Alain Pena

P Asheville Tourists

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 210 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	24	16	97	3.91	3.36	25.2%	8.4%	—	K 18.8% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.29
2025	22	MIX2 levels	18	12	54	7.21	6.25	17.5%	13.4%	—	K 12.4% · BB 15.0% · FIP 6.79
2026	23	MIX2 levels	18	3	47	5.17	6.14	17.1%	11.4%	—	K 12.3% · BB 13.6% · FIP 7.43
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	—	—	0	6.52	6.52	11.7%	15.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBHOU	17	0	18	6.18	6.10	14.2%	14.5%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBHOU	24	0	25	5.96	5.90	15.6%	14.1%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control35Command25

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsWirkin Estevez (age 24) · Oscar Verdugo (age 25) · Tyler Brashears (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 157149vR 141

ERA6.52

FIP6.52

K%11.7%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%-4.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	38	166	39	20	0	58%	3.2	16.0%	15.1%	0.9%	0.0%	3.29	3.66	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	38	166	39	20	0	58%	3.2	23.5%	12.0%	11.4%	0.0%	3.29	2.63	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	6	36	153	32	17	5	55%	3.3	14.2%	13.9%	0.3%	3.3%	3.22	5.48	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	11	6	36	153	32	17	5	55%	3.3	20.9%	11.1%	9.8%	3.3%	3.22	4.53	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	97	417	105	35	10	67%	4.0	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	2.8%	3.91	4.29	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	97	417	105	35	10	67%	4.0	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	2.8%	3.91	4.29	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	97	417	105	35	10	67%	4.0	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	2.4%	3.91	3.36	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	54	246	43	33	12	67%	3.0	12.4%	15.0%	-2.5%	5.2%	7.21	6.79	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	54	246	43	33	12	67%	3.0	12.4%	15.0%	-2.5%	5.2%	7.21	6.79	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	12	54	246	43	33	12	67%	3.0	17.5%	13.4%	4.1%	4.9%	7.21	6.25	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	3	47	211	36	24	11	17%	2.6	12.3%	13.6%	-1.2%	6.7%	5.17	7.43	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	3	47	211	36	24	11	17%	2.6	12.3%	13.6%	-1.2%	6.7%	5.17	7.43	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	3	47	211	36	24	11	17%	2.6	17.1%	11.4%	5.7%	5.2%	5.17	6.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.7%	15.8%	-4.1%	3.7%	6.52	6.52	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	40	0	42	179	25	26	6	0%	1.1	14.2%	14.5%	-0.4%	3.6%	6.18	6.10	-0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	35	0	37	157	24	22	6	0%	1.1	15.6%	14.1%	1.5%	3.6%	5.96	5.90	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	17	0	18	76	11	11	3	0%	1.1	14.2%	14.5%	-0.4%	3.6%	6.18	6.10	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	24	0	25	106	16	15	4	0%	1.0	15.6%	14.1%	1.5%	3.6%	5.96	5.90	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	0	43	180	27	26	6	0%	1.0	15.0%	14.3%	0.7%	3.6%	6.05	5.61	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	127	122	28	0%	1.1	15.0%	14.3%	0.7%	3.6%	6.05	5.61	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		83	44	272	1193	183	153	44	53%	3.3	15.4%	12.8%	2.6%	3.6%	4.60	5.43	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	32	200	877	135	112	32	53%	3.3	15.4%	12.8%	2.6%	3.6%	4.60	5.43	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 22 IPFIP 7.73 → 9.34 (+1.61)K% 14.9% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.91%	—	×0.770	11.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.28%	—	×1.150	14.12%
HR / BF /BF	7.89%	÷1.000	×1.250	9.87%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.73 → 9.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Astros · 25 IPFIP 3.88 → 5.19 (+1.31)K% 19.6% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.59%	—	×0.680	13.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×1.250	12.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.88 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 48 IPFIP 6.34 → 6.79 (+0.45)K% 16.1% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.14%	—	×0.770	12.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.00%	—	×1.150	14.96%
HR / BF /BF	5.38%	÷1.297	×1.250	5.19%

Result: FIP 6.34 → 6.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Astros · 6 IPFIP 2.73 → 4.11 (+1.37)K% 30.4% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.680	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×1.250	21.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.023	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.73 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 79 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.14 (+0.93)K% 25.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.740	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.43%	—	×1.180	9.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.118	×1.300	2.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 18 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.87 (+0.98)K% 25.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.88%	—	×0.770	19.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.24%	—	×1.150	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.53%	÷1.073	×1.250	4.11%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Astros · 36 IPFIP 4.54 → 5.48 (+0.94)K% 20.9% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.92%	—	×0.680	14.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.250	13.89%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷1.379	×1.400	3.32%

Result: FIP 4.54 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL HOU Blue · 38 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.66 (+1.02)K% 23.5% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.49%	—	×0.680	15.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.05%	—	×1.250	15.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.989	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alain Pena (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.52	11.7%	15.8%	3.7%	—	6.01	14.9%	0.5%	79	-0.51	—	—	—
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	85
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	85
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	81
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	79
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	79
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	78
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	78
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	77
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	77
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	76
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	76
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	76
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	76
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	75
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	75
Chris Fussell R 2000 · 6.64 FIP	24	SW	6.64	14.4%	13.1%	5.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	5.36	126	75
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	74
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	74
David Whitehead R 2016 · 6.00 FIP	24	SW	6.00	10.7%	19.2%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	217	73
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	13.5%	15.0%	1.40	6.26
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*