Blake Aita
P
Peoria Chiefs
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.2 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%16.2%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 115 | 463 | 99 | 30 | 13 | 83% | 5.0 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 3.98 | 4.55 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 115 | 463 | 99 | 30 | 13 | 83% | 5.0 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 15 | 15 | 63 | 277 | 72 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 4.2 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 4.12 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 44 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.79 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 128 | 551 | 116 | 48 | 20 | — | — | 21.1% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 5.05 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 63 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.60 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 84 | 353 | 67 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.49 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 84 | 353 | 69 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.44 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 82 | 348 | 68 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 337 | 72 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 6.8% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 76 | 322 | 68 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 303 | 63 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 58 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 4.68 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 52 | 21 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 4.88 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 45 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 54 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 64 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 6.8% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 62 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 58 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 53 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 4.67 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 49 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 4.87 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 93 | 555 | 2343 | 470 | 172 | 78 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.17 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 62 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 34 | 179 | 740 | 132 | 68 | 28 | 89% | 4.7 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 4.03 | 4.84 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 38 | 200 | 828 | 147 | 76 | 31 | 89% | 4.7 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 4.03 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Aita (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.51 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 250 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 90 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 89 |
| Marcel Rentería R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.16 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.03 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 81 | -0.13 | 3.97 | 194 | 89 |
| Sam Highfill R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 89 |
| Thomas Farr R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.93 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 3.9% | .340 | 5.24 | 12.4% | 2.9% | 280 | +0.31 | 4.93 | 408 | 87 |
| Mason Erla R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 14.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .309 | 4.99 | 14.9% | 4.6% | 124 | +1.04 | 3.12 | 206 | 86 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.41 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | +0.05 | 3.41 | 368 | 86 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 86 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 86 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 86 |
| Luis Santos R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 86 |
| Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.78 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 2.0% | .266 | 4.26 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 154 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 262 | 86 |
| Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .297 | 4.47 | 13.4% | 6.7% | 230 | +0.40 | 4.07 | 342 | 86 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.97 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .250 | 6.06 | 13.6% | 4.7% | 74 | +2.09 | 3.97 | 181 | 86 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 86 |
| Connor Noland R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.78 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.26 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 315 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 423 | 85 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.59 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 364 | -0.12 | 4.33 | 485 | 85 |
| Derek Gordon R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.90 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 4.72 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 76 | -0.18 | 4.72 | 146 | 85 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.30 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.81 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.49 | 3.73 | 540 | 84 |
| Chris Clarke R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.76 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .340 | 3.89 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 241 | -0.87 | 3.67 | 291 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 77 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 1.27 | 4.57 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Erasmo Ramírez ('24) | 8 | 78 | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 4.33 |
| Daniel Norris ('22) | 8 | 70 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 1.37 | 4.70 |