Joel Ibarra — OGILVIE

Joel Ibarra P Tulsa Drillers

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 176 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 128

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%20.0%

BB%20.6%

K-BB%-0.6%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	18	0	23	100	31	13	1	0%	1.3	21.1%	16.2%	4.8%	1.4%	5.16	4.13	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	18	0	23	100	31	13	1	0%	1.3	31.0%	13.0%	18.0%	1.0%	5.16	2.66	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	4	37	165	50	19	3	21%	1.9	21.4%	13.8%	7.6%	1.9%	4.17	4.08	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	4	37	165	50	19	3	21%	1.9	30.3%	11.5%	18.8%	1.8%	4.17	2.99	—
2023	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	38	2	61	259	71	49	2	5%	1.6	20.3%	22.3%	-2.0%	1.0%	2.64	4.75	—
2023	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	38	2	61	259	71	49	2	5%	1.6	20.3%	22.3%	-2.0%	1.0%	2.64	4.75	—
2023	21	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	38	2	61	259	71	49	2	5%	1.6	27.4%	18.9%	8.5%	0.8%	2.64	3.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	9	54	13	16	3	0%	0.7	24.1%	29.6%	-5.6%	5.6%	17.65	7.87	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	9	54	13	16	3	0%	0.7	24.1%	29.6%	-5.6%	5.6%	17.65	7.87	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	9	54	13	16	3	0%	0.7	24.1%	29.6%	-5.6%	5.6%	17.65	10.14	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	28	0	25	122	28	26	0	0%	0.9	17.7%	24.5%	-6.8%	0.0%	5.47	4.71	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	28	0	25	122	28	26	0	0%	0.9	17.7%	24.5%	-6.8%	0.0%	5.47	4.71	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	28	0	25	122	28	26	0	0%	0.9	23.0%	21.3%	1.6%	0.0%	5.47	3.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	18	0	16	93	15	28	1	0%	0.9	16.5%	42.9%	-26.4%	2.0%	9.56	8.26	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	18	0	16	93	15	28	1	0%	0.9	16.5%	42.9%	-26.4%	2.0%	9.56	8.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	LAD	6	0	6	34	3	5	0	0%	1.1	8.8%	14.7%	-5.9%	0.0%	11.37	4.22	—
2026	24	AA RAW	LAD	12	0	10	59	12	23	1	0%	0.8	20.3%	39.0%	-18.6%	1.7%	8.38	7.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAD	21	0	22	95	20	17	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	17.4%	3.5%	2.7%	5.53	5.40	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAD	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	17.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.59	5.46	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.1	20.9%	17.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.59	5.08	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	142	20	0%	1.1	20.9%	17.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.59	5.08	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		133	6	170	793	159	183	12	5%	1.3	20.0%	23.0%	-3.0%	1.5%	5.14	5.15	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	7	200	933	187	215	14	5%	1.3	20.0%	23.0%	-3.0%	1.5%	5.14	5.15	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Ibarra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	20.0%	20.6%	2.7%	—	5.40	20.9%	3.5%	22	-0.47	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	88
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	85
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	84
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	83
Jack Hartman R 2022 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	15.1%	20.3%	2.5%	.357	3.99	19.5%	8.6%	143	-1.79	3.46	161	83
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	82
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	81
Alec Hansen R 2019 · 5.74 FIP	24	SU	5.74	18.8%	19.8%	3.1%	.349	4.98	29.5%	-5.0%	22	-0.76	3.34	288	81
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	81
Will McAffer R 2021 · 6.40 FIP	24	SU	6.40	21.5%	24.2%	3.7%	.343	5.37	14.5%	-5.7%	33	-1.03	4.68	133	81
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	81
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	81
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	81
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	80
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	80
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	80
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	80
Yoel Espinal R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	21.4%	23.1%	2.1%	.255	4.24	22.9%	10.0%	99	-1.13	3.86	231	80
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	79
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	79