Cale Lansville
P
Eugene Emeralds
+0.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 212 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.3%
IP43
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | A | San Jose Giants | 6 | 3 | 11 | 53 | 14 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.09 | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | San Jose Giants | 22 | 16 | 77 | 352 | 72 | 24 | 5 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 4.32 | 3.93 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 11 | 5 | 38 | 183 | 31 | 20 | 4 | 12.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 7.04 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | SF | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SF | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SF | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SF | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SF | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SF | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SF | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | SF | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | SF | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | SF | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | SF | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | SF | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 24 | 126 | 588 | 90 | 54 | 13 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 5.13 | 4.19 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 38 | 200 | 931 | 142 | 85 | 21 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 5.13 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cale Lansville (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.40 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 133 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 96 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 93 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 92 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 91 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 91 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 91 |
| Matt Pidich R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.09 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.33 | 4.07 | 196 | 90 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.37 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.86 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 412 | 90 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 89 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.64 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .246 | 3.81 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 169 | +0.17 | 2.90 | 215 | 89 |
| Josh Advocate R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 3.68 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 118 | 89 |
| Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 89 |
| Joey Stock R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.00 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 95 | +1.52 | 3.48 | 121 | 89 |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.34 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.30 | 4.04 | 287 | 88 |
| Jayson McKinley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .308 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 134 | -0.80 | 2.36 | 173 | 88 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 88 |
| Todd Peterson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.82 | 15.0% | 4.3% | 124 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 175 | 88 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 88 |
| Roman Mendez R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||