Edinzo Marquez — OGILVIE

Edinzo Marquez P FCL Yankees

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.95

FIP5.95

K%10.1%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%-4.5%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	5	2	13	53	16	8	1	40%	2.6	20.5%	18.9%	1.7%	2.2%	4.15	4.97	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	5	2	13	53	16	8	1	40%	2.6	30.2%	15.1%	15.1%	1.9%	4.15	3.48	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	44	186	50	20	0	100%	3.7	18.3%	13.4%	4.8%	0.0%	3.45	3.26	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	44	186	50	20	0	100%	3.7	18.3%	13.4%	4.8%	0.0%	3.45	3.26	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	44	186	50	20	0	100%	3.7	26.9%	10.8%	16.1%	0.0%	3.45	2.20	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	74	324	48	33	4	88%	4.6	10.2%	12.5%	-2.2%	0.8%	4.00	4.28	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	74	324	48	33	4	88%	4.6	10.2%	12.5%	-2.2%	0.8%	4.00	4.28	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	74	324	48	33	4	88%	4.6	14.8%	10.2%	4.6%	1.2%	4.00	3.84	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	19	6	56	238	60	24	6	32%	2.9	17.8%	12.3%	5.5%	3.4%	2.89	5.02	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	19	6	56	238	60	24	6	32%	2.9	17.8%	12.3%	5.5%	3.4%	2.89	5.02	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	NYY	13	1	29	124	34	14	3	8%	2.2	27.4%	11.3%	16.1%	2.4%	2.20	3.54	—
2026	21	A RAW	NYY	6	5	27	114	26	10	3	83%	4.5	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	2.6%	3.62	3.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	70	296	40	39	8	100%	6.4	13.5%	13.2%	0.3%	2.7%	5.59	5.47	-0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	73	307	48	38	8	100%	6.1	15.7%	12.3%	3.3%	2.6%	5.30	5.17	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	75	315	53	37	8	100%	6.2	16.9%	11.8%	5.1%	2.6%	5.10	4.99	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	76	319	56	37	8	100%	6.3	17.6%	11.6%	6.0%	2.6%	4.97	4.90	0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	76	319	57	37	8	100%	6.3	17.9%	11.6%	6.3%	2.6%	4.91	4.87	+0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	74	314	56	37	8	100%	6.2	17.9%	11.6%	6.3%	2.7%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	72	305	54	36	8	100%	6.0	17.8%	11.8%	6.0%	2.8%	4.96	4.99	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	69	291	51	35	8	100%	6.3	17.5%	12.0%	5.5%	2.9%	5.06	5.12	-0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	65	274	47	34	9	100%	5.9	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	3.1%	5.20	5.30	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	35	148	20	20	4	100%	5.8	13.5%	13.2%	0.3%	2.8%	5.69	5.57	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	53	224	35	28	6	100%	5.9	15.7%	12.3%	3.3%	2.8%	5.40	5.27	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	62	262	44	31	7	100%	6.2	16.9%	11.8%	5.1%	2.8%	5.20	5.09	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	67	283	50	33	8	100%	6.1	17.6%	11.6%	6.0%	2.8%	5.07	5.00	0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	69	291	52	34	8	100%	6.3	17.9%	11.6%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	4.97	+0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	69	291	52	34	8	100%	6.3	17.9%	11.6%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	5.01	-0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	68	287	51	34	8	100%	6.2	17.8%	11.8%	6.0%	3.0%	5.06	5.09	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	66	279	49	33	9	100%	6.0	17.5%	12.0%	5.5%	3.1%	5.17	5.23	-0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	62	262	45	32	9	100%	6.2	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	3.3%	5.32	5.42	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	90	549	2317	397	277	68	100%	6.1	17.1%	12.0%	5.2%	2.9%	5.18	4.77	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	145	101	25	100%	6.1	17.1%	12.0%	5.2%	2.9%	5.18	4.77	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		52	34	188	801	120	105	12	65%	3.6	15.0%	13.1%	2.0%	1.5%	3.55	4.31	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	36	200	854	128	112	13	65%	3.6	15.0%	13.1%	2.0%	1.5%	3.55	4.31	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edinzo Marquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.95	10.1%	14.6%	2.7%	—	5.21	15.4%	2.9%	218	-0.74	—	—	—
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	87
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	86
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	85
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.16	333	84
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	83
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	83
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	81
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	80
Jhon Vergara R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	19	SW	5.75	11.1%	13.1%	3.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	106	80
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	80
Ramon Santos R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	21	SP-	5.00	12.7%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	199	-0.82	3.74	355	79
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	79
Jesus Lopez R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	18	SP-	5.20	7.5%	14.5%	1.6%	.347	4.78	13.0%	2.1%	80	-0.42	4.48	113	79
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	79
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	79
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	79
Jefferson Medina R 2015 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP-	5.12	13.1%	16.1%	2.0%	.279	3.89	14.1%	2.6%	187	-1.23	3.56	350	78
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	78
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	77
Torey Deshazier R 2015 · 5.45 FIP	21	SW	5.45	12.7%	12.8%	3.3%	.319	5.33	14.8%	-10.6%	41	-0.12	5.33	127	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	69	16.5%	12.2%	1.05	5.16
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98