Luis Fragoza

OF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#584ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKMIN157.259/.436/.34512159—.176/.340/.240
202518ROKMIN169.217/.353/.29711432—.160/.275/.222
202619A+/A/ROKMIN339.313/.404/.5421424108—.260/.341/.431
2027PROJMLE20MLBMIN449.231/.299/.3811311910.3
2028PROJ31% MLB21MLBMIN90.235/.304/.39132950.1
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBMIN185.238/.308/.39865980.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
BB%80
wOBA78
wRC+76
Speed52
Chase%50
Z-Con%27
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 23, comp-based) · star 10% · didn't stick 65%
CompsNoelvi Marte (age 20) · Luke Adams (age 20) · Hao-Yu Lee (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†91
AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .296 / .378
PA210
HR6
SB5
K%25
BB%7
ISO150
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.10.30.50.60.70.70.70.60.40.227282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$27M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.7$2M+$1M
2035Arb-1$2M+0.6$1M+$0.3M
2036Arb-2$3M+0.4$0.8M+$0.0M (cut)
2037Arb-3$3M+0.2$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $5M $8M +$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Twins — 157116 30511 223516 213 259436345781 86358 2214 370 59 — — — — — —
202518 ROKFCL Twins — 169138 30801 174012 143 217353297650 80293 2410 308 32 — — — — — —
202619 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 5844 13100 9183 50 295431318749 23500 3116 356 91 — — — — — —
202619 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 245211 6818014 20668 152 3223956071.002 284406 278 427 118 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Twins — 3629 8400 473 40 276417414830 138364 1911 382 65 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 157125 22311 154316 213 176340240580 64236 2710 255 59 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 169144 23601 115812 143 160275222498 62230 347 216 32 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 5848 13100 7233 50 271397292688 21475 4012 303 91 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 245221 5915011 14908 152 267333484817 217380 376 343 118 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 3631 6300 2103 40 194306290596 97279 286 264 65 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 157125 22311 154316 213 176340240580 64256 2710 255 59 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Twins — 157116 30511 223516 213 259436345781 86358 2214 370 59 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 169144 23601 115812 143 160275222498 62253 347 216 32 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWFCL Twins — 169138 30801 174012 143 217353297650 80293 2410 308 32 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE3 teams — 339300 7718011 2312314 242 257338427765 170393 367 328 108 — — — — — —
202619 A RAW3 teams — 339284 8923014 339114 242 313404542946 229414 2710 410 108 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 157125 22311 154316 213 176340240580 64236 2710 255 59 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 169144 23601 115812 143 160275222498 62230 347 216 32 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE3 teams — 339299 7718011 2312314 242 258338428766 171386 367 328 108 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 157125 22311 154316 213 176340240580 64236 2710 255 59 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 169144 23601 115812 143 160275222498 62230 347 216 32 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE3 teams — 339299 7718011 2312314 242 258338428766 171386 367 328 108 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEMIN 0% 449407 9519213 2911210 112 231299381680 150285 256 303 91 -5 +1 +0 -3 +10 0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEMIN 31% 289261 611219 20716 81 235304391694 156286 257 309 95 -2 +1 +0 -2 +6 0.4
202922 MLB MLEMIN 48% 387349 8316212 27938 102 238307398705 160287 247 314 98 -1 +1 +0 -2 +8 0.7
203023 MLB MLEMIN 57% 450406 9719214 321079 122 240310403713 163288 247 317 101 +0 +2 +0 -3 +10 0.9
203124 MLB MLEMIN 60% 488440 10621216 3511510 133 241312406718 165289 247 319 102 +1 +1 +0 -3 +11 1.0
203225 MLB MLEMIN 62% 511459 11222217 3712010 143 242313407720 165289 237 320 103 +2 +2 +0 -3 +11 1.1
203326 MLB MLEMIN 63% 522469 11322217 3812210 143 242313407720 165289 237 320 102 +2 +2 +0 -3 +11 1.2
203427 MLB MLEMIN 62% 523469 11322217 3912310 133 241312404716 164288 247 318 101 +1 +1 +0 -3 +11 1.1
203528 MLB MLEMIN 62% 518465 11122216 3812310 112 239310399709 161287 247 315 100 -0 +1 -1 -3 +11 0.9
203629 MLB MLEMIN 67% 507455 10821216 3712210 92 236307393700 157285 247 312 97 -2 +1 -1 -3 +11 0.6
203730 MLB MLEMIN 70% 494446 10420215 361219 62 233303385688 152283 247 307 94 -4 +0 -2 -3 +11 0.2
203831 MLB MLEMIN 73% 477431 9819114 341189 31 229298375673 146280 257 301 90 -6 +0 -3 -3 +10 -0.1
202821 MLB CTXMIN 31% 9082 19403 6222 20 235304391695 156286 247 310 95 -0 +0 +0 -1 +2 0.1
202922 MLB CTXMIN 48% 185166 40816 13444 51 238308398706 161287 247 314 98 -0 +1 +0 -1 +4 0.3
203023 MLB CTXMIN 57% 256231 551118 18615 71 240310403714 164288 247 317 101 +0 +1 +0 -2 +6 0.5
203124 MLB CTXMIN 60% 293264 6413110 21696 82 242312407719 165289 247 319 102 +1 +1 +0 -2 +6 0.6
203225 MLB CTXMIN 62% 317285 6914110 23746 82 242313408721 166289 237 320 103 +1 +1 +0 -2 +7 0.7
203326 MLB CTXMIN 63% 329296 7114111 24776 92 242313408721 166289 237 320 102 +1 +1 +0 -2 +7 0.7
203427 MLB CTXMIN 62% 327294 7114111 24776 82 241312405717 164288 247 319 101 +1 +1 +0 -2 +7 0.7
203528 MLB CTXMIN 62% 321288 6914110 24766 71 239310400710 161287 247 316 100 -0 +1 -0 -2 +7 0.6
203629 MLB CTXMIN 67% 337303 7114110 25816 61 236307394701 157286 247 312 97 -1 +1 -1 -2 +7 0.4
203730 MLB CTXMIN 70% 346312 7214110 25846 51 233303386689 153284 247 307 94 -3 +1 -1 -2 +7 0.2
203831 MLB CTXMIN 73% 347313 7214110 25866 21 229298376674 147280 257 301 90 -4 +0 -2 -2 +8 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 31482834 6731341099 22875159 6714 237308397704 159287 247 314 96 -6 +8 -5 -19 +68 4.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650585 13928220 4715512 143 238307395702 157287 247 314 96 -1 +2 -1 -4 +14 1.0
Career— MLE — 60415408 127225222182 4361511148 17733 235310391701 156291 257 310 96 -10 +14 -7 -32 +116 8.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650582 13727220 4716316 194 235310392702 156291 257 310 96 -1 +2 -1 -4 +14 1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 245 PAwOBA .419 → .343 (−75)K% 26.9% → 36.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.94%÷1.000×1.360——36.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.16%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0305.80%
HBP% /PA3.27%—×0.780—×1.0302.62%
Singles /BIP24.83%÷1.000×0.920×1.040×1.03024.46%
Doubles /BIP12.41%÷1.000×0.830×1.040×1.03011.04%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×1.040×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP9.66%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0307.96%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .419 → .343; ISO .284 → .223; BABIP .406 → .380. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 58 PAwOBA .348 → .303 (−45)K% 31.0% → 39.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.03%÷1.000×1.270——39.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.52%÷1.000×0.710—×1.04211.48%
HBP% /PA5.17%—×0.790—×1.0424.26%
Singles /BIP46.15%÷1.000×0.920—×1.04244.24%
Doubles /BIP3.85%÷1.000×0.810—×1.0423.25%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850—×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0420.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .348 → .303; ISO .023 → .019; BABIP .500 → .475. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 36 PAwOBA .373 → .264 (−109)K% 19.4% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.44%÷1.000×1.440——28.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9956.85%
HBP% /PA8.33%—×0.720—×0.9955.97%
Singles /BIP18.18%÷1.000×0.820—×0.99514.83%
Doubles /BIP18.18%÷1.000×0.720—×0.99513.03%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .373 → .264; ISO .138 → .096; BABIP .364 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Twins · 169 PAwOBA .304 → .216 (−88)K% 23.7% → 34.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.67%÷0.998×1.440——34.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.06%÷0.981×0.620—×1.0086.41%
HBP% /PA7.10%—×0.720—×1.0085.15%
Singles /BIP21.43%÷1.028×0.820×1.003×1.00817.27%
Doubles /BIP8.16%÷0.979×0.720×1.003×1.0086.07%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×1.003×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP1.02%÷1.006×0.780—×1.0080.80%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .304 → .216; ISO .080 → .056; BABIP .293 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Twins · 157 PAwOBA .364 → .255 (−109)K% 22.3% → 27.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.29%÷1.000×1.220——27.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.01%÷1.010×0.700—×1.0089.79%
HBP% /PA10.19%—×0.700—×1.0087.19%
Singles /BIP28.40%÷1.038×0.680×1.024×1.00819.19%
Doubles /BIP6.17%÷1.006×0.600×1.024×1.0083.80%
Triples /BIP1.23%÷1.115×0.600×1.024×1.0080.69%
Home runs /BIP1.23%÷0.939×0.470—×1.0080.62%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 108, 2B 101, 3B 123, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .364 → .255; ISO .086 → .053; BABIP .358 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).