Denny Larrondo — OGILVIE

Denny Larrondo P Visalia Rawhide

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A peak 0.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 122

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%18.7%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%2.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees West	12	9	32	141	24	21	0	75%	2.7	11.6%	18.6%	-7.0%	0.0%	5.01	4.48	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees West	12	9	32	141	24	21	0	75%	2.7	17.0%	14.9%	2.1%	0.0%	5.01	3.56	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	3	26	114	38	16	2	27%	2.3	22.7%	17.5%	5.1%	2.5%	4.56	4.77	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	11	3	26	114	38	16	2	27%	2.3	33.3%	14.0%	19.3%	1.8%	4.56	3.02	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	61	276	68	40	6	87%	4.1	17.1%	17.9%	-0.8%	3.1%	4.43	5.65	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	61	276	68	40	6	87%	4.1	17.1%	17.9%	-0.8%	3.1%	4.43	5.65	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	61	276	68	40	6	87%	4.1	24.6%	14.5%	10.1%	2.2%	4.43	4.12	—
2024	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	23	94	422	107	68	7	100%	4.1	18.8%	19.0%	-0.3%	2.0%	3.56	5.00	—
2024	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	23	94	422	107	68	7	100%	4.1	18.8%	19.0%	-0.3%	2.0%	3.56	5.00	—
2024	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	23	23	94	422	107	68	7	100%	4.1	25.4%	16.1%	9.2%	1.7%	3.56	3.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	81	358	92	41	8	85%	4.0	19.3%	13.3%	6.0%	2.7%	5.36	4.62	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	81	358	92	41	8	85%	4.0	19.3%	13.3%	6.0%	2.7%	5.36	4.62	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	17	81	358	92	41	8	85%	4.0	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	2.2%	5.36	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	ARI	1	1	5	21	4	3	1	100%	5.0	18.7%	16.2%	2.5%	2.9%	5.55	5.55	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	85	361	70	51	10	100%	5.7	19.4%	14.1%	5.3%	2.9%	5.30	5.22	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	85	361	71	49	10	100%	6.1	19.8%	13.6%	6.2%	2.9%	5.17	5.13	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	84	355	71	47	11	100%	6.0	19.9%	13.4%	6.5%	3.0%	5.12	5.12	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	82	345	68	46	11	100%	5.8	19.8%	13.4%	6.4%	3.1%	5.15	5.18	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	78	329	71	42	11	100%	6.0	21.6%	12.8%	8.8%	3.2%	5.09	5.04	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	73	309	66	40	11	100%	6.1	21.2%	13.1%	8.1%	3.4%	5.17	5.22	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	37	156	30	22	5	100%	6.2	19.4%	14.1%	5.3%	2.9%	5.30	5.22	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	57	241	48	33	7	100%	5.7	19.8%	13.6%	6.2%	2.9%	5.17	5.13	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	65	274	55	37	8	100%	5.9	19.9%	13.4%	6.5%	3.0%	5.12	5.12	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	69	291	58	39	9	100%	5.8	19.8%	13.4%	6.4%	3.1%	5.15	5.18	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	68	287	62	37	9	100%	6.2	21.6%	12.8%	8.8%	3.2%	5.09	5.04	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	66	279	59	36	10	100%	6.0	21.2%	13.1%	8.1%	3.4%	5.17	5.22	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	361	1522	310	203	47	100%	6.0	20.4%	13.3%	7.0%	3.1%	5.16	4.77	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	172	113	26	100%	6.0	20.4%	13.3%	7.0%	3.1%	5.16	4.77	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		81	65	293	1311	238	224	29	80%	3.6	18.1%	17.1%	1.1%	2.2%	4.48	4.96	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	44	200	894	162	152	20	80%	3.6	18.1%	17.1%	1.1%	2.2%	4.48	4.96	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Denny Larrondo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	18.7%	16.2%	2.9%	—	5.16	19.7%	6.0%	255	-0.39	—	—	—
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	89
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	85
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.37	18.7%	5.7%	59	+0.72	4.65	194	82
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	81
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	81
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	81
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	80
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	79
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	79
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	79
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	79
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	78
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	78
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.23	18.9%	5.6%	114	-0.63	3.91	263	78
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	79	20.0%	13.7%	1.18	5.21
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10