Luis Fragoza — OGILVIE

Luis FragozaOF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 19 R/R 6'1" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION184 act + 122 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .288 / .358

PA122

HR3

K%29

BB%6

BABIP299

ISO134

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$12M		$27M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	157	127	24	4	1	1	13	50	16	21	3	189	340	260	600	71	299	32	8	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	157	116	30	5	1	1	22	35	16	21	3	259	436	345	781	86	358	22	14	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	169	144	22	6	0	1	11	58	12	14	3	153	269	215	485	62	241	34	7	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	169	138	30	8	0	1	17	40	12	14	3	217	353	297	650	80	293	24	10	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	MIN	—	184	169	45	13	0	8	8	64	7	12	1	266	326	485	811	219	381	35	4	337	116	+3	+2	+0	-1	+5	1.0
YTD	19	A	MIN	—	184	166	55	16	0	10	11	45	7	12	1	331	397	608	1.005	277	405	24	6	437	193	+19	+2	+0	-1	+5	2.6
ROS	19	A	MIN	0%	122	111	25	6	0	3	7	36	3	4	1	224	288	358	646	134	299	29	6	286	77	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.0
ROS	19	MLB	MIN	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		299	—	—	266	62	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	A	MIN	—	184	170	45	13	0	8	8	64	7	12	1	265	326	482	808	218	378	35	4	337	116	+3	+2	+0	-1	+5	1.0
TOT	19	A	MIN	—	306	280	70	19	0	11	15	100	10	16	2	249	311	435	745	185	346	33	5	317	100	+0	+2	+0	-2	+9	1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	MIN	34%	321	291	65	15	1	7	19	90	8	8	1	223	289	354	643	131	297	28	6	291	81	-7	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.1
2028	21	MLB	MIN	48%	425	385	88	20	2	10	26	116	11	11	2	229	296	369	665	140	297	27	6	297	86	-7	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.4
2029	22	MLB	MIN	54%	495	449	103	23	2	12	31	133	12	13	2	229	297	370	666	140	298	27	6	302	89	-6	+2	+0	-3	+14	0.7
2030	23	MLB	MIN	57%	538	485	113	25	2	14	35	143	13	14	2	233	302	379	681	146	299	27	7	305	92	-5	+2	+0	-3	+15	0.9
2031	24	MLB	MIN	57%	566	510	120	27	2	15	37	149	14	15	2	235	305	384	689	149	299	26	7	307	93	-4	+2	+0	-3	+16	1.1
2032	25	MLB	MIN	60%	582	525	123	27	2	16	38	153	14	15	3	234	303	385	688	150	299	26	7	308	94	-4	+2	+0	-3	+16	1.1
2033	26	MLB	MIN	62%	588	529	125	28	2	16	39	155	15	15	3	236	307	388	695	151	299	26	7	309	94	-4	+2	+0	-4	+17	1.1
2034	27	MLB	MIN	63%	588	529	124	27	2	16	39	155	15	15	3	234	305	384	689	149	299	26	7	309	94	-4	+2	+0	-4	+17	1.1
2035	28	MLB	MIN	65%	583	524	123	27	2	16	40	154	14	14	2	235	306	385	692	151	298	26	7	308	94	-4	+2	-1	-3	+17	1.0
2036	29	MLB	MIN	65%	573	515	119	26	2	15	39	153	14	13	2	231	303	377	680	146	298	27	7	306	92	-5	+2	-1	-3	+16	0.8
2037	30	MLB	MIN	65%	562	504	116	26	2	14	39	151	14	12	2	230	303	373	676	143	296	27	7	303	90	-6	+2	-2	-3	+16	0.6
2038	31	MLB	MIN	65%	548	492	113	25	2	14	38	149	13	10	2	230	302	374	676	144	294	27	7	299	87	-8	+1	-3	-3	+16	0.2
2039	32	MLB	MIN	65%	529	475	107	23	2	13	36	146	13	8	1	225	298	364	662	139	290	28	7	293	82	-11	+1	-4	-3	+15	-0.1
2027	20	MLB	MIN	34%	110	100	21	5	0	2	6	31	3	3	0	210	275	320	595	110	297	28	5	272	66	-4	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	MIN	48%	206	186	43	10	1	5	13	56	5	5	1	231	299	376	675	145	298	27	6	279	72	-7	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	MIN	54%	268	242	57	13	1	7	17	72	7	7	1	236	305	384	689	149	298	27	6	284	76	-7	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.0
2030	23	MLB	MIN	57%	305	274	64	14	1	8	20	81	8	8	1	234	305	380	684	146	299	27	7	288	78	-8	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.1
2031	24	MLB	MIN	57%	320	288	68	15	1	9	21	84	8	8	1	236	306	389	695	153	300	26	7	289	80	-7	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.1
2032	25	MLB	MIN	60%	351	316	73	16	1	9	23	92	9	9	2	231	302	373	675	142	300	26	7	290	80	-8	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.1
2033	26	MLB	MIN	62%	367	331	77	17	1	10	24	96	9	10	2	233	302	381	683	148	299	26	7	291	81	-8	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.1
2034	27	MLB	MIN	63%	373	336	78	17	1	10	25	98	9	10	2	232	303	378	681	146	299	26	7	291	81	-8	+1	+0	-2	+11	0.1
2035	28	MLB	MIN	65%	379	341	80	18	1	10	26	100	9	9	2	235	306	381	687	147	299	26	7	290	80	-9	+1	-0	-2	+11	0.0
2036	29	MLB	MIN	65%	372	335	78	17	1	10	25	99	9	9	1	233	304	379	683	146	298	27	7	288	79	-9	+1	-1	-2	+11	-0.0
2037	30	MLB	MIN	65%	365	328	75	17	1	9	25	98	9	8	1	229	301	369	670	140	296	27	7	285	76	-10	+1	-1	-2	+10	-0.2
2038	31	MLB	MIN	65%	356	320	73	16	1	9	24	97	9	6	1	228	300	369	669	141	294	27	7	281	73	-11	+1	-2	-2	+10	-0.4
2039	32	MLB	MIN	65%	344	310	69	15	1	8	23	95	8	5	1	223	293	355	648	132	290	28	7	276	69	-12	+1	-2	-2	+10	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4116	3708	856	190	12	106	272	1099	102	97	16	231	301	374	676	143	297	27	7	286	77	-107	+13	-7	-25	+117	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	136	30	2	17	43	174	16	15	3	232	303	377	680	145	298	27	7	286	77	-17	+2	-1	-4	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	7346	6595	1510	335	26	183	487	1991	201	202	34	229	302	371	673	142	297	27	7	300	88	-100	+27	-10	-44	+208	8.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	133	30	2	16	43	176	18	18	3	228	301	368	669	140	295	27	7	300	88	-9	+2	-1	-4	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	157	116	30	5	1	1	22	35	16	21	3	259	436	345	781	86	358	22	14	370	141	+7	+3	—	—	+4	1.5
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	169	138	30	8	0	1	17	40	12	14	3	217	353	297	650	80	293	24	10	308	94	-1	+2	—	—	+5	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
	/162	664	12	20	254	307	380	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,318	108	101	231	298	375	-26	+0	5.2	4.8
	/162	664	17	16	231	298	375	-4.0	+0.0	0.8	pk7: 4
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Fragoza (OGILVIE)	19	30	20	60	35	249/311/435	185	346	11	16	33%	5%	100	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	46	-2.0	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	61	-1.0	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	64	-0.3
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	35	41→45	47→60	41	179/238/272	93	242	10	13	30%	6%	37	-2.7	221/272/301	80	287	7	19	24%	6%	58	-1.2	235/283/299	64	302	5	24	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	40	37→40	53→55	42	193/254/272	79	260	4	13	26%	6%	43	-2.2	199/267/282	83	276	6	17	28%	7%	52	-1.6	193/273/276	82	259	9	24	27%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→30	54→50	47	207/264/281	74	251	3	14	19%	6%	50	-1.8	245/295/318	73	283	3	14	14%	5%	72	-0.2	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6
✕Randy Romero 2019 · A	19	43	36→40	50→60	45	203/252/272	69	247	3	12	19%	6%	42	-2.3	229/271/302	73	269	3	22	15%	5%	56	-1.3	223/260/283	60	275	2	30	19%	4%	47	-0.6
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	37	-2.6	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	42	-2.3	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	197/261/279	83	254	5	7	24%	6%	49	-1.8	211/290/283	72	267	5	9	21%	9%	62	-0.9	219/316/271	52	272	4	10	19%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Albert Laboy 2006 · A	19	39→38	37→40	52→45	42	187/233/255	68	227	5	9	20%	4%	29	-3.2	210/254/295	85	254	8	8	20%	5%	49	-1.8	213/261/298	85	248	10	6	18%	5%	51	-0.9
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	34	-2.8	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	33	-2.9	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	6	-1.4
✕Jose Paez 2012 · A	18	36	36→45	51→50	41	173/241/239	66	265	4	16	34%	7%	30	-3.1	220/268/311	91	310	5	12	29%	5%	58	-1.2	226/270/319	93	319	4	12	29%	5%	56	-0.4
✕Ryan Vega 2016 · A	19	40	35→40	52→45	41	190/245/253	62	253	3	9	25%	5%	34	-2.8	221/274/312	91	286	8	7	24%	6%	62	-0.9	199/262/287	88	273	8	6	29%	6%	49	-0.8
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	40→35	37→40	54→50	44	191/258/270	80	263	4	18	28%	7%	45	-2.1	201/265/282	81	295	5	9	31%	7%	50	-1.7	191/271/264	74	296	3	7	33%	9%	45	-1.3
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2010 · A	19	38	38→45	51→50	38	189/234/265	77	255	6	13	28%	4%	33	-2.9	216/275/340	124	268	12	12	23%	6%	70	-0.3	221/275/340	119	279	13	9	25%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Albert Hernandez 2008 · A	19	43	39→40	49→45	46	207/270/299	92	260	6	7	22%	7%	57	-1.2	226/286/317	91	285	6	7	22%	6%	68	-0.5	230/289/314	84	291	6	6	22%	6%	66	-0.2
✕Edwin Gomez 2007 · A	19	42	35→45	52→50	42	197/253/253	57	281	2	16	29%	7%	37	-2.6	219/296/310	91	297	7	13	26%	9%	71	-0.3	224/321/329	105	291	9	17	24%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	41→44	34→30	51→55	42	194/257/244	49	275	2	16	28%	6%	37	-2.6	213/312/258	45	291	1	19	24%	11%	66	-0.6	202/327/232	30	283	1	24	24%	14%	65	-0.3
✕Efrain Contreras 2006 · A	19	43	37→45	49→55	41	202/261/275	74	285	4	9	29%	6%	47	-1.9	224/289/333	109	269	10	13	20%	5%	74	-0.1	225/291/340	115	260	12	15	18%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Zack Larson 2013 · A	19	45→35	37→45	53→50	39	208/264/285	77	308	4	10	32%	6%	50	-1.7	209/265/287	78	284	5	11	27%	5%	52	-1.6	189/247/250	60	260	3	12	27%	5%	33	-1.4
✕Deiber Olivera 2012 · A	19	44	38→40	50→45	44	210/259/296	86	269	4	8	23%	6%	50	-1.7	236/277/312	76	275	3	7	15%	4%	63	-0.9	255/291/322	67	289	2	7	12%	3%	69	-0.1
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	41	42→45	47→50	43	203/277/306	103	268	9	7	27%	6%	63	-0.9	224/283/326	102	290	5	11	24%	5%	69	-0.4	226/280/337	111	291	6	11	23%	4%	69	-0.2