Alain Pena — OGILVIE

Alain Pena P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.6 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.11

FIP6.11

K%13.2%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%-2.0%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	38	166	39	20	0	58%	3.2	16.0%	15.1%	0.9%	0.0%	3.29	3.66	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	38	166	39	20	0	58%	3.2	23.5%	12.0%	11.4%	0.0%	3.29	2.63	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	6	36	153	32	17	5	55%	3.3	14.2%	13.9%	0.3%	3.3%	3.22	5.48	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	6	36	153	32	17	5	55%	3.3	14.2%	13.9%	0.3%	3.3%	3.22	5.48	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	11	6	36	153	32	17	5	55%	3.3	20.9%	11.1%	9.8%	3.3%	3.22	4.53	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	97	417	105	35	10	67%	4.0	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	2.8%	3.91	4.29	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	97	417	105	35	10	67%	4.0	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	2.8%	3.91	4.29	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	97	417	105	35	10	67%	4.0	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	2.4%	3.91	3.36	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	54	246	43	33	12	67%	3.0	12.4%	15.0%	-2.5%	5.2%	7.21	6.79	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	54	246	43	33	12	67%	3.0	12.4%	15.0%	-2.5%	5.2%	7.21	6.79	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	12	54	246	43	33	12	67%	3.0	17.5%	13.4%	4.1%	4.9%	7.21	6.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	18	3	47	211	36	24	11	17%	2.6	12.3%	13.6%	-1.2%	6.7%	5.17	7.43	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	18	3	47	211	36	24	11	17%	2.6	12.3%	13.6%	-1.2%	6.7%	5.17	7.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	HOU	9	3	25	97	19	10	2	33%	2.7	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	2.1%	2.92	3.88	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	HOU	9	0	22	114	17	14	9	0%	2.5	14.9%	12.3%	2.6%	7.9%	7.66	7.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	85	0	89	377	58	52	12	0%	1.0	15.3%	13.8%	1.5%	3.2%	5.80	5.72	-1.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	86	0	90	381	63	50	12	0%	1.1	16.6%	13.1%	3.6%	3.2%	5.57	5.49	-0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	86	0	90	381	66	49	12	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.7%	4.5%	3.2%	5.44	5.39	-0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	85	0	89	375	65	48	12	0%	1.0	17.4%	12.7%	4.7%	3.2%	5.41	5.40	-0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	82	0	86	364	63	47	12	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.8%	4.4%	3.3%	5.46	5.49	-0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	78	0	82	347	59	45	12	0%	1.1	17.0%	13.1%	4.0%	3.5%	5.55	5.62	-1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	74	0	77	327	61	41	12	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.7%	5.53	5.52	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	36	0	38	160	25	22	5	0%	1.1	15.3%	13.8%	1.5%	3.2%	5.80	5.72	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	57	0	60	253	42	33	8	0%	1.1	16.6%	13.1%	3.6%	3.2%	5.57	5.49	-0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	69	0	72	304	53	39	10	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.7%	4.5%	3.2%	5.44	5.39	-0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	72	0	76	321	56	41	10	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.7%	4.7%	3.2%	5.41	5.40	-0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	73	0	77	325	56	42	11	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.8%	4.4%	3.3%	5.46	5.49	-0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	71	0	75	317	54	41	11	0%	1.1	17.0%	13.1%	4.0%	3.5%	5.55	5.62	-0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	68	0	71	300	56	38	11	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.7%	5.53	5.52	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		446	0	468	1976	340	255	66	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.9%	4.3%	3.4%	5.52	5.13	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	109	28	0%	1.1	17.2%	12.9%	4.3%	3.4%	5.52	5.13	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		83	44	272	1193	183	153	44	53%	3.3	15.4%	12.8%	2.6%	3.6%	4.60	5.43	-4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	32	200	877	135	112	32	53%	3.3	15.4%	12.8%	2.6%	3.6%	4.60	5.43	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alain Pena (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.11	13.2%	15.2%	3.3%	—	5.53	16.4%	3.2%	270	-0.58	—	—	—
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	87
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	84
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	81
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	80
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	79
Zach Mort R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	22	SW	5.01	10.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.240	5.35	17.0%	8.8%	176	+0.34	4.95	237	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	79
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	79
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	79
Jordan Mikel R 2022 · 6.04 FIP	23	SW	6.04	12.8%	11.6%	4.7%	.229	3.65	20.1%	11.3%	115	-2.39	3.04	195	79
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	79
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	78
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	78
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	78
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	78
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	78
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	77
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	77
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	77
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	82	16.7%	13.2%	1.29	5.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74