Blake Aita — OGILVIE

Blake Aita P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%16.2%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—50

CMD4555

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	115	463	99	30	13	83%	5.0	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	3.4%	3.98	4.57	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	115	463	99	30	13	83%	5.0	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	3.4%	3.98	4.57	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	115	463	99	30	13	83%	5.0	21.4%	6.5%	14.9%	2.8%	3.98	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	23	22	105	469	108	40	20	96%	4.6	18.1%	9.7%	8.4%	5.2%	4.87	5.66	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	23	22	105	469	108	40	20	96%	4.6	18.1%	9.7%	8.4%	5.2%	4.87	5.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	STL	14	14	57	252	67	26	9	100%	4.1	26.6%	10.3%	16.3%	3.6%	3.92	4.12	—
2026	23	AA RAW	STL	9	8	48	217	41	14	11	89%	5.3	18.9%	6.5%	12.4%	5.1%	6.00	5.10	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	STL	1	1	7	29	5	2	1	100%	6.8	16.2%	7.2%	9.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.74	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	112	498	113	42	21	—	—	22.6%	8.5%	14.2%	4.2%	4.86	5.60	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	106	449	81	32	14	100%	5.6	17.9%	7.0%	10.9%	3.1%	4.61	4.56	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	108	455	86	32	14	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.0%	12.0%	3.1%	4.50	4.45	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	108	455	88	32	14	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.0%	12.5%	3.1%	4.44	4.40	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	106	448	87	32	14	100%	5.9	19.5%	7.0%	12.5%	3.1%	4.44	4.44	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	103	434	84	31	14	100%	6.1	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	3.2%	4.49	4.52	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	98	415	79	31	14	100%	6.1	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	3.4%	4.59	4.65	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	92	390	73	30	14	100%	6.2	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.6%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	86	364	67	29	14	100%	6.2	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	3.8%	4.91	5.03	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	46	194	35	14	6	100%	5.8	17.9%	7.0%	10.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.44	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	72	304	58	21	9	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.0%	12.0%	2.9%	4.38	4.33	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	85	359	70	25	10	100%	6.1	19.4%	7.0%	12.5%	2.9%	4.32	4.28	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	90	380	74	27	11	100%	6.0	19.5%	7.0%	12.5%	2.9%	4.32	4.32	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	92	388	75	28	12	100%	6.1	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.37	4.40	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	89	376	72	28	12	100%	5.9	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	3.1%	4.46	4.52	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	85	359	67	28	12	100%	6.1	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.59	4.69	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	80	338	62	27	12	100%	6.2	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	3.5%	4.76	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	107	640	2700	513	198	83	100%	6.0	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	3.1%	4.46	4.10	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	160	62	26	100%	6.0	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	3.1%	4.46	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		46	41	221	932	160	80	40	89%	4.8	17.1%	8.6%	8.5%	4.3%	4.40	5.12	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	37	200	845	145	73	37	89%	4.8	17.1%	8.6%	8.5%	4.3%	4.40	5.12	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Aita (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	16.2%	7.2%	3.1%	—	4.47	18.8%	11.8%	322	-0.27	—	—	—
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	89
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	89
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	88
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	87
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	87
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	87
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	87
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	87
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	87
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	86
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.25	354	86
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	86
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	86
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	86
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	85
A.J. Cole R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	23	SP	3.85	15.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.252	4.41	19.4%	11.1%	357	+0.56	3.66	529	85
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	85
Derek Diamond R 2023 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	14.4%	6.9%	3.6%	.307	4.58	15.9%	10.1%	151	-0.15	3.53	270	85
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	85
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	99	18.7%	7.3%	1.26	4.59
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01