Jose Guevara — OGILVIE

Jose Guevara P FCL Mets

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 178 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%20.0%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	10	44	174	52	12	0	100%	4.4	20.3%	8.6%	11.7%	0.0%	1.64	2.48	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	10	44	174	52	12	0	100%	4.4	20.3%	8.6%	11.7%	0.0%	1.64	2.48	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	10	10	44	174	52	12	0	100%	4.4	29.9%	6.9%	23.0%	0.0%	1.64	1.55	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	12	57	250	68	29	7	63%	3.0	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	3.9%	6.83	5.32	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	12	57	250	68	29	7	63%	3.0	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	3.9%	6.83	5.32	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	12	57	250	68	29	7	63%	3.0	27.2%	11.6%	15.6%	2.8%	6.83	3.84	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	12	5	39	177	48	24	7	42%	3.2	17.9%	17.4%	0.6%	5.8%	6.46	6.99	—
YTD	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	12	5	39	177	48	24	7	42%	3.2	17.9%	17.4%	0.6%	5.8%	6.46	6.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	NYM	8	5	32	144	38	20	6	62%	4.0	26.4%	13.9%	12.5%	4.2%	6.19	4.92	—
2026	21	A RAW	NYM	4	0	7	33	10	4	1	0%	1.8	30.3%	12.1%	18.2%	3.0%	7.71	3.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	54	226	48	24	7	100%	5.4	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	3.0%	4.74	4.64	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	56	235	52	23	7	100%	5.6	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.45	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	57	241	55	22	7	100%	5.7	22.9%	9.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.42	4.33	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	58	244	57	22	7	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	2.9%	4.32	4.26	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	58	244	57	22	7	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.9%	14.5%	2.9%	4.27	4.23	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	57	240	56	22	7	100%	6.3	23.4%	9.0%	14.4%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	26	110	23	11	3	100%	5.2	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	3.0%	4.74	4.64	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	41	173	39	17	5	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.45	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	47	198	45	18	6	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.42	4.33	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	51	215	50	19	6	100%	5.7	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	2.9%	4.32	4.26	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	53	224	52	20	7	100%	5.9	23.5%	8.9%	14.5%	2.9%	4.27	4.23	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	53	224	52	20	7	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.0%	14.4%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	270	1142	262	106	34	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.39	3.95	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	194	78	25	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.39	3.95	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		41	27	140	601	114	78	20	66%	3.4	19.0%	13.1%	6.0%	3.4%	5.09	4.99	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	39	200	861	164	112	29	66%	3.4	19.0%	13.1%	6.0%	3.4%	5.09	4.99	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Guevara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	20.0%	11.5%	3.1%	—	4.47	22.2%	12.4%	166	-0.47	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	88
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	84
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	84
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	84
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	83
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	83
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	83
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	83
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	83
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	83
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	82
Robert Colina R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	20.5%	10.8%	2.5%	.366	3.37	22.3%	15.2%	61	-0.72	3.25	266	82
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	82
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	82
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	53	22.5%	9.6%	1.15	4.47
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59