Justin Gonzales

RF Greenville Drive

Age 20 R/R 6'5" / 210 lbs A+ HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #70MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP52ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	A+BOS	49	.186/.271/.186	0	1	6	—	.156/.208/.156
2025	18	ASalem Red Sox	357	.298/.383/.423	4	11	99	—	.273/.341/.388
2026	19	AABOS	85	.239/.357/.380	2	1	88	—	.243/.333/.378
2026	19	A+BOS	422	.271/.393/.463	17	11	99	—	.237/.326/.404
2027PROJ4% MLB	20	MLBBOS	14	.235/.314/.377	0	0	93	0.0
2028PROJ45% MLB	21	MLBBOS	247	.242/.322/.400	8	5	101	0.3
2029PROJ62% MLB	22	MLBBOS	364	.248/.328/.420	13	7	108	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$5M2032Arb-2$8M2033Arb-3$12M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

BB%82

Speed59

wOBA51

wRC+51

ISO45

K%42

Career WAR1 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 55, comp-based) · star 18% · didn't stick 60%

CompsAndy Pages (age 20) · Brett Lawrie (age 20) · Dylan Carlson (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .314 / .377

PA14

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP293

ISO144

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 58

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER58

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED43

scouting grade only

DEFENSE46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+1.4	$8M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$12M	+1.4	$7M	+$0.5M
Totals		$28M		$35M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	172	55	11	4	5	19	20	1	8	3	320	391	517	908	198	340	10	10	399	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A+	Greenville Drive	—	49	43	8	0	0	0	4	11	1	1	3	186	271	186	457		242	22	8	220	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A	Salem Red Sox	—	357	312	93	23	2	4	35	52	8	11	7	298	383	423	806	125	345	15	10	362	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	85	71	17	2	1	2	12	22	1	1	1	239	357	380	737	141	312	26	14	333	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+	Greenville Drive	—	422	350	95	12	2	17	56	79	14	11	3	271	393	463	856	191	305	19	13	382	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	178	37	6	3	3	13	25	1	8	3	208	266	326	591	118	225	13	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	49	45	7	0	0	0	2	15	1	1	3	156	208	156	364		227	31	4	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	357	322	88	21	2	4	25	72	8	11	7	273	341	388	729	115	334	20	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	85	74	18	2	1	2	9	27	1	1	1	243	333	378	712	135	326	32	11	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	422	371	88	10	2	16	35	103	14	11	3	237	326	404	731	167	278	24	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	178	37	6	3	3	13	25	1	8	3	208	266	326	591	118	227	13	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	172	55	11	4	5	19	20	1	8	3	320	391	517	908	198	340	10	10	399	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	406	367	95	21	2	4	27	88	9	12	10	259	325	360	685	101	327	22	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	406	355	101	23	2	4	39	63	9	12	10	285	370	394	764	110	333	16	10	345	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	445	105	12	3	17	44	130	15	12	4	236	325	391	716	155	292	26	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	507	421	112	14	3	19	68	101	15	12	4	266	387	449	836	183	306	20	13	374	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	176	37	6	3	3	13	25	1	8	3	210	266	330	595	119	225	13	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	406	367	95	21	2	4	27	88	9	12	10	259	325	360	685	101	321	22	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	443	105	12	3	17	44	130	15	12	4	237	325	393	718	156	286	26	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	176	37	6	3	3	13	25	1	8	3	210	266	330	595	119	225	13	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	406	367	95	21	2	4	27	88	9	12	10	259	325	360	685	101	321	22	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	443	105	12	3	17	44	130	15	12	4	237	325	393	718	156	286	26	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BOS	4%	617	549	126	19	3	18	50	156	13	10	4	229	309	371	680	142	284	25	8	305	93	-5	+0	-0	-7	+13	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	20	MLB CTX	BOS	4%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	235	314	377	691	142	293	29	7	310	93	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BOS	45%	548	485	115	17	3	18	46	134	12	10	4	236	317	394	711	158	286	24	8	318	101	+1	+0	+0	-6	+12	0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	BOS	62%	591	524	127	19	3	22	50	140	12	11	4	243	324	415	738	172	287	24	8	328	108	+6	+1	+0	-6	+13	1.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	BOS	68%	615	544	134	20	3	24	53	143	13	11	4	247	328	427	755	180	288	23	9	335	113	+9	+1	+0	-7	+13	1.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	BOS	70%	627	554	138	21	3	25	55	144	13	11	4	249	330	434	764	185	289	23	9	338	115	+11	+1	+1	-7	+14	2.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	BOS	70%	634	561	140	21	3	26	56	145	12	11	4	250	331	436	767	186	289	23	9	339	116	+12	+1	+1	-7	+14	2.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	BOS	71%	639	566	141	21	3	26	56	146	12	10	4	250	331	437	768	187	289	23	9	340	116	+12	+0	+1	-7	+14	2.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	BOS	69%	637	564	140	21	3	26	56	146	12	10	4	249	330	434	764	185	289	23	9	338	115	+11	+0	+1	-7	+14	2.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	BOS	69%	631	558	138	21	3	25	56	146	12	8	4	247	328	429	757	182	288	23	9	335	113	+10	+0	-0	-7	+14	1.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	BOS	67%	621	549	134	20	3	24	55	146	12	6	4	244	325	422	748	178	286	24	9	332	111	+8	-0	-1	-7	+13	1.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	BOS	66%	609	540	130	19	3	23	53	145	11	5	4	241	322	414	736	173	284	24	9	327	107	+5	-1	-1	-7	+13	1.0
2038	31	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	595	528	125	18	2	22	51	144	11	3	7	237	317	404	721	167	281	24	9	321	103	+2	-2	-2	-6	+13	0.5
2039	32	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	576	512	118	17	2	20	49	142	10	4	9	231	310	391	701	160	277	25	9	313	98	-1	-3	-3	-6	+12	-0.1
2040	33	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	547	487	109	15	2	18	46	138	9	2	22	225	303	375	678	151	272	25	8	304	92	-5	-8	-4	-6	+12	-1.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	BOS	45%	247	219	53	9	1	8	21	60	5	5	2	242	322	400	722	158	294	24	9	322	101	+0	+0	+0	-3	+5	0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	BOS	62%	364	322	80	13	2	13	31	86	8	7	3	248	328	420	749	173	296	24	9	333	108	+4	+0	+0	-4	+8	0.8
2030	23	MLB CTX	BOS	68%	421	373	94	15	2	16	36	98	9	8	3	252	332	433	765	181	297	23	9	339	113	+6	+0	+0	-5	+9	1.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	BOS	70%	437	387	98	16	2	17	38	100	9	8	3	254	335	439	774	185	298	23	9	343	115	+8	+0	+0	-5	+9	1.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	BOS	70%	446	395	101	17	2	18	39	102	9	7	3	255	336	442	778	187	298	23	9	344	116	+8	+0	+0	-5	+10	1.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	BOS	71%	451	399	102	17	2	18	40	103	9	7	3	255	336	442	778	187	298	23	9	344	116	+9	+0	+0	-5	+10	1.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	BOS	69%	442	392	99	17	2	17	39	102	8	7	3	254	335	439	774	185	297	23	9	343	115	+8	+0	+0	-5	+10	1.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	BOS	69%	433	384	97	16	2	17	38	100	8	5	2	252	333	435	767	182	296	23	9	340	113	+7	+0	-0	-5	+9	1.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	BOS	67%	415	368	92	15	2	16	36	97	8	4	2	250	330	428	758	178	295	23	9	336	111	+5	+0	-0	-4	+9	0.9
2037	30	MLB CTX	BOS	66%	401	356	88	14	2	15	35	95	7	3	2	246	326	420	746	174	293	24	9	331	107	+4	-0	-1	-4	+9	0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	388	345	83	13	1	14	33	94	7	2	5	242	321	410	731	168	290	24	9	325	103	+2	-2	-1	-4	+8	0.3
2039	32	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	373	332	78	12	1	13	32	92	6	2	6	236	315	396	711	160	285	25	9	317	98	-1	-2	-2	-4	+8	-0.1
2040	33	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	353	315	72	11	1	11	29	89	6	1	14	230	307	381	688	151	280	25	8	308	92	-3	-5	-2	-4	+8	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5171	4587	1137	185	22	193	447	1218	99	66	51	248	328	424	752	176	295	24	9	334	106	+56	-7	-5	-55	+112	10.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	143	23	3	24	56	153	12	8	6	248	327	423	750	175	295	24	9	334	106	+7	-1	-1	-7	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	9295	8246	1992	299	46	332	792	2183	183	139	97	242	322	410	732	168	287	23	9	324	106	+79	-11	-7	-88	+177	15.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	139	21	3	23	55	153	13	10	7	241	321	407	728	166	287	24	8	324	106	+6	-1	-1	-7	+14	1.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeromy Burnitz'93-'06 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,579 PA	9.9	6,579	315	74	243*	330*	466*	-62	-31	22.9	21.7
/162	664	32	7	-6.3	-3.1	2.3	pk7: 20
#2Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	9.9	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
/162	664	32	7	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#3Tom Brunansky'81-'94 * career totals — 13 seasons, 7,169 PA	10.8	7,169	271	69	243*	327*	457*	-77	-6	19.0	17.7
/162	664	25	6	-7.1	-0.5	1.8	pk7: 16
#4Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.3
/162	664	22	9	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17
#5Cody Rosslast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,733 PA	5.6	3,733	131	33	264	324	449	-13	-12	15.1	15.6
/162	664	23	6	-2.3	-2.1	2.7	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.8	5,185	197	67	244	321	420	-31	-13	16.0	14.1
/162	664	25	9	-4.0	-1.7	2.0	pk7: 12
#6Max West'38-'48 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,057 PA	4.6	3,057	77	19	245*	335*	446*	-31	+6	13.4	13.4
/162	664	17	4	-6.7	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Gonzales (OGILVIE)	20	45→52	53→58	42→43	53	227/306/368	140	284	9	5	25%	8%	93	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	215/300/346	131	277	14	9	26%	8%	85	+0.2	217/306/408	191	287	24	6	32%	9%	102	+1.5	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Brett Lawrie 2010 · AA	20	47→57	46→55	47→55	44	234/286/363	129	291	13	12	24%	6%	82	+0.0	262/312/422	160	320	13	18	21%	6%	105	+1.7	272/324/442	170	325	14	20	20%	6%	113	+2.1
●Dylan Carlson 2020 · AAA	21	46→53	49→55	49→50	46	231/300/384	153	293	16	11	26%	8%	93	+0.8	242/312/405	163	303	17	8	25%	8%	102	+1.5	242/326/394	152	294	15	4	22%	9%	107	+1.4
●Adam Jones 2006 · AA	20	53→56	47→60	48→50	44	258/316/404	146	331	14	10	25%	6%	103	+1.6	253/303/408	155	322	16	12	26%	5%	99	+1.3	276/313/466	190	309	25	11	19%	4%	119	+3.1
●Junior Caminero 2023 · A	20	46→55	48→65	53→45	45	233/290/368	135	275	17	10	22%	6%	86	+0.3	260/306/451	191	302	26	6	23%	6%	111	+2.1	256/314/491	234	268	35	4	20%	7%	124	+3.1
✕Carter Kieboom 2019 · AA	21	49→55	48→50	47→45	44	243/300/382	139	311	15	7	26%	7%	93	+0.8	233/317/359	126	306	14	5	27%	9%	94	+0.9	221/320/338	116	289	14	3	26%	10%	90	+0.3
●Heriberto Hernández 2021 · A	21	45→48	49→60	46→50	47	220/300/377	156	305	15	6	31%	9%	92	+0.7	206/285/353	147	323	17	6	38%	9%	81	-0.1	222/305/421	199	281	26	11	30%	10%	104	+1.3
●Isaac Paredes 2019 · AA	20	46→53	45→60	48→40	47	228/293/354	125	269	12	3	20%	7%	84	+0.1	240/310/350	110	279	11	4	17%	8%	88	+0.5	244/348/443	199	258	26	1	17%	11%	126	+2.9
●Wil Myers 2011 · A	20	52→54	48→60	47→55	50	255/328/404	148	325	14	8	25%	9%	107	+1.9	247/312/409	162	319	18	8	27%	8%	103	+1.5	251/327/458	207	310	25	22	26%	10%	120	+2.7
●Jackson Chourio 2023 · AA	19	43→53	49→60	51→55	39	217/269/368	151	298	16	12	32%	6%	78	-0.3	255/299/422	167	316	18	23	24%	6%	101	+1.4	275/322/461	186	325	22	23	22%	6%	120	+2.7
●Sal Stewart 2024 · A	20	49→53	43→55	48→50	55	236/321/346	110	286	11	10	21%	11%	92	+0.7	249/321/397	148	298	16	12	21%	9%	104	+1.6	255/323/425	170	297	21	13	21%	8%	109	+1.8
●Roman Anthony 2024 · AA	20	48→57	47→50	49→50	50	230/314/369	139	322	13	11	31%	10%	95	+0.9	254/340/410	156	347	15	12	28%	11%	114	+2.3	261/352/422	161	350	16	11	27%	12%	119	+2.1
●Gary Sánchez 2014 · AA	21	45→53	48→65	47→45	41	228/279/370	142	291	16	6	28%	6%	82	+0.0	248/299/402	154	302	19	6	24%	6%	97	+1.1	245/318/474	229	271	32	4	23%	8%	121	+2.3
●Kyle Blanks 2008 · A	21	47→57	52→55	50→45	42	241/307/408	166	305	20	7	27%	6%	101	+1.4	255/330/422	167	322	20	5	26%	8%	113	+2.3	255/338/422	168	325	20	3	26%	9%	114	+1.5
●Curtis Mead 2022 · A	21	52→57	48→55	47→50	44	259/307/410	151	310	14	9	21%	6%	101	+1.4	256/319/409	153	311	14	9	21%	7%	105	+1.7	252/319/400	148	304	14	10	21%	7%	102	+1.0
●Julio Rodríguez 2021 · A	20	49→55	47→60	48→55	42	242/298/386	143	310	13	6	26%	6%	93	+0.8	285/341/477	192	358	23	23	26%	7%	130	+3.5	288/344/498	210	352	27	29	25%	6%	136	+3.5
●Jonathan Schoop 2013 · AA	21	49→56	44→60	44→45	45	239/291/357	118	286	11	6	21%	6%	82	+0.0	231/273/371	140	280	17	4	24%	4%	80	-0.2	270/309/458	187	314	24	1	22%	4%	115	+2.2
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	49→51	44→50	48→55	46	237/306/359	122	312	12	12	27%	8%	89	+0.5	247/312/378	131	315	13	16	24%	7%	96	+1.0	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
●Jackson Merrill 2024 · AA	21	51→57	47→60	51→50	45	253/296/391	138	291	15	12	19%	6%	93	+0.8	269/311/450	181	310	20	13	20%	6%	112	+2.2	269/313/462	193	313	22	15	21%	6%	117	+2.5
★Justin Upton 2008 · MLB	20	49→59	49→65	49→55	46	245/306/399	154	303	15	13	24%	7%	99	+1.2	261/333/450	189	335	20	13	26%	9%	120	+2.8	276/350/481	205	329	24	19	23%	9%	135	+3.9

Justin Gonzales

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps