Yander Maria — OGILVIE

Yander Maria P ACL Cubs

Age 19 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%22.1%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%5.2%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	12	12	32	134	34	24	2	100%	2.6	17.3%	22.4%	-5.1%	2.3%	3.98	5.74	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	12	12	32	134	34	24	2	100%	2.6	17.3%	22.4%	-5.1%	2.3%	3.98	5.74	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	12	12	32	134	34	24	2	100%	2.6	25.4%	17.9%	7.5%	1.5%	3.98	4.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	12	6	26	148	31	31	6	50%	2.2	14.2%	26.2%	-11.9%	5.7%	12.30	8.33	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	12	6	26	148	31	31	6	50%	2.2	14.2%	26.2%	-11.9%	5.7%	12.30	8.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	CHC	12	6	26	148	31	31	6	50%	2.2	20.9%	20.9%	0.0%	4.1%	12.30	6.21	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CHC	5	5	30	126	29	18	4	100%	6.0	22.6%	14.6%	8.1%	2.9%	5.13	5.02	-0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	CHC	3	3	15	63	14	9	2	100%	5.0	22.6%	14.6%	8.1%	2.9%	5.13	5.02	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	62	14	9	2	100%	4.9	22.6%	14.6%	8.1%	2.9%	5.13	4.64	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	190	122	27	100%	4.6	22.6%	14.6%	8.1%	2.9%	5.13	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		24	18	58	282	44	69	11	75%	2.4	15.7%	24.4%	-8.7%	4.1%	7.76	7.10	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	62	200	972	152	237	40	75%	2.4	15.7%	24.4%	-8.7%	4.1%	7.76	7.10	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yander Maria (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	22.1%	16.9%	3.0%	—	5.02	22.6%	8.1%	30	-0.37	—	—	—
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	86
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	83
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	83
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	83
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	83
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	82
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	82
Yoniel Curet R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	19	SP-	5.18	21.8%	17.5%	3.1%	.205	3.81	23.8%	8.0%	273	-1.37	3.40	385	81
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	81
Luis Reyes R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	17	SP-	6.24	18.4%	20.7%	3.8%	.333	4.28	17.1%	5.1%	129	-1.96	4.02	167	81
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	79
Miguel Ullola R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP-	4.90	24.4%	24.8%	1.3%	.239	4.54	24.8%	7.6%	290	-0.36	3.93	494	79
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	79
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	211	79
Edgar Isea R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	19	SP-	5.51	19.3%	20.3%	2.7%	.371	5.19	21.4%	-4.1%	98	-0.32	4.50	162	78
Deivy Mendez R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	19	SP-	4.43	20.3%	20.5%	0.8%	.308	4.98	22.9%	3.4%	81	+0.55	2.84	130	78
Jaydenn Estanista R 2021 · 4.72 FIP	19	SP-	4.72	18.1%	19.2%	1.3%	.254	5.35	21.0%	2.6%	109	+0.63	4.59	230	78
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	78
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	78
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	77