Denny Larrondo — OGILVIE

Denny Larrondo P Visalia Rawhide

+0.1 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2029

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.3%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%9.0%

IP83

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Yankees West	12	9	32	141	24	21	0	11.6%	18.6%	0.0%	5.01	4.48	+0.2
2021	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	11	3	26	114	38	16	2	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	4.56	4.78	+0.0
2023	21	A	Visalia Rawhide	15	13	61	276	68	40	6	17.1%	17.9%	3.2%	4.43	5.68	-0.5
2024	22	A	Visalia Rawhide	23	23	94	422	107	68	7	18.8%	19.0%	2.0%	3.56	4.99	+0.3
2025	23	A+	Hillsboro Hops	20	17	81	358	92	41	8	19.3%	13.3%	2.6%	5.36	4.60	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	ARI	15	15	83	349	74	43	10	21.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.83	4.83	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	ARI	17	17	96	404	88	45	12	21.8%	11.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.64	+0.7
2028	26	MLB	ARI	19	19	103	433	95	47	13	22.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.62	4.59	+0.8
2029	27	MLB	ARI	19	19	106	447	98	48	13	22.0%	10.7%	2.9%	4.59	4.58	+0.9
2030	28	MLB	ARI	19	19	106	448	98	48	13	21.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.59	4.60	+0.8
2031	29	MLB	ARI	19	19	104	438	96	47	13	21.8%	10.8%	3.0%	4.62	4.65	+0.8
2032	30	MLB	ARI	18	18	101	425	92	46	13	21.6%	10.8%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	+0.7
2033	31	MLB	ARI	18	18	97	410	88	45	13	21.4%	11.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.78	+0.5
2034	32	MLB	ARI	17	17	93	394	83	44	13	21.1%	11.1%	3.2%	4.82	4.87	+0.4
2035	33	MLB	ARI	16	16	89	376	78	43	12	20.8%	11.3%	3.3%	4.91	4.97	+0.2
2036	34	MLB	ARI	15	15	85	357	73	41	12	20.4%	11.5%	3.4%	5.01	5.08	+0.1
2037	35	MLB	ARI	14	14	80	337	74	37	12	22.1%	10.9%	3.5%	4.96	4.93	+0.2
2038	36	MLB	ARI	14	14	74	315	68	35	11	21.6%	11.2%	3.6%	5.02	5.06	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			81	65	293	1311	238	224	29	18.1%	17.1%	2.2%	4.48	4.96	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—			55	44	200	894	162	153	20	18.1%	17.1%	2.2%	4.48	4.96	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Denny Larrondo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	21.3%	12.3%	2.9%	—	4.60	21.9%	11.0%	304	-0.23	—	—	—
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP-	4.58	19.0%	12.2%	2.8%	.296	5.08	18.4%	6.8%	57	+0.50	4.27	238	93
Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	89
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	88
Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	88
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	88
Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP-	4.03	19.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.256	3.80	18.2%	4.1%	73	-0.23	3.80	154	87
Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	87
David Lebron R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	25	SP-	4.30	18.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.336	5.70	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.40	4.30	144	87
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP-	5.31	19.4%	12.5%	4.1%	.257	5.24	18.5%	3.9%	104	-0.07	4.38	355	86
J.P. France R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	24	SP-	5.33	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.26	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.07	4.07	530	86
Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	86
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP	24	SP-	5.28	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.42	22.2%	10.9%	274	-0.86	3.98	481	85
Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	85
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	84
Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.45	17.7%	4.3%	141	+1.43	4.02	262	84
Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP-	4.31	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.37	17.8%	9.7%	313	+0.06	2.50	554	84
Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP-	4.09	16.6%	10.0%	2.0%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.30	4.09	171	84
Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	84
Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	24	SP-	4.18	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	3.95	17.0%	8.9%	127	-0.23	3.95	373	84
Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	16.2%	10.3%	3.0%	.290	4.81	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.10	4.71	160	83

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.4M
Totals		$5M		$16M	+$11M