Joel Garcia — OGILVIE

Joel Garcia P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%16.7%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	2	31	144	39	15	2	18%	2.8	18.4%	13.0%	5.4%	1.9%	4.88	4.26	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	2	31	144	39	15	2	18%	2.8	18.4%	13.0%	5.4%	1.9%	4.88	4.26	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	2	31	144	39	15	2	18%	2.8	27.1%	10.4%	16.7%	1.4%	4.88	2.88	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	6	5	18	68	16	0	1	83%	3.0	16.0%	0.0%	16.0%	2.3%	1.50	3.02	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	6	5	18	68	16	0	1	83%	3.0	16.0%	0.0%	16.0%	2.3%	1.50	3.02	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	6	5	18	68	16	0	1	83%	3.0	23.5%	0.0%	23.5%	1.5%	1.50	2.04	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	54	245	60	19	4	100%	3.6	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	2.3%	6.13	4.16	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	54	245	60	19	4	100%	3.6	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	2.3%	6.13	4.16	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	54	245	60	19	4	100%	3.6	24.5%	7.8%	16.7%	1.6%	6.13	2.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	7	36	9	3	0	100%	3.7	—	—	—	—	6.14	—	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	7	36	9	3	0	100%	3.7	—	—	—	—	6.14	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	MIN	2	2	7	36	9	3	0	100%	3.6	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.14	2.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	54	230	42	20	7	100%	5.5	18.4%	8.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.71	4.65	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	56	236	46	20	7	100%	5.6	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	2.9%	4.59	4.53	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	57	239	47	20	7	100%	5.7	19.9%	8.3%	11.5%	2.9%	4.51	4.46	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	57	239	48	20	7	100%	6.3	20.2%	8.3%	11.9%	2.9%	4.46	4.43	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	56	236	47	20	7	100%	6.2	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	+0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	27	114	21	10	3	100%	5.4	18.4%	8.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.66	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	39	165	32	14	5	100%	5.6	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	2.9%	4.60	4.54	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	46	194	39	16	6	100%	5.8	19.9%	8.3%	11.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.47	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	49	207	42	17	6	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.3%	11.9%	2.9%	4.47	4.44	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	50	211	43	18	6	100%	6.2	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	36	212	893	176	75	26	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.4%	11.3%	3.0%	4.54	4.12	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	166	71	25	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.4%	11.3%	3.0%	4.54	4.12	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		34	24	111	493	88	45	10	71%	3.3	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	2.0%	5.03	3.88	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	43	200	888	158	81	18	71%	3.3	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	2.0%	5.03	3.88	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	16.7%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.55	19.2%	10.7%	167	-0.31	—	—	—
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	88
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	86
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	85
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	85
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	84
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	83
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Manuel Espinoza R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP-	4.42	17.7%	9.7%	2.9%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	275	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	82
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	82
Nick Krauth R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	22	SP-	4.64	14.4%	8.9%	3.0%	.297	4.74	12.5%	2.5%	232	+0.10	4.50	424	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	81
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	81
Endrys Briceno R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	12.7%	7.7%	1.2%	.312	4.63	12.6%	-0.0%	203	+0.96	3.67	303	81
Miguel Almonte R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.41	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.53	3.06	247	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	55	19.1%	8.5%	1.14	4.60
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43