Jordy Luciano — OGILVIE

Jordy Luciano P Tampa Tarpons

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 160 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.69

FIP5.69

K%20.4%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%2.0%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	15	0	24	112	41	20	2	0%	1.6	24.9%	22.3%	2.6%	2.1%	4.50	4.97	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	15	0	24	112	41	20	2	0%	1.6	36.6%	17.9%	18.7%	1.8%	4.50	3.27	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	0	25	131	29	26	1	0%	2.1	15.1%	24.8%	-9.8%	0.8%	5.40	5.40	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	0	25	131	29	26	1	0%	2.1	15.1%	24.8%	-9.8%	0.8%	5.40	5.40	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	12	0	25	131	29	26	1	0%	2.1	22.1%	19.8%	2.3%	0.8%	5.40	4.42	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	64	295	73	48	4	0%	1.7	18.0%	20.6%	-2.6%	2.0%	4.95	5.30	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	64	295	73	48	4	0%	1.7	18.0%	20.6%	-2.6%	2.0%	4.95	5.30	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	64	295	73	48	4	0%	1.7	24.7%	16.3%	8.5%	1.4%	4.95	3.89	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	NYY	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	20.4%	18.4%	2.0%	2.9%	5.69	5.69	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYY	55	0	57	242	51	42	7	0%	1.0	21.0%	17.4%	3.5%	2.9%	5.53	5.52	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	54	0	56	238	50	40	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	16.9%	4.2%	3.0%	5.46	5.47	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYY	23	0	24	101	21	18	3	0%	1.0	21.0%	17.4%	3.5%	2.9%	5.53	5.52	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	33	0	35	148	31	25	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	16.9%	4.2%	3.0%	5.46	5.47	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	253	53	43	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	17.1%	4.0%	3.0%	5.49	5.11	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	144	23	0%	1.1	21.1%	17.1%	4.0%	3.0%	5.49	5.11	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		65	0	113	538	101	118	9	0%	1.7	18.7%	22.0%	-3.3%	1.7%	4.95	5.26	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	0	200	955	179	210	17	0%	1.7	18.7%	22.0%	-3.3%	1.7%	4.95	5.26	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordy Luciano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.69	20.4%	18.4%	2.9%	—	5.50	21.0%	3.9%	114	-0.19	—	—	—
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	86
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	86
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	85
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	85
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	84
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	84
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	83
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	83
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	83
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	82
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	82
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	82
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	82
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	81
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	81
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	81
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	81
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	20.9%	17.4%	1.14	5.54
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91