Jesus Lopez — OGILVIE

Jesus Lopez P DSL Giants Orange

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%19.9%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	12	8	33	155	17	18	2	67%	2.8	7.5%	14.5%	-7.1%	1.6%	6.75	5.20	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	12	8	33	155	17	18	2	67%	2.8	7.5%	14.5%	-7.1%	1.6%	6.75	5.20	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	12	8	33	155	17	18	2	67%	2.8	11.0%	11.6%	-0.6%	1.3%	6.75	4.48	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	16	0	29	143	30	10	3	0%	1.8	14.3%	8.7%	5.5%	2.7%	5.59	4.48	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	16	0	29	143	30	10	3	0%	1.8	14.3%	8.7%	5.5%	2.7%	5.59	4.48	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	16	0	29	143	30	10	3	0%	1.8	21.0%	7.0%	14.0%	2.1%	5.59	3.41	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	4	4	11	52	13	10	0	100%	2.7	17.0%	24.0%	-7.0%	0.0%	4.22	4.71	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	4	4	11	52	13	10	0	100%	2.7	17.0%	24.0%	-7.0%	0.0%	4.22	4.71	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	4	4	11	52	13	10	0	100%	2.7	25.0%	19.2%	5.8%	0.0%	4.22	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	16	4	40	181	29	13	4	25%	2.5	10.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.1%	5.17	5.02	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	16	4	40	181	29	13	4	25%	2.5	10.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.1%	5.17	5.02	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	SF	16	4	40	181	29	13	4	25%	2.5	16.0%	7.2%	8.8%	2.2%	5.17	3.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SF	39	0	41	174	37	21	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.0%	9.3%	2.9%	4.89	4.78	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	SF	19	0	20	84	18	10	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.0%	9.3%	2.9%	4.89	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	86	18	10	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.0%	9.3%	2.9%	4.89	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	99	20	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.0%	9.3%	2.9%	4.89	4.40	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		48	16	113	531	61	64	12	33%	2.4	11.4%	12.0%	-0.6%	2.3%	5.65	4.89	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	28	200	940	107	113	21	33%	2.4	11.4%	12.0%	-0.6%	2.3%	5.65	4.89	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	19.9%	13.7%	2.9%	—	4.78	21.3%	9.3%	41	-0.36	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	89
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	87
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	84
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	84
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	84
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	82
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	81
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	81
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	80
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	79
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	79
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	79
Miguel Alfonseca R 2021 · 4.19 FIP	21	SP-	4.19	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.400	5.36	14.9%	-0.9%	92	+1.17	4.19	123	78
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	78
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	78
Denis Reguillo R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	19	SW	5.27	17.6%	11.6%	4.0%	.358	5.19	10.7%	-8.3%	52	-0.08	3.78	109	78
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	78
Andinson Ferrer R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	19	SW	4.72	17.4%	13.7%	2.5%	.287	4.64	21.7%	2.1%	34	-0.08	4.04	101	77
Wander Guante R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	21	SW	4.74	21.3%	13.1%	3.3%	.354	5.30	14.7%	3.1%	255	+0.56	3.83	372	77
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.0%	12.3%	1.12	4.94
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78