Zach Willeman
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.73
FIP4.73
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%8.1%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF3030
CTRL5050
CMD3030
K†3040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 8 | 1 | 19 | 70 | 24 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.42 | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 21 | 6 | 80 | 378 | 55 | 48 | 8 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 5.38 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 33 | 0 | 48 | 209 | 59 | 23 | 4 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 50 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 63 | 37 | 10 | 20.0% | 14.6% | 4.5% | 5.85 | 5.71 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 14 | 0 | 18 | 80 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 15.2% | 17.9% | 5.5% | 7.13 | 7.08 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 12 | 11 | 58 | 246 | 33 | 23 | 4 | 10.9% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 4.34 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 33 | 25 | 6 | 15.6% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 33 | 23 | 6 | 16.2% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 33 | 22 | 6 | 16.4% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 5.11 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 31 | 22 | 6 | 16.5% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 5.15 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 29 | 21 | 6 | 16.3% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 5.23 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 27 | 20 | 6 | 15.9% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 5.34 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 15.5% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 5.47 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 138 | 18 | 283 | 1252 | 205 | 169 | 37 | 16.4% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 13 | 200 | 886 | 145 | 120 | 26 | 16.4% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 5.03 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Willeman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 15.6% | 11.5% | 2.8% | — | 5.17 | 16.3% | 5.0% | 141 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Dustin McGowan R 2029 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 86 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 86 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 86 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.84 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.98 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.14 | 2.98 | 306 | 86 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 85 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 85 |
| Collin Balester R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.20 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.20 | 116 | 84 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 84 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.81 | 11.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .281 | 4.04 | 12.1% | 4.4% | 139 | -0.77 | 3.17 | 273 | 84 |
| Vin Mazzaro R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.06 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 126 | 83 |
| Drew Hayes R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 117 | 83 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 117 | 82 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 82 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.29 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.78 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.49 | 3.39 | 212 | 82 |
| Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.37 | 9.8% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .307 | 3.54 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 80 | -0.83 | 2.23 | 173 | 81 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 81 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 80 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.38 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 80 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.14 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .301 | 3.23 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 64 | -0.91 | 3.23 | 171 | 80 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.79 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .311 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.11 | 3.93 | 337 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.