Joel Garcia

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1157ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKMIN	6	5	18	1.50	2.04	23.5%	0.0%	—	K 16.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP 3.02
2025	21	MIX2 levels	15	15	54	6.13	2.90	24.5%	7.8%	—	K 16.9% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.16
2026	22	AMIN	2	2	7	6.14	1.87	25.0%	8.3%	—	K 25.0% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.04
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.77	4.77	17.8%	9.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIN	5	5	26	4.67	4.63	19.0%	8.8%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIN	6	6	33	4.58	4.54	19.7%	8.6%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 3.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsTanner Hall (age 22) · Nick Fraze (age 23) · Andrew Quezada (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%17.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	2	31	144	39	15	2	18%	2.8	18.4%	13.0%	5.4%	1.9%	4.88	4.26	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	2	31	144	39	15	2	18%	2.8	27.1%	10.4%	16.7%	1.4%	4.88	2.88	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	6	5	18	68	16	0	1	83%	3.0	16.0%	0.0%	16.0%	2.3%	1.50	3.02	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	6	5	18	68	16	0	1	83%	3.0	16.0%	0.0%	16.0%	2.3%	1.50	3.02	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	6	5	18	68	16	0	1	83%	3.0	23.5%	0.0%	23.5%	1.5%	1.50	2.04	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	54	245	60	19	4	100%	3.6	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	2.3%	6.13	4.16	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	54	245	60	19	4	100%	3.6	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	2.3%	6.13	4.16	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	54	245	60	19	4	100%	3.6	24.5%	7.8%	16.7%	1.6%	6.13	2.90	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	7	36	9	3	0	100%	3.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.14	2.04	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	7	36	9	3	0	100%	3.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.14	2.04	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	7	36	9	3	0	100%	3.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.14	1.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.8%	9.1%	8.8%	3.0%	4.77	4.77	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	62	260	49	23	8	100%	5.6	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.62	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	49	208	41	18	6	100%	6.2	19.7%	8.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.53	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	49	206	41	18	6	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.50	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	47	200	40	17	6	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.7%	11.5%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	26	110	21	10	3	100%	5.2	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.63	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	33	139	27	12	4	100%	5.5	19.7%	8.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.58	4.54	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	39	165	33	14	5	100%	6.5	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.53	4.51	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	40	169	34	15	5	100%	5.7	20.2%	8.7%	11.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		23	23	138	582	115	50	17	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.17	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	167	73	25	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.17	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		34	24	111	493	88	45	10	71%	3.3	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	2.0%	5.03	3.88	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	43	200	888	158	81	18	71%	3.3	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	2.0%	5.03	3.88	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 7 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.78 (+0.74)K% 25.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.740	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Twins · 43 IPFIP 1.84 → 2.95 (+1.11)K% 28.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.81%	—	×0.680	19.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.250	8.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.006	×1.400	0.79%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.84 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 11 IPFIP 5.71 → 7.32 (+1.61)K% 13.2% → 9.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.24%	—	×0.740	9.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.180	12.15%
HR / BF /BF	4.41%	÷0.898	×1.300	6.39%

Result: FIP 5.71 → 7.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Twins · 18 IPFIP 1.92 → 3.02 (+1.10)K% 23.5% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.680	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷0.890	×1.400	2.31%

Result: FIP 1.92 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Twins · 31 IPFIP 2.89 → 4.26 (+1.36)K% 27.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.08%	—	×0.680	18.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.250	13.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.003	×1.400	1.94%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	17.8%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.56	19.5%	10.9%	160	-0.21	—	—	—
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	90
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	87
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	86
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	86
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	85
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	84
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	84
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.84	16.4%	2.8%	184	+1.25	3.59	281	83
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	83
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	83
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	82
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	19.3%	8.8%	1.16	4.62
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*