Justin Meis — OGILVIE

Justin Meis P Indianapolis Indians

+0.3 WAR

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.8%

IP65

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	10	0	18	78	27	9	2	25.6%	13.6%	2.5%	2.04	4.02	+0.2
2022	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	26	23	114	483	116	47	14	18.2%	11.3%	2.9%	4.11	4.59	+0.9
2023	23	AA	Altoona Curve	29	10	83	369	77	47	13	16.9%	14.0%	3.9%	4.55	5.57	-0.4
2024	24	AA	Altoona Curve	37	0	64	293	72	36	9	19.9%	13.5%	4.2%	6.44	5.42	-0.3
2025	25	AA	Altoona Curve	42	0	62	257	67	17	5	21.1%	7.3%	2.6%	2.89	3.64	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	4	0	7	33	5	5	2	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
ROS	26	MLB	PIT	12	12	65	274	59	26	8	21.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.54	4.54	+0.3
2026 Total	26	MLB	PIT	—	—	72	307	64	31	10	20.8%	10.0%	3.4%	4.75	4.12	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	PIT	12	12	64	272	59	26	8	21.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.3
2028	28	MLB	PIT	12	12	64	268	58	25	8	21.8%	9.4%	3.1%	4.53	4.54	+0.3
2029	29	MLB	PIT	11	11	62	262	57	25	8	21.8%	9.5%	3.2%	4.55	4.58	+0.3
2030	30	MLB	PIT	11	11	60	254	55	24	8	21.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.59	4.63	+0.2
2031	31	MLB	PIT	58	—	58	245	52	24	8	21.4%	9.7%	3.3%	4.66	4.70	+0.2
2032	32	MLB	PIT	56	—	56	236	50	23	8	21.1%	9.8%	3.4%	4.74	4.79	+0.1
2033	33	MLB	PIT	53	—	53	225	47	23	8	20.8%	10.0%	3.5%	4.83	4.89	+0.0
2034	34	MLB	PIT	51	—	51	214	44	22	8	20.4%	10.2%	3.6%	4.93	5.00	-0.0
2035	35	MLB	PIT	48	—	48	201	40	21	7	20.0%	10.4%	3.7%	5.04	5.12	-0.1
2036	36	MLB	PIT	45	—	45	188	37	20	7	19.6%	10.7%	3.8%	5.17	5.26	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			148	33	348	1513	288	180	51	19.0%	11.9%	3.4%	4.37	4.85	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—			85	19	200	870	166	103	29	19.0%	11.9%	3.4%	4.37	4.85	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Meis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	21.5%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.55	21.8%	12.4%	190	+0.01	—	—	—
Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	26	SW	4.05	21.2%	9.4%	2.8%	.295	4.28	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.23	3.34	187	92
Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	26	SW	3.83	20.2%	9.8%	2.2%	.303	4.06	19.2%	12.5%	143	+0.23	3.05	290	90
R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	26	SW	3.90	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.29	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.61	2.45	362	90
Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	26	SW	4.33	22.1%	9.2%	3.5%	.282	3.20	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.13	1.79	618	89
Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	26	SW	3.84	21.6%	8.2%	2.8%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	206	89
Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	26	SW	3.85	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.07	3.23	161	89
Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	26	SW	4.22	23.4%	11.6%	3.0%	.273	4.53	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.31	3.70	187	89
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	26	SW	4.45	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.78	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.65	315	88
Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP	25	SW	4.59	19.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	146	88
Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	26	SW	3.97	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.00	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	1.99	682	88
Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	26	SW	3.52	23.1%	9.3%	2.2%	.244	3.73	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.21	3.18	253	88
Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	19.6%	10.5%	3.9%	.293	4.50	12.8%	-1.5%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	87
Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	26	SW	4.57	18.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	87
Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	2.97	25.1%	15.7%	62	-0.89	2.97	167	87
Easton Sikorski R 2025 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	21.1%	10.6%	3.0%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	159	86
Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.06	3.69	239	86
Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	26	SW	3.79	18.2%	8.7%	2.1%	.266	4.46	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.67	3.75	154	86
Ryan Kelly R 2027 · 3.50 FIP	27	SW	3.50	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.22	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.28	2.49	131	86
Cody Satterwhite R 2028 · 3.72 FIP	28	SW	3.72	20.2%	9.8%	2.0%	.333	4.05	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.70	147	86
Tyler Myrick R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	20.6%	9.8%	2.1%	.307	5.33	13.0%	4.1%	59	+1.59	3.36	204	86

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.