Jose Guevara
P
FCL Mets
+0.2
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 178 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2030
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%12.1%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2030
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 10 | 10 | 44 | 174 | 52 | 12 | 0 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 1.64 | 2.48 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 19 | 12 | 57 | 250 | 68 | 29 | 7 | 18.9% | 13.1% | 4.0% | 6.83 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | NYM | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 55 | 21 | 7 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 58 | 20 | 7 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 60 | 20 | 7 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 60 | 20 | 7 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 60 | 20 | 7 | 25.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 59 | 20 | 7 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 57 | 20 | 7 | 24.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 50 | 19 | 7 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 47 | 18 | 7 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 22 | 101 | 424 | 83 | 48 | 10 | 19.5% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.56 | 4.19 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 44 | 200 | 842 | 165 | 95 | 20 | 19.5% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.56 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Guevara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.23 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 164 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| David Garner R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 93 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.81 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.20 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.39 | 4.72 | 116 | 91 |
| Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 91 |
| Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 90 |
| RJ Petit R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.50 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | .270 | 3.45 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 177 | -1.05 | 3.09 | 231 | 90 |
| Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 89 |
| Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.90 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .261 | 4.36 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 78 | +0.46 | 3.33 | 149 | 89 |
| Gerson Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.76 | 23.6% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .294 | 5.22 | 21.3% | 2.0% | 17 | +1.46 | 3.66 | 349 | 89 |
| José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.79 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.25 | 3.12 | 543 | 88 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 88 |
| William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 88 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 88 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 87 |
| John Russell R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.98 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.78 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 60 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 158 | 87 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .331 | 6.10 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.65 | 4.45 | 283 | 87 |
| Jacob Rhame R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.00 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 2.9% | .240 | 3.62 | 24.4% | 17.8% | 182 | -0.38 | 2.77 | 251 | 87 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 87 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 87 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 87 |
| Alexis Rivero R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.86 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.05 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 143 | +1.19 | 3.86 | 280 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $8M | $16M | +$8M | ||