Jordy Luciano

P Tampa Tarpons

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 160 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	21	ROKDSL NYY Yanke…	15	0	24	4.50	3.27	36.6%	17.9%	—	K 24.9% · BB 22.3% · FIP 4.97
2023	22	ROKNYY	12	0	25	5.40	4.42	22.1%	19.8%	—	K 15.1% · BB 24.8% · FIP 5.40
2024	23	MIX2 levels	38	0	64	4.95	3.89	24.7%	16.3%	—	K 18.0% · BB 20.6% · FIP 5.30
2025	24	No MLB games played
2026	25	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	26	MLBNYY	—	—	0	5.12	5.12	22.0%	14.7%	—
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBNYY	10	0	11	5.06	5.07	22.1%	14.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsSam Gardner (age 26) · Nick Ernst (age 25) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%22.0%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	15	0	24	112	41	20	2	0%	1.6	24.9%	22.3%	2.6%	2.1%	4.50	4.97	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	15	0	24	112	41	20	2	0%	1.6	36.6%	17.9%	18.7%	1.8%	4.50	3.27	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	0	25	131	29	26	1	0%	2.1	15.1%	24.8%	-9.8%	0.8%	5.40	5.40	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	12	0	25	131	29	26	1	0%	2.1	22.1%	19.8%	2.3%	0.8%	5.40	4.42	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	64	295	73	48	4	0%	1.7	18.0%	20.6%	-2.6%	2.0%	4.95	5.30	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	64	295	73	48	4	0%	1.7	18.0%	20.6%	-2.6%	2.0%	4.95	5.30	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	64	295	73	48	4	0%	1.7	24.7%	16.3%	8.5%	1.4%	4.95	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	14.7%	7.3%	3.0%	5.12	5.12	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	28	0	29	123	27	18	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.2%	7.9%	3.0%	5.06	5.07	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	10	0	11	46	10	7	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.2%	7.9%	3.0%	5.06	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	10	6	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.2%	7.9%	3.0%	5.06	4.69	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	113	19	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.2%	7.9%	3.0%	5.06	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		65	0	113	538	101	118	9	0%	1.7	18.7%	22.0%	-3.3%	1.7%	4.95	5.26	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	0	200	955	179	210	17	0%	1.7	18.7%	22.0%	-3.3%	1.7%	4.95	5.26	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 55 IPFIP 4.10 → 5.30 (+1.21)K% 24.3% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.33%	—	×0.740	18.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.49%	—	×1.180	20.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.979	×1.300	2.02%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 4.10 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Yankees · 9 IPFIP 1.52 → 2.47 (+0.96)K% 28.1% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.680	19.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.250	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.142	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 1.52 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 25 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.40 (+1.23)K% 22.1% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.14%	—	×0.680	15.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.85%	—	×1.250	24.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷1.383	×1.400	0.77%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL NYY Yankees · 24 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.97 (+1.72)K% 36.6% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.61%	—	×0.680	24.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.86%	—	×1.250	22.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.195	×1.400	2.09%

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordy Luciano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	22.0%	14.7%	3.0%	—	5.07	22.1%	7.9%	29	-0.05	—	—	—
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	90
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	84
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	84
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	83
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	83
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	83
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	83
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	82
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	82
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	82
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	82
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	82
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	82
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	22.1%	14.5%	1.16	5.09
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*