Zach Willeman
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 129
ERA5.71
FIP5.71
K%10.0%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%-2.3%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 1 | 19 | 70 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 12% | 2.4 | 34.3% | 11.4% | 22.9% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 1.65 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 1 | 19 | 70 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 12% | 2.4 | 34.3% | 11.4% | 22.9% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 1.84 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 21 | 6 | 80 | 378 | 55 | 48 | 8 | 29% | 3.8 | 10.8% | 15.0% | -4.2% | 2.7% | 5.38 | 5.55 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 21 | 6 | 80 | 378 | 55 | 48 | 8 | 29% | 3.8 | 14.6% | 12.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 5.38 | 4.82 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 33 | 0 | 48 | 209 | 59 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 4.15 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 33 | 0 | 48 | 209 | 59 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.2% | 11.0% | 17.2% | 1.9% | 3.78 | 3.16 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 63 | 37 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.0% | 14.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.85 | 5.86 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 63 | 37 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.4% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 5.85 | 5.02 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 14 | 0 | 18 | 80 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.2% | 17.9% | -2.7% | 5.1% | 7.13 | 6.87 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 14 | 0 | 18 | 80 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.8% | 16.2% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 7.13 | 6.55 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 12 | 11 | 58 | 246 | 33 | 23 | 4 | 92% | 4.8 | 10.9% | 10.3% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 4.34 | 4.51 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 12 | 11 | 58 | 246 | 33 | 23 | 4 | 92% | 4.8 | 13.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 4.34 | 4.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 29 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 12.3% | -2.3% | 2.8% | 5.71 | 5.71 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 29 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.9% | 12.3% | -1.4% | 3.0% | 5.69 | 5.77 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 28 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.4% | 12.5% | -1.1% | 3.3% | 5.76 | 5.89 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.9% | 12.3% | -1.4% | 3.0% | 5.69 | 5.77 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 14 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.4% | 12.5% | -1.1% | 3.3% | 5.76 | 5.89 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 24 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.2% | 12.4% | -1.2% | 3.2% | 5.73 | 5.46 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 96 | 104 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.2% | 12.4% | -1.2% | 3.2% | 5.73 | 5.46 | -0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 138 | 18 | 283 | 1252 | 205 | 169 | 37 | 13% | 2.0 | 16.4% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 5.05 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 13 | 200 | 886 | 145 | 119 | 26 | 13% | 2.0 | 16.4% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Willeman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.71 | 10.0% | 12.3% | 2.8% | — | 5.83 | 11.2% | -1.2% | 122 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.27 | 8.3% | 13.1% | 2.2% | .365 | 4.44 | 11.4% | 3.1% | 109 | -0.83 | 4.15 | 152 | 82 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2029 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 78 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .278 | 6.57 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +1.63 | 4.94 | 194 | 77 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.33 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 254 | 75 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 72 |
| Grant Black R 2025 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 72 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2028 · 5.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.14 | 11.1% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .281 | 4.13 | 12.1% | 4.4% | 139 | -1.01 | 3.26 | 273 | 71 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.34 | 13.0% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 150 | 70 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 70 |
| Rene Coss R 2024 · 5.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.24 | 12.6% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 123 | 69 |
| Noah Song R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 69 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 69 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.18 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .286 | 5.36 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.31 | 209 | 69 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.75 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .292 | 4.46 | 11.6% | 2.4% | 107 | -0.29 | 4.11 | 156 | 68 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 68 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.28 | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.78 | 7.1% | -0.6% | 83 | -0.50 | 4.78 | 115 | 68 |
| David Holman R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.57 | 8.9% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 129 | 68 |
| Benjamin Sandoval R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.34 | 3.4% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .281 | 5.40 | 11.8% | -2.2% | 33 | +0.06 | 4.89 | 146 | 66 |
| Wil Browning R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 65 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 10.8% | 12.4% | 1.16 | 5.72 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |