Blake Aita
P
Peoria Chiefs
+0.9
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.7 · 2029
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.2%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%11.6%
IP115
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2029
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 23 | 19 | 115 | 463 | 99 | 30 | 13 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 3.98 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 2 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 115 | 487 | 98 | 42 | 15 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 123 | 522 | 112 | 47 | 16 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.30 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 567 | 119 | 47 | 18 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 27 | 27 | 148 | 624 | 134 | 51 | 19 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.39 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 28 | 28 | 155 | 654 | 142 | 53 | 20 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.36 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 29 | 29 | 158 | 666 | 145 | 54 | 21 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 29 | 29 | 157 | 664 | 144 | 54 | 21 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 140 | 53 | 21 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 27 | 27 | 149 | 630 | 135 | 52 | 20 | 21.4% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 144 | 608 | 128 | 51 | 20 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 138 | 584 | 122 | 50 | 20 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 132 | 557 | 114 | 49 | 19 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 107 | 47 | 19 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 99 | 46 | 18 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 467 | 90 | 44 | 18 | 19.4% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.04 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 21 | 123 | 498 | 89 | 40 | 17 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 3.94 | 4.51 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 34 | 200 | 808 | 144 | 65 | 28 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 3.94 | 4.51 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Aita (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.2% | — | 4.40 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 437 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.98 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.36 | 3.84 | 494 | 96 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 95 |
| Colton Eastman R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.97 | 17.0% | 2.8% | 155 | +0.64 | 4.19 | 349 | 94 |
| Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.89 | 14.2% | 7.6% | 150 | -0.19 | 3.89 | 262 | 93 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.37 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | -0.01 | 3.50 | 368 | 93 |
| Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.61 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.41 | 3.05 | 395 | 93 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 93 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .315 | 3.76 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 120 | +0.10 | 3.66 | 229 | 92 |
| James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .338 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 61 | +0.12 | 3.67 | 167 | 92 |
| Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 92 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 91 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.89 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.55 | 252 | 91 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 91 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 91 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 90 |
| Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 90 |
| Reid Johnston R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.74 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .297 | 5.02 | 19.5% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.28 | 3.74 | 204 | 90 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .299 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.5% | 424 | +0.27 | 3.31 | 571 | 90 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 89 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.8% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.06 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 252 | -0.56 | 3.95 | 373 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.3 | $13M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.2 | $12M | +$8M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.0 | $10M | +$5M |
| Totals | $14M | $80M | +$65M | ||