Joel Garcia
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 22
RHP
5'10" / 165 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION7 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131121vR 112
ERA4.94
FIP4.94
K%16.7%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%7.2%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Twins | 11 | 2 | 31 | 144 | 39 | 15 | 2 | 18% | 2.8 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 4.88 | 4.26 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Twins | 11 | 2 | 31 | 144 | 39 | 15 | 2 | 18% | 2.8 | 27.1% | 10.4% | 16.7% | 1.4% | 4.88 | 2.88 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 6 | 5 | 18 | 68 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 83% | 3.0 | 16.0% | 0.0% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 1.50 | 3.20 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 6 | 5 | 18 | 68 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 83% | 3.0 | 23.5% | 0.0% | 23.5% | 1.5% | 1.50 | 2.04 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 54 | 245 | 60 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 3.6 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 6.13 | 4.29 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 54 | 245 | 60 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 3.6 | 24.5% | 7.8% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 6.13 | 2.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 2 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | — | — | — | — | 6.14 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 52 | 222 | 37 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.95 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 60 | 258 | 46 | 24 | 7 | — | — | 17.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 5.09 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 54 | 230 | 42 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 36 | 36 | 212 | 893 | 176 | 77 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.17 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 73 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 34 | 24 | 111 | 493 | 88 | 45 | 11 | 71% | 3.3 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 5.03 | 3.96 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 43 | 200 | 888 | 158 | 81 | 20 | 71% | 3.3 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 5.03 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.60 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 167 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 89 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 89 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 89 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 88 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 85 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.03 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% | .323 | 5.65 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 122 | +0.62 | 4.72 | 200 | 85 |
| Michael Ross R 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 85 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 84 |
| Jeremy Lee R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .318 | 5.28 | 11.2% | -0.5% | 46 | +1.22 | 4.06 | 125 | 84 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.22 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .293 | 5.23 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 157 | +1.01 | 3.46 | 246 | 83 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 83 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 83 |
| Nick Dean R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 82 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 82 |
| Manuel Espinoza R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 275 | 82 |
| Mac Sceroler R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.46 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.22 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 200 | -0.24 | 3.81 | 275 | 82 |
| Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 82 |
| Nick Krauth R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .297 | 4.74 | 12.5% | 2.5% | 232 | +0.26 | 4.44 | 424 | 82 |
| Michael Matuella R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 13.5% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.37 | 16.5% | 3.4% | 94 | +0.11 | 3.60 | 169 | 82 |
| Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 1.15 | 4.65 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |