Jose Guevara
P
FCL Mets
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 178 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 105
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
K%22.2%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 10 | 10 | 44 | 174 | 52 | 12 | 0 | 100% | 4.4 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 1.64 | 2.48 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 10 | 10 | 44 | 174 | 52 | 12 | 0 | 100% | 4.4 | 29.9% | 6.9% | 23.0% | 0.0% | 1.64 | 1.55 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 12 | 57 | 250 | 68 | 29 | 7 | 63% | 3.0 | 18.9% | 13.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.83 | 5.68 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 12 | 57 | 250 | 68 | 29 | 7 | 63% | 3.0 | 27.2% | 11.6% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 6.83 | 3.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 9 | 5 | 36 | 160 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 56% | 4.0 | 17.9% | 17.4% | 0.6% | 5.8% | 6.00 | 6.99 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | NYM | 5 | 5 | 35 | 149 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 7.0 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.62 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 71 | 309 | 76 | 36 | 12 | — | — | 24.6% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 5.32 | 5.82 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 37 | 156 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 38 | 162 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 39 | 166 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 39 | 166 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.1% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 38 | 161 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.9% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | NYM | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 223 | 940 | 232 | 81 | 28 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 3.77 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 208 | 73 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 27 | 137 | 584 | 111 | 76 | 21 | 71% | 3.6 | 19.1% | 12.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 5.08 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 40 | 200 | 855 | 163 | 111 | 30 | 71% | 3.6 | 19.1% | 12.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 5.08 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Guevara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.25 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 115 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 86 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 85 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 84 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 84 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 84 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 84 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 83 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 83 |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 82 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 82 |
| Logan Hofmann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.21 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .239 | 6.50 | 9.7% | -12.0% | 47 | +2.29 | 4.21 | 129 | 82 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 81 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.17 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 2.6% | .366 | 3.31 | 22.3% | 15.2% | 61 | -0.86 | 3.25 | 266 | 81 |
| Ricky Castro R 2029 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 81 |
| Ray Gaither R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 81 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 81 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 80 |
| Colin Fields R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 80 |
| Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 80 |
| Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 38 | 24.3% | 8.9% | 1.18 | 4.26 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |