Luis Fragoza — OGILVIE

Luis FragozaOF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 19 R/R 6'1" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION339 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP317

ISO105

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$38M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2035	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$8M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$20M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	157	116	30	5	1	1	22	35	16	21	3	259	436	345	781	86	358	22	14	370	136	+7	+3	—	—	+3	1.3
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	169	138	30	8	0	1	17	40	12	14	3	217	353	297	650	80	293	24	10	308	95	-1	+2	—	—	+4	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	126	25	4	1	1	14	50	16	21	3	198	353	270	622	71	283	32	9	266	66	-6	+3	—	—	+3	0.0
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	169	144	23	6	0	1	11	58	12	14	3	160	275	222	498	62	228	34	7	215	32	-14	+2	—	—	+4	-0.9
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	126	25	4	1	1	14	50	16	21	3	198	353	270	622	71	316	32	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	157	116	30	5	1	1	22	35	16	21	3	259	436	345	781	86	358	22	14	370	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	169	144	23	6	0	1	11	58	12	14	3	160	275	222	498	62	253	34	7	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	169	138	30	8	0	1	17	40	12	14	3	217	353	297	650	80	293	24	10	308	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	126	25	4	1	1	14	50	16	21	3	198	353	270	622	71	283	32	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	169	144	23	6	0	1	11	58	12	14	3	160	275	222	498	62	228	34	7	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	126	25	4	1	1	14	50	16	21	3	198	353	270	622	71	283	32	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	169	144	23	6	0	1	11	58	12	14	3	160	275	222	498	62	228	34	7	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A MLE	MIN	—	339	299	75	20	0	11	24	128	14	24	2	251	335	428	763	177	395	38	7	328	108	+3	+4	+0	-2	+7	1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	MIN	—	36	29	8	4	0	0	4	7	3	4	0	276	417	414	830	138	364	19	11	382	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A RAW	MIN	—	245	211	68	18	0	14	20	66	8	15	2	322	395	607	1.002	284	406	27	8	427	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A+ RAW	MIN	—	58	44	13	1	0	0	9	18	3	5	0	295	431	318	749	23	500	31	16	356	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	A MLE	MIN	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		317	30	10	303	91	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	A MLE	MIN	—	349	308	76	20	0	11	25	131	14	24	2	247	331	419	750	172	387	38	7	327	108	+3	+4	+0	-2	+8	1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	352	315	73	17	1	8	24	102	10	11	2	232	307	368	675	137	314	29	7	306	93	-3	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	448	400	95	21	1	12	32	126	13	14	2	237	315	385	700	148	313	28	7	312	98	-1	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.8
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	511	455	111	25	2	14	37	140	14	16	2	244	320	400	720	156	313	27	7	317	101	+1	+2	+0	-3	+11	1.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	549	489	118	26	2	15	40	148	15	17	2	241	318	395	713	153	313	27	7	321	103	+2	+3	+0	-3	+12	1.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	574	510	126	28	2	17	43	154	16	18	2	247	325	410	735	163	314	27	7	323	105	+3	+3	+0	-3	+12	1.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIN	60%	586	521	127	28	2	17	44	157	16	18	3	244	322	403	725	159	314	27	8	324	106	+4	+2	+0	-4	+13	1.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIN	62%	591	526	128	28	2	17	44	158	16	18	3	243	321	401	722	158	314	27	7	325	106	+4	+2	+0	-4	+13	1.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIN	63%	590	524	128	28	2	17	45	158	16	18	3	244	323	403	726	158	313	27	8	325	106	+4	+2	+0	-4	+13	1.6
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	584	518	126	28	2	17	45	158	16	17	2	243	323	403	726	160	313	27	8	324	105	+4	+3	-1	-4	+13	1.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	573	507	124	27	2	17	45	156	16	15	2	245	326	406	732	162	312	27	8	322	104	+3	+2	-1	-3	+12	1.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	562	498	119	26	1	16	44	154	15	14	2	239	320	392	711	153	311	27	8	319	102	+1	+2	-2	-3	+12	1.0
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	548	485	114	25	1	15	43	152	15	12	2	235	317	384	700	148	308	28	8	315	99	-0	+2	-3	-3	+12	0.7
2039	32	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	529	469	109	24	1	14	41	149	14	9	1	232	313	377	690	145	305	28	8	309	95	-3	+1	-4	-3	+11	0.3
2040	33	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	500	445	100	21	1	13	38	143	13	7	1	225	304	364	668	139	300	29	8	302	90	-6	+1	-4	-3	+11	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	121	109	25	6	0	3	8	35	3	4	1	229	300	367	667	138	315	29	7	285	93	-1	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	217	194	46	10	1	6	15	61	6	7	1	237	312	392	703	155	314	28	7	292	98	-1	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	277	247	60	13	1	8	20	76	8	8	1	243	320	401	721	158	313	27	7	298	101	+0	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.6
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	311	277	68	15	1	9	23	84	8	9	1	245	321	404	726	159	313	27	7	301	103	+1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.8
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	325	289	71	16	1	9	24	87	9	10	1	246	323	401	724	156	314	27	7	304	105	+2	+2	+0	-2	+7	0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIN	60%	354	315	77	17	1	10	26	95	10	11	2	244	322	400	722	156	314	27	7	305	106	+2	+1	+0	-2	+8	1.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIN	62%	369	328	81	18	1	11	28	99	10	11	2	247	325	409	734	162	314	27	8	305	106	+3	+1	+0	-2	+8	1.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIN	63%	374	332	81	18	1	11	29	100	10	11	2	244	323	404	727	160	314	27	8	305	106	+3	+1	+0	-2	+8	1.0
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	380	338	82	18	1	11	29	102	10	11	2	243	321	399	720	157	313	27	8	304	105	+2	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.9
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	372	330	80	18	1	11	29	101	10	10	1	242	322	403	726	161	312	27	8	302	104	+2	+2	-1	-2	+8	0.8
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	365	324	77	17	1	10	28	100	10	9	1	238	318	389	707	151	311	27	8	300	102	+1	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	356	315	75	16	1	10	28	99	10	8	1	238	320	390	711	152	308	28	8	296	99	-0	+1	-2	-2	+8	0.5
2039	32	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	344	305	71	15	1	9	27	97	9	6	1	233	314	377	691	144	305	28	8	290	95	-2	+1	-2	-2	+7	0.2
2040	33	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	325	288	65	14	1	8	25	93	9	4	1	226	307	365	672	139	300	29	8	283	90	-4	+0	-3	-2	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4490	3991	959	211	13	126	339	1229	122	119	18	240	319	394	713	154	313	27	8	299	99	+8	+17	-10	-27	+97	8.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	139	31	2	18	49	178	18	17	3	240	320	394	714	154	313	27	8	299	99	+1	+2	-1	-4	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	7833	6941	1647	362	23	211	591	2166	233	239	35	237	318	387	705	150	312	28	8	315	99	+12	+29	-15	-45	+163	14.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	137	30	2	18	49	180	19	20	3	238	318	391	708	153	312	28	8	315	99	+1	+3	-1	-4	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
/162	664	24	18	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#2Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
/162	664	20	24	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
#3Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.1	4,710	129	125	240	314	392	-28	+0	11.8	9.9
/162	664	18	18	-4.0	+0.0	1.7	pk7: 8
#4Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#6Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Fragoza (OGILVIE)	19	30	20	60	35	229/304/362	134	317	5	10	30%	7%	91	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	53	-2.1	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	65	-1.2	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	41	42→45	47→50	43	203/277/306	103	268	9	7	27%	6%	67	-1.1	224/283/326	102	290	5	11	24%	5%	73	-0.6	226/280/337	111	291	6	11	23%	4%	73	-0.3
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	43	196/259/277	81	254	5	7	24%	6%	53	-2.1	212/289/284	72	268	5	9	21%	9%	66	-1.1	221/317/274	53	274	5	10	19%	11%	72	-0.3
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→45	54→55	47	208/265/283	75	252	3	14	19%	6%	56	-1.9	245/295/319	74	283	3	14	14%	5%	75	-0.5	286/329/371	85	315	6	22	11%	5%	96	+0.4
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Albert Hernandez 2008 · A	19	43	39→40	49→45	46	207/270/299	92	260	6	7	22%	7%	62	-1.4	226/286/317	91	285	6	7	22%	6%	72	-0.7	230/289/314	84	291	6	6	22%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Luke Adams 2023 · A	19	50→36	41→50	55	45	231/306/331	100	330	7	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	193/323/316	123	270	12	20	30%	11%	89	+0.5	189/341/340	151	235	17	19	25%	12%	100	+0.7
✕Efrain Contreras 2006 · A	19	43	37→45	49→55	41	202/261/275	74	285	4	9	29%	6%	53	-2.1	224/289/333	109	269	10	13	20%	5%	77	-0.3	225/291/340	115	260	12	15	18%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	41	37→40	53→55	43	195/256/271	76	260	4	13	25%	6%	50	-2.3	197/266/280	83	273	6	17	28%	7%	56	-1.9	189/268/272	83	254	9	24	27%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	40→37	37→40	54→50	44	191/258/270	80	263	4	18	28%	7%	51	-2.2	202/266/283	81	296	5	9	31%	7%	57	-1.8	194/265/261	67	295	4	7	33%	8%	48	-1.4
✕Deiber Olivera 2012 · A	19	44	38→40	50→45	44	210/259/296	86	269	4	8	23%	6%	56	-1.9	236/277/312	76	275	3	7	15%	4%	67	-1.1	255/291/322	67	289	2	7	12%	3%	73	-0.2
✕Zack Larson 2014 · A	20	46→36	41→45	53→50	41	222/281/319	97	293	8	13	26%	6%	71	-0.8	201/256/267	66	276	3	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	183/239/232	49	254	1	10	26%	5%	34	-1.9
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2009 · A	19	44	39→40	48→55	47	209/298/288	79	282	7	17	26%	8%	72	-0.7	199/266/274	75	324	6	12	37%	7%	55	-1.9	172/232/231	59	310	6	11	43%	7%	30	-1.1
✕Jose Paez 2013 · A	19	49	40→45	51→50	43	233/286/331	98	308	6	13	25%	6%	74	-0.5	210/256/293	83	314	4	11	32%	5%	55	-2.0	178/220/246	68	283	3	12	36%	4%	26	-1.1
✕Ricky Cabrera 2023 · A	18	43	37→45	48→60	37	200/274/282	82	301	4	8	32%	5%	61	-1.5	219/296/323	104	314	8	15	31%	6%	78	-0.3	223/301/336	113	317	11	20	31%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Angel Aponte 2019 · A	19	41	41→45	56→55	40	203/267/304	101	272	9	20	28%	6%	63	-1.4	209/267/303	94	296	7	19	30%	6%	61	-1.5	204/264/295	91	289	8	25	30%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Ryan Vega 2017 · A	20	44	40	54→45	41	212/260/305	93	270	8	9	24%	5%	59	-1.6	214/273/302	88	290	7	7	27%	6%	64	-1.3	192/260/272	79	271	7	6	30%	7%	52	-1.2
●Jahmai Jones 2017 · A	19	47→50	39→50	52→50	43	223/275/306	83	283	6	17	23%	5%	65	-1.2	219/277/324	105	286	9	15	25%	7%	70	-0.8	248/345/422	173	324	16	18	26%	11%	114	+1.3
✕Athanael Duarte 2023 · A	18	39	42→40	53→45	45	194/262/300	106	257	10	14	28%	8%	59	-1.6	201/266/295	94	268	8	10	26%	7%	60	-1.6	184/255/271	87	254	7	7	29%	7%	49	-0.8
✕Ravel Santana 2010 · A	18	39	42→50	48→55	44	192/269/294	102	269	10	9	31%	8%	61	-1.5	219/288/360	141	283	16	15	27%	8%	83	+0.1	220/291/383	163	271	20	20	26%	8%	87	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps