Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Braves | 8 | 0 | 9 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 16.3% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 6.23 | 3.39 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Braves | 8 | 0 | 9 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 16.3% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 6.23 | 3.45 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 2 | 35 | 160 | 48 | 17 | 3 | 12% | 2.2 | 21.4% | 13.7% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 5.40 | 4.14 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 2 | 35 | 160 | 48 | 17 | 3 | 12% | 2.2 | 30.0% | 10.6% | 19.4% | 1.9% | 5.40 | 2.93 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 58 | 276 | 79 | 24 | 8 | 6% | 1.8 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 5.90 | 3.67 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 58 | 276 | 79 | 24 | 8 | 6% | 1.8 | 28.6% | 8.7% | 19.9% | 2.9% | 5.90 | 3.41 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | 20 | 7 | 59 | 256 | 60 | 30 | 1 | 35% | 3.0 | 18.0% | 13.5% | 4.6% | 0.5% | 2.29 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | 20 | 7 | 59 | 256 | 60 | 30 | 1 | 35% | 3.0 | 23.4% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.4% | 2.29 | 2.81 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 51 | 217 | 75 | 22 | 3 | 3% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 11.4% | 14.7% | 1.7% | 4.24 | 3.27 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 51 | 217 | 75 | 22 | 3 | 3% | 1.3 | 34.6% | 10.1% | 24.4% | 1.4% | 4.24 | 2.22 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 3 | 64 | 277 | 64 | 38 | 7 | 7% | 1.4 | 19.4% | 14.0% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.39 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 3 | 64 | 277 | 64 | 38 | 7 | 7% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 13.7% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 3.39 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 28 | 0 | 35 | 156 | 48 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.5% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 3.57 | 3.79 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ATL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 47 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 14.5% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ATL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 47 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 14.5% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 80 | 346 | 95 | 48 | 9 | — | — | 27.5% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 47 | 198 | 95 | 48 | 9 | — | — | 47.9% | 24.0% | 23.9% | 4.7% | 7.26 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 72 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 69 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 69 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 66 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 170 | 0 | 180 | 768 | 189 | 110 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.51 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 855 | 210 | 122 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 186 | 15 | 311 | 1385 | 300 | 172 | 26 | 8% | 1.7 | 21.6% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 1.9% | 4.11 | 3.90 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 10 | 200 | 892 | 193 | 111 | 17 | 8% | 1.7 | 21.6% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 1.9% | 4.11 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rolddy Muñoz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 24.8% | 14.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 136 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 81 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 79 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 79 |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 78 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.67 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 172 | 78 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.21 | 13.5% | -4.3% | 15 | -0.15 | 3.58 | 169 | 78 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 78 |
| Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.63 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 35 | +0.54 | 2.53 | 233 | 77 |
| Morris Austin R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.05 | 22.3% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 164 | 77 |
| Logan Boyer R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.65 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .267 | 4.98 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.33 | 3.65 | 121 | 77 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.60 | 24.0% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .225 | 5.38 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 78 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 158 | 76 |
| Justin Evans R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 1.5% | .323 | 4.80 | 16.4% | -7.9% | 14 | +1.07 | 3.73 | 105 | 76 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 76 |
| Jackson Goddard R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.14 | 21.1% | 14.3% | 1.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 149 | 76 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 76 |
| Layne Henderson R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.94 | 24.9% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .277 | 4.63 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 82 | +0.69 | 3.91 | 233 | 76 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 75 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 75 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .306 | 3.61 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.24 | 2.88 | 157 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 1.13 | 4.77 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |