Brandon Komar
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
K%14.3%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%5.6%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 2 | 34 | 156 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 17% | 2.9 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 6.29 | 4.63 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 2 | 34 | 156 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 17% | 2.9 | 25.0% | 9.6% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 6.29 | 3.65 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 5 | 80 | 356 | 85 | 40 | 7 | 16% | 2.6 | 19.0% | 12.5% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.77 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 5 | 80 | 356 | 85 | 40 | 7 | 16% | 2.6 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 2.0% | 4.48 | 3.61 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 16 | 118 | 498 | 95 | 44 | 14 | 52% | 3.8 | 15.1% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.19 | 5.51 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 16 | 118 | 498 | 95 | 44 | 14 | 52% | 3.8 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 4.15 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 126 | 532 | 91 | 46 | 17 | 88% | 5.1 | 13.6% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 4.82 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 126 | 532 | 91 | 46 | 17 | 88% | 5.1 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.99 | 4.50 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 8 | 102 | 427 | 83 | 28 | 3 | 28% | 3.5 | 16.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 0.7% | 3.10 | 3.00 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 8 | 102 | 427 | 83 | 28 | 3 | 28% | 3.5 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 12.9% | 0.7% | 3.10 | 2.68 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 5 | 81 | 359 | 68 | 29 | 10 | 18% | 2.9 | 15.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.20 | 4.72 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 5 | 81 | 359 | 68 | 29 | 10 | 18% | 2.9 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 5.20 | 4.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 42 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 43 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 42 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 24 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 40 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.57 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 130 | 75 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 156 | 58 | 542 | 2328 | 367 | 224 | 68 | 37% | 3.5 | 15.8% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.60 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 21 | 200 | 859 | 136 | 83 | 25 | 37% | 3.5 | 15.8% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Komar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.94 | 15.3% | 6.3% | 133 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 86 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 84 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 83 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 81 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 81 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 81 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 81 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 107 | 81 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 80 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 80 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 80 |
| Chris Jensen R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.29 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 488 | 80 |
| Zeke Spruill R 2024 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 11.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 114 | 79 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 79 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 79 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 79 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 79 |
| Kurt Heyer R 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.03 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 178 | 78 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 78 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 14.9% | 8.9% | 1.11 | 4.89 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |