Jordan Sanchez
OF Delmarva Shorebirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL Orioles O… | 155 | .333/.438/.605 | 6 | 5 | 65 | — | .188/.268/.326 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROKBAL | 210 | .291/.413/.541 | 7 | 3 | 66 | — | .184/.274/.324 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/ABAL | 357 | .239/.314/.384 | 10 | 7 | 54 | — | .201/.255/.316 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBBAL | 467 | .210/.267/.337 | 11 | 6 | 69 | -0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBBAL | 104 | .221/.279/.368 | 3 | 2 | 77 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBBAL | 186 | .226/.285/.384 | 6 | 3 | 83 | -0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 155 | 129 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 333 | 438 | 605 | 1.043 | 271 | 394 | 20 | 15 | 446 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 15 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 267 | 667 | 933 | 400 | 250 | 33 | 0 | 398 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 195 | 157 | 46 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 57 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 293 | 425 | 529 | 954 | 236 | 423 | 29 | 16 | 415 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 72 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 206 | 306 | 349 | 655 | 143 | 250 | 24 | 10 | 299 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 285 | 255 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 66 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 247 | 317 | 392 | 709 | 145 | 297 | 23 | 8 | 314 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 155 | 138 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 188 | 268 | 326 | 594 | 138 | 227 | 25 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 15 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 200 | 400 | 600 | 200 | 233 | 47 | 0 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 195 | 170 | 31 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 84 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 182 | 280 | 318 | 597 | 135 | 309 | 43 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 72 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 182 | 250 | 318 | 568 | 136 | 231 | 31 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 285 | 263 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 205 | 256 | 316 | 572 | 110 | 271 | 32 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 155 | 138 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 188 | 268 | 326 | 594 | 138 | 235 | 25 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 155 | 129 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 333 | 438 | 605 | 1.043 | 271 | 394 | 20 | 15 | 446 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 210 | 185 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 90 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 184 | 274 | 341 | 615 | 157 | 315 | 43 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 210 | 172 | 50 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 62 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 291 | 413 | 541 | 954 | 250 | 410 | 30 | 15 | 414 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 357 | 328 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 112 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 201 | 258 | 317 | 575 | 116 | 274 | 31 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 357 | 318 | 76 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 83 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 239 | 314 | 384 | 698 | 145 | 288 | 23 | 8 | 311 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 155 | 139 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 187 | 268 | 324 | 592 | 137 | 227 | 25 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 210 | 185 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 90 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 184 | 274 | 341 | 615 | 157 | 304 | 43 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 357 | 329 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 112 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 201 | 258 | 316 | 574 | 116 | 263 | 31 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 155 | 139 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 187 | 268 | 324 | 592 | 137 | 227 | 25 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 210 | 185 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 90 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 184 | 274 | 341 | 615 | 157 | 304 | 43 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 357 | 329 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 112 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 201 | 258 | 316 | 574 | 116 | 263 | 31 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 467 | 431 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 134 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 210 | 267 | 337 | 604 | 126 | 275 | 29 | 6 | 270 | 69 | -17 | -0 | -2 | -3 | +10 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 34% | 303 | 278 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 85 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 217 | 276 | 359 | 634 | 142 | 278 | 28 | 6 | 283 | 77 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 48% | 383 | 351 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 106 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 222 | 282 | 374 | 656 | 152 | 279 | 28 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 437 | 400 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 119 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 226 | 286 | 385 | 672 | 159 | 281 | 27 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -6 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 463 | 424 | 96 | 17 | 2 | 16 | 31 | 125 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 228 | 290 | 392 | 682 | 164 | 282 | 27 | 7 | 302 | 90 | -5 | -0 | -0 | -3 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 56% | 477 | 436 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 33 | 127 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 230 | 292 | 396 | 688 | 167 | 282 | 27 | 7 | 305 | 92 | -4 | -0 | -0 | -3 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 481 | 440 | 101 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 33 | 129 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 229 | 291 | 394 | 684 | 165 | 282 | 27 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -5 | -0 | -0 | -3 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 479 | 438 | 98 | 17 | 2 | 16 | 33 | 129 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 227 | 289 | 389 | 678 | 162 | 281 | 27 | 7 | 300 | 89 | -6 | -0 | -1 | -3 | +10 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 468 | 428 | 97 | 17 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 128 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 224 | 286 | 383 | 669 | 158 | 279 | 27 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -7 | -1 | -2 | -3 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 456 | 417 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 31 | 126 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 221 | 282 | 375 | 657 | 154 | 277 | 28 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -9 | -1 | -2 | -3 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | BAL | 34% | 104 | 95 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 279 | 368 | 647 | 147 | 282 | 28 | 7 | 288 | 77 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 48% | 186 | 170 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 51 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 285 | 384 | 669 | 158 | 284 | 27 | 6 | 297 | 83 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 230 | 210 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 63 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 230 | 290 | 396 | 686 | 165 | 286 | 27 | 7 | 303 | 88 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 253 | 231 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 68 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 233 | 293 | 403 | 696 | 170 | 286 | 27 | 7 | 308 | 90 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 56% | 265 | 242 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 71 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 234 | 296 | 407 | 703 | 173 | 287 | 27 | 7 | 310 | 92 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 265 | 242 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 71 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 233 | 295 | 404 | 699 | 171 | 286 | 27 | 7 | 309 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 262 | 239 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 71 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 231 | 292 | 399 | 692 | 168 | 285 | 27 | 7 | 306 | 89 | -3 | -0 | -1 | -2 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 250 | 228 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 68 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 229 | 290 | 393 | 682 | 164 | 284 | 27 | 7 | 302 | 87 | -4 | -0 | -1 | -2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 240 | 220 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 225 | 286 | 385 | 671 | 159 | 281 | 28 | 7 | 297 | 84 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2055 | 1877 | 433 | 77 | 9 | 72 | 138 | 558 | 23 | 29 | 17 | 231 | 291 | 396 | 688 | 166 | 287 | 27 | 7 | 304 | 83 | -30 | -1 | -4 | -12 | +45 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 137 | 24 | 3 | 23 | 44 | 176 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 231 | 292 | 397 | 689 | 167 | 286 | 27 | 7 | 304 | 83 | -9 | -0 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4879 | 4456 | 980 | 179 | 24 | 152 | 331 | 1375 | 55 | 73 | 44 | 220 | 282 | 373 | 655 | 153 | 280 | 28 | 7 | 290 | 83 | -67 | -2 | -8 | -25 | +90 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 130 | 24 | 3 | 20 | 44 | 183 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 219 | 281 | 370 | 651 | 152 | 278 | 28 | 7 | 290 | 83 | -10 | -0 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 285 PAwOBA .309 → .251 (−58)K% 23.2% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.015 | 21.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.015 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | ×1.015 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.44% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .309 → .251; ISO .145 → .113; BABIP .297 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 72 PAwOBA .292 → .236 (−56)K% 23.6% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.61% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 18.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 3.93% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .292 → .236; ISO .143 → .122; BABIP .250 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 195 PAwOBA .408 → .264 (−144)K% 29.2% → 42.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.23% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 42.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.020 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.820 | ×0.982 | ×0.995 | 17.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.720 | ×0.982 | ×0.995 | 10.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.982 | ×0.995 | 1.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.88% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .408 → .264; ISO .236 → .150; BABIP .423 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 15 PAwOBA .385 → .290 (−94)K% 33.3% → 45.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.993 | ×1.360 | — | — | 45.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 19.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.904 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.899 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 18.33% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 80, 3B 81, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .385 → .290; ISO .400 → .299; BABIP .250 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 155 PAwOBA .437 → .264 (−172)K% 20.0% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.55% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.45% | ÷1.082 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 13.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.27% | ÷0.924 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 8.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.12% | ÷0.992 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 2.89% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 116, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .437 → .264; ISO .271 → .148; BABIP .394 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).