.04	3.04	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	114	483	116	47	14	88%	4.4	18.2%	11.3%	7.0%	3.0%	4.11	4.64	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	114	483	116	47	14	88%	4.4	24.0%	9.7%	14.3%	2.9%	4.11	3.90	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	29	10	83	369	77	47	13	34%	2.9	16.9%	14.0%	2.9%	3.8%	4.55	5.54	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	29	10	83	369	77	47	13	34%	2.9	16.9%	14.0%	2.9%	3.8%	4.55	5.54	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	29	10	83	369	77	47	13	34%	2.9	20.9%	12.7%	8.1%	3.5%	4.55	4.98	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	37	0	64	293	72	36	9	0%	1.7	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	4.4%	6.44	5.53	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	37	0	64	293	72	36	9	0%	1.7	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	4.4%	6.44	5.53	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	37	0	64	293	72	36	9	0%	1.7	24.6%	12.3%	12.3%	3.1%	6.44	4.36	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	42	0	62	257	67	17	5	0%	1.5	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	2.6%	2.89	3.68	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	42	0	62	257	67	17	5	0%	1.5	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	2.6%	2.89	3.68	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	42	0	62	257	67	17	5	0%	1.5	26.1%	6.6%	19.5%	1.9%	2.89	2.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	46	1	67	292	64	42	6	2%	1.4	18.1%	13.3%	4.8%	2.3%	4.32	4.50	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	46	1	67	292	64	42	6	2%	1.4	18.1%	13.3%	4.8%	2.3%	4.32	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	PIT	9	0	12	53	16	5	0	0%	1.3	30.2%	9.4%	20.8%	0.0%	3.00	1.75	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	PIT	37	1	55	239	48	37	6	3%	1.5	20.1%	15.5%	4.6%	2.5%	4.61	4.74	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	PIT	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.1%	4.70	4.70	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	73	317	69	44	7	—	—	21.8%	14.0%	7.8%	2.1%	4.35	4.51	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	PIT	126	0	132	557	114	53	18	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.67	4.69	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	PIT	122	0	128	540	111	51	18	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.74	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	PIT	116	0	122	516	105	50	17	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.7%	10.7%	3.4%	4.78	4.85	-0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	PIT	109	0	115	485	97	48	17	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	3.6%	4.91	5.01	-0.6
2027	27	MLB CTX	PIT	53	0	56	236	48	22	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.67	4.69	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	PIT	76	0	80	338	69	32	11	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.74	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	PIT	85	0	89	376	76	36	13	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.7%	10.7%	3.4%	4.78	4.85	-0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	PIT	88	0	92	388	78	38	14	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	3.6%	4.91	5.01	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		302	0	317	1340	272	130	45	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.7%	10.6%	3.4%	4.78	4.46	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	82	28	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.7%	10.6%	3.4%	4.78	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		190	34	408	1772	336	214	57	18%	2.1	19.0%	12.1%	6.9%	3.2%	4.32	4.79	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	17	200	869	165	105	28	18%	2.1	19.0%	12.1%	6.9%	3.2%	4.32	4.79	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Meis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	20.3%	9.6%	3.1%	—	4.76	20.4%	10.9%	382	+0.06	—	—	—
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	84
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	78
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	77
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	76
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	76
Justin De Fratus R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	27	SU	3.84	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.61	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.77	3.84	500	76
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	76
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	76
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	75
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	74
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	74
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	74
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	74
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	74
Danny Farquhar R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	28	SU	3.85	22.4%	6.8%	3.2%	.324	3.84	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.01	3.62	224	74
Logan Bawcom R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	15.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.320	4.35	15.9%	6.2%	259	+0.50	3.73	399	73
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	73
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	73
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	73
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	126	20.3%	9.6%	1.27	4.75
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24