Chris Clarke

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 29 RHP 6'7" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	AAACHC	35	11	75	4.90	3.29	19.6%	8.0%	—	K 16.9% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.52
2024	26	AAACHC	13	11	45	5.00	4.17	17.2%	8.6%	—	K 14.8% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.24
2025	27	MIX3 levels	9	4	31	2.03	1.78	27.0%	3.3%	—	K 27.0% · BB 3.3% · FIP 1.68
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	1	1	1	4.58	4.58	19.2%	8.6%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBCHC	1	1	8	4.66	4.73	19.3%	9.0%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Zach Stewart (age 28) · Jorge Martinez (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%19.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	53	236	49	13	6	91%	4.8	15.8%	6.7%	9.1%	3.6%	4.39	4.59	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	10	53	236	49	13	6	91%	4.8	20.8%	5.5%	15.3%	2.5%	4.39	3.46	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	120	524	110	25	12	81%	4.6	16.8%	5.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.64	3.87	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	120	524	110	25	12	81%	4.6	21.0%	4.8%	16.2%	2.3%	4.64	3.19	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	35	11	75	336	66	27	5	31%	2.2	16.9%	7.2%	9.7%	1.7%	4.90	3.52	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	35	11	75	336	66	27	5	31%	2.2	19.6%	8.0%	11.6%	1.5%	4.90	3.29	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	13	11	45	198	34	17	5	85%	3.5	14.8%	7.7%	7.0%	2.6%	5.00	4.24	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	13	11	45	198	34	17	5	85%	3.5	14.8%	7.7%	7.0%	2.6%	5.00	4.24	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	13	11	45	198	34	17	5	85%	3.5	17.2%	8.6%	8.6%	2.5%	5.00	4.17	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	4	31	122	33	4	1	44%	3.4	27.0%	3.3%	23.8%	0.8%	2.03	1.68	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	4	31	122	33	4	1	44%	3.4	27.0%	3.3%	23.8%	0.8%	2.03	1.68	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	4	31	122	33	4	1	44%	3.4	27.0%	3.3%	23.8%	0.8%	2.03	1.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CHC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.2%	8.6%	10.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	4	4	25	104	20	9	3	100%	6.2	19.3%	9.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.66	4.73	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	1	1	8	34	7	3	1	100%	8.0	19.3%	9.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.66	4.73	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	8	33	6	3	1	100%	7.7	19.3%	9.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.66	4.35	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	78	26	100%	6.0	19.3%	9.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.66	4.35	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		94	57	325	1416	244	87	35	61%	3.5	17.3%	6.2%	11.1%	2.5%	4.46	3.77	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	35	200	871	150	54	21	61%	3.5	17.3%	6.2%	11.1%	2.5%	4.46	3.77	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 13 IPFIP 1.30 → 1.80 (+0.50)K% 27.7% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.66%	—	×0.810	22.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.26%	—	×1.100	4.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.911	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.30 → 1.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 9 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.68 (+0.70)K% 28.9% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.95%	—	×0.740	21.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.63%	—	×1.180	3.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Cubs · 9 IPFIP 2.87 → 4.52 (+1.65)K% 24.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.680	16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.70%	—	×1.250	3.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷0.868	×1.400	4.36%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 45 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.24 (+0.12)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.17%	—	×0.860	14.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.59%	—	×0.900	7.73%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.079	×1.100	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 75 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.52 (+0.24)K% 19.6% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.64%	—	×0.860	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.04%	—	×0.900	7.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.965	×1.100	1.70%

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATennessee Smokies · 97 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.88 (+0.62)K% 20.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.23%	—	×0.810	16.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.65%	—	×1.100	5.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.010	×1.200	2.76%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 24 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.84 (+0.97)K% 24.5% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.47%	—	×0.770	18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.32%	—	×1.150	6.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷0.938	×1.250	2.84%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+South Bend Cubs · 50 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.59 (+1.02)K% 20.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.54%	—	×0.770	15.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.80%	—	×1.150	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.928	×1.250	3.61%

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Clarke (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	19.2%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.73	19.3%	10.4%	25	+0.15	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	75
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	73
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	72
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	71
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	69
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	69
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	69
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	68
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	68
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	68
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	66
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	66
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	66
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	66
Gabriel Arias R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	29	SP-	4.11	13.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	66
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	66
Markus Solbach R 2021 · 3.63 FIP	29	SP-	3.63	15.4%	8.3%	1.4%	.383	5.37	18.3%	10.7%	63	+1.74	3.34	391	64
Bryan Brickhouse R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	29	SP-	4.31	16.9%	7.2%	3.1%	.262	4.78	18.8%	7.1%	79	+0.47	4.31	214	64
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	63
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	19.3%	8.8%	1.19	4.62
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*