Cale Lansville — OGILVIE

Cale Lansville P Eugene Emeralds

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 212 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%15.9%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	11	53	14	4	1	50%	1.8	26.4%	7.5%	18.9%	1.9%	4.09	2.86	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	11	53	14	4	1	50%	1.8	26.4%	7.5%	18.9%	1.9%	4.09	2.86	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	3	11	53	14	4	1	50%	1.8	26.4%	7.5%	18.9%	1.9%	4.09	2.83	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	77	352	72	24	5	73%	3.5	15.1%	7.7%	7.4%	2.0%	4.32	3.90	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	77	352	72	24	5	73%	3.5	15.1%	7.7%	7.4%	2.0%	4.32	3.90	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	16	77	352	72	24	5	73%	3.5	20.5%	6.8%	13.6%	1.4%	4.32	3.01	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	5	38	183	31	20	4	45%	3.5	12.8%	12.7%	0.0%	2.6%	7.04	5.07	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	5	38	183	31	20	4	45%	3.5	12.8%	12.7%	0.0%	2.6%	7.04	5.07	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	5	38	183	31	20	4	45%	3.5	16.9%	10.9%	6.0%	2.2%	7.04	4.40	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	SF	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	15.9%	10.2%	5.8%	2.9%	5.02	5.02	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	71	300	54	29	9	100%	5.5	18.0%	9.6%	8.5%	2.9%	4.83	4.76	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	72	304	58	28	9	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	2.9%	4.68	4.60	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	72	304	61	28	9	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.55	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	71	299	60	28	9	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	69	290	58	27	9	100%	6.2	19.9%	9.4%	10.5%	3.0%	4.63	4.66	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	66	277	54	27	9	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.6%	10.0%	3.2%	4.73	4.79	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	62	261	50	26	9	100%	6.2	19.3%	9.9%	9.3%	3.4%	4.88	4.97	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	5	5	30	127	23	12	3	100%	6.0	18.0%	9.6%	8.5%	2.7%	4.71	4.64	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	48	203	39	19	5	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	2.7%	4.56	4.48	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	57	241	48	22	6	100%	5.7	19.9%	9.2%	10.8%	2.7%	4.48	4.43	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	60	253	51	23	7	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.3%	10.8%	2.7%	4.46	4.46	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	61	258	51	24	7	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.4%	10.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.53	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	60	253	50	24	7	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.6%	10.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.66	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	57	241	46	24	8	100%	5.7	19.3%	9.9%	9.3%	3.1%	4.74	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	373	1574	308	149	44	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.5%	10.1%	2.8%	4.57	4.19	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	165	80	24	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.5%	10.1%	2.8%	4.57	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		39	24	126	588	90	54	13	62%	3.2	15.4%	9.2%	6.1%	2.2%	5.13	4.17	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	38	200	931	143	86	20	62%	3.2	15.4%	9.2%	6.1%	2.2%	5.13	4.17	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cale Lansville (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	15.9%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.64	19.1%	9.8%	215	-0.38	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	89
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	81
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	80
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	80
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	80
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	79
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	79
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	79
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	79
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	78
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	78
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	78
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	78
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	78
Mitchell Traver R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SP-	5.56	11.9%	9.7%	4.1%	.392	5.21	14.3%	3.7%	82	-0.35	5.21	104	78
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	64	19.2%	9.5%	1.17	4.72
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41