Zach Willeman — OGILVIE

Zach Willeman P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 125

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%10.0%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%-2.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	19	70	24	8	0	12%	2.4	34.3%	11.4%	22.9%	0.0%	1.42	1.65	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	19	70	24	8	0	12%	2.4	34.3%	11.4%	22.9%	0.0%	1.42	1.84	—
2019	23	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	21	6	80	378	55	48	8	29%	3.8	10.8%	15.0%	-4.2%	2.7%	5.38	5.57	—
2019	23	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	21	6	80	378	55	48	8	29%	3.8	14.6%	12.7%	1.9%	2.1%	5.38	4.82	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	33	0	48	209	59	23	4	0%	1.4	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	2.5%	3.78	4.05	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	33	0	48	209	59	23	4	0%	1.4	28.2%	11.0%	17.2%	1.9%	3.78	3.16	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	60	269	63	37	10	0%	1.2	20.0%	14.6%	5.4%	4.5%	5.85	5.71	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	60	269	63	37	10	0%	1.2	23.4%	13.8%	9.7%	3.7%	5.85	5.02	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	14	0	18	80	15	13	4	0%	1.3	15.2%	17.9%	-2.7%	5.5%	7.13	7.10	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	14	0	18	80	15	13	4	0%	1.3	15.2%	17.9%	-2.7%	5.5%	7.13	7.10	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	14	0	18	80	15	13	4	0%	1.3	18.8%	16.2%	2.5%	5.0%	7.13	6.55	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	11	58	246	33	23	4	92%	4.8	10.9%	10.3%	0.6%	1.9%	4.34	4.53	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	11	58	246	33	23	4	92%	4.8	10.9%	10.3%	0.6%	1.9%	4.34	4.53	—
2025	29	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	11	58	246	33	23	4	92%	4.8	13.4%	9.3%	4.1%	1.6%	4.34	4.05	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	CIN	6	0	6	25	3	3	1	0%	1.0	10.0%	12.3%	-2.3%	2.8%	5.71	5.71	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CIN	60	0	63	267	29	33	8	0%	1.1	10.9%	12.3%	-1.4%	3.0%	5.70	5.78	-0.8
2028	32	MLB MLE	CIN	56	0	59	247	28	31	8	0%	1.0	11.4%	12.5%	-1.1%	3.3%	5.77	5.89	-0.9
2027	31	MLB CTX	CIN	19	0	20	84	9	10	3	0%	1.1	10.9%	12.3%	-1.4%	3.0%	5.70	5.78	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	CIN	29	0	30	127	14	16	4	0%	1.0	11.4%	12.5%	-1.1%	3.3%	5.77	5.89	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	50	211	24	26	7	0%	1.0	11.2%	12.4%	-1.2%	3.2%	5.74	5.47	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	96	104	28	0%	1.1	11.2%	12.4%	-1.2%	3.2%	5.74	5.47	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		138	18	283	1252	205	169	36	13%	2.0	16.4%	13.5%	2.9%	2.9%	4.84	5.02	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	13	200	886	145	119	26	13%	2.0	16.4%	13.5%	2.9%	2.9%	4.84	5.02	-2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Willeman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	10.0%	12.3%	2.8%	—	5.83	11.2%	-1.2%	122	+0.12	—	—	—
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	82
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	78
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	76
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	75
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	74
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	73
Francisco Rodriguez R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	32	SU	4.79	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.281	4.04	12.1%	4.4%	139	-0.75	3.16	273	72
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	71
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	71
Jaye Chapman R 2017 · 5.51 FIP	30	SU	5.51	13.0%	13.4%	3.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	150	70
Rene Coss R 2017 · 5.05 FIP	28	SU	5.05	12.6%	11.5%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	123	69
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	69
David Holman R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	29	SW	5.80	8.9%	10.7%	3.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	5.28	129	67
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	67
Benjamin Sandoval R 2017 · 5.23 FIP	30	SU	5.23	3.4%	12.3%	1.6%	.281	5.65	11.8%	-2.2%	33	+0.42	4.66	146	66
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	65
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	65
Mike McCarthy R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	6.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.78	153	65
Andres Santiago R 2019 · 6.10 FIP	29	SW	6.10	10.9%	13.1%	4.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	291	64
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	10.8%	12.4%	1.16	5.73
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44