Justin Meis
P
Indianapolis Indians
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 134 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%20.3%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP134
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 177 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 10 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 2.1% | 2.04 | 3.80 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 10 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 34.6% | 11.5% | 23.1% | 2.6% | 2.04 | 3.04 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 114 | 483 | 116 | 47 | 14 | 88% | 4.4 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 4.39 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 114 | 483 | 116 | 47 | 14 | 88% | 4.4 | 24.0% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 3.90 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 29 | 10 | 83 | 369 | 77 | 47 | 13 | 34% | 2.9 | 16.9% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 5.36 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 29 | 10 | 83 | 369 | 77 | 47 | 13 | 34% | 2.9 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.98 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 37 | 0 | 64 | 293 | 72 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.44 | 6.07 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 37 | 0 | 64 | 293 | 72 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.7 | 24.6% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 6.44 | 4.36 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | 42 | 0 | 62 | 257 | 67 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 2.89 | 3.88 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | 42 | 0 | 62 | 257 | 67 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.1% | 6.6% | 19.5% | 1.9% | 2.89 | 2.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 29 | 1 | 43 | 187 | 40 | 30 | 3 | 3% | 1.5 | 18.8% | 16.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 4.15 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | PIT | 128 | 0 | 134 | 566 | 115 | 54 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.79 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 177 | 753 | 155 | 84 | 22 | — | — | 20.6% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.75 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 13 | 57 | 12 | 5 | 2 | — | — | 20.3% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 126 | 0 | 132 | 557 | 114 | 53 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.77 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 122 | 0 | 128 | 540 | 111 | 51 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.81 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 76 | 0 | 80 | 338 | 69 | 32 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 143 | 0 | 150 | 632 | 129 | 60 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.41 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 80 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 34 | 385 | 1667 | 318 | 207 | 54 | 20% | 2.2 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.82 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 18 | 200 | 867 | 165 | 107 | 28 | 20% | 2.2 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Meis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 3.3% | — | 4.79 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 260 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.91 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.00 | 3.91 | 223 | 86 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 79 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 78 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 76 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 75 |
| Jose Pina R 2029 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 75 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 75 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .325 | 4.53 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.65 | 3.88 | 500 | 75 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .298 | 3.09 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -1.00 | 1.97 | 682 | 75 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 75 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .316 | 6.96 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 26 | +3.15 | 3.81 | 233 | 75 |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.95 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.02 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 90 | +0.07 | 2.39 | 167 | 74 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 74 |
| Daniel Blair R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 171 | 73 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .306 | 4.32 | 22.3% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.32 | 4.00 | 512 | 73 |
| Kevin McGowan R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .322 | 5.39 | 15.4% | 4.7% | 64 | +0.55 | 2.93 | 426 | 73 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 73 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 3.81 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.03 | 3.57 | 224 | 73 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.90 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .340 | 4.53 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 286 | -0.37 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 73 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 131 | 20.4% | 9.5% | 1.29 | 4.77 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |