Joel Ibarra
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 176 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 18 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
K%22.2%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%9.3%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Dodgers Shoemaker | 18 | 0 | 23 | 100 | 31 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 16.2% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 5.16 | 4.11 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Dodgers Shoemaker | 18 | 0 | 23 | 100 | 31 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.0% | 13.0% | 18.0% | 1.0% | 5.16 | 2.66 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 4 | 37 | 165 | 50 | 19 | 3 | 21% | 1.9 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 4.17 | 3.90 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 4 | 37 | 165 | 50 | 19 | 3 | 21% | 1.9 | 30.3% | 11.5% | 18.8% | 1.8% | 4.17 | 2.99 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 38 | 2 | 61 | 259 | 71 | 49 | 2 | 5% | 1.6 | 20.3% | 22.3% | -2.0% | 1.0% | 2.64 | 4.74 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 38 | 2 | 61 | 259 | 71 | 49 | 2 | 5% | 1.6 | 27.4% | 18.9% | 8.5% | 0.8% | 2.64 | 3.61 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 9 | 54 | 13 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 0.7 | 24.1% | 29.6% | -5.6% | 5.6% | 17.65 | 7.87 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 9 | 54 | 13 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 0.7 | 24.1% | 29.6% | -5.6% | 5.6% | 17.65 | 10.14 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 28 | 0 | 25 | 122 | 28 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.7% | 24.5% | -6.8% | 0.0% | 5.47 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 28 | 0 | 25 | 122 | 28 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.0% | 21.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 5.47 | 3.99 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 17 | 0 | 16 | 88 | 15 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.5% | 42.9% | -26.4% | 2.0% | 7.47 | 8.26 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 0 | 18 | 75 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.2% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.66 | 4.66 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 33 | 163 | 32 | 36 | 3 | — | — | 19.4% | 21.9% | -2.4% | 1.8% | 6.00 | 6.37 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.2% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.66 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.10 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 88 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 132 | 6 | 170 | 788 | 158 | 180 | 11 | 5% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 22.9% | -2.8% | 1.4% | 4.93 | 5.09 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 7 | 200 | 929 | 186 | 213 | 13 | 5% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 22.9% | -2.8% | 1.4% | 4.93 | 5.09 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Ibarra (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.52 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 20 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 90 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 88 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 88 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 87 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 87 |
| Jay Driver R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 135 | 87 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 86 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 86 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 86 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 86 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 85 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 20.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .298 | 3.84 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 90 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 186 | 85 |
| Colin McKee R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.08 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.37 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.71 | 4.10 | 148 | 85 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 85 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 104 | 85 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 84 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 84 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 84 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 84 |